South Indian Ocean: ex. FAMÉ (TC 13S)

[HURAKAN]

25/1430 UTC 14.0S 44.7E T2.5/2.5 97S -- South Indian Ocean

NRL: TC 13S!

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 251836

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/25 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/26 06 UTC: 14.3S/43.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 14.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 15.7S/42.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.7S/42.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 17.7S/42.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 18.7S/43.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-

RAPID INTESIFICATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, WITH CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING OVER IT AS A CURVED BAND (OF MORE THAN ONE
COMPLETE TOUR, SEE SSMI AT 1354 AND 1644).

FAME SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING, WITH AN IMPROVIG SOUTHWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, DUE TO A TRANSITING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD (BUT NOT MORE). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
WEAKLY SHEARED. SST ARE CLOSE TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THE NEXT 24
HOURS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE (500-700 HPA) SHOULD DEVELOPP NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND SHOULD LEAD THE STEERING FLOW. ON THE WESTERN THEN
SOUTWESTERN SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK
..
THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

There haven't been any official tropical cyclones in this region yet.

[IceCycloon]

This could be a very strong storm. The waters a very hot and there is not mutch windshear.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JAN 2008 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 14:09:05 S Lon : 44:49:24 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.7C Cloud Region Temp : -56.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

25/2030 UTC 13.8S 44.7E T3.5/3.5 FAME -- South Indian Ocean

[KWT]

Looks pretty decent to me but also quite a small compact storm it appears on the sat.imagery, good banding on that SW side as well it appears.

[Chacor]

I'm assuming the proper name is Famé, with the acute accent.

[Coredesat]

I'd tend to agree - after all, accent marks don't show up in tropical cyclone bulletins. Regardless, it's forecast to make landfall at 60 kt.

WTIO30 FMEE 260028

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 0000 UTC :
14.1S / 44.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/26 12 UTC: 14.2S/44.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 14.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 16.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 17.7S/44.1E OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.0S/44.7E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
FAME SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING, WITH AN IMPROVING SOUTHWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, DUE TO A TRANSITING RIDGE FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. NEVERTHELESS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ONLY MODERATE : POOR IN
THE SOUTH AND RATHER GOOD ON THE EQUATOR SIDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY
SHEARED. SST A
RE CLOSE TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THEN BE RATHER
SLOW.

NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CHANGE THEIR SCENARIO FROM A
"RUN" TO ANOTHER. RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS, WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE
FOR ECMWF AND UKMO GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE THE BEST ON ANALYSIS.

FOR THE MOMENT, FAME IS IN A WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD START
TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF IT.
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DEPENDS ON THE
TRACK AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER MALAGASY COASTS.

[HURAKAN]

Voilà!





NRL: 55 knots!

[HurricaneBill]

Remember its name!

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

Definitely an eye in there. Can an accent mark be added to the storm's name in the title? The TCOP for this area says the name should be Famé.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Fame is changing direction

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm, TC strength in 12 hours.

255
WTIO30 FMEE 261245

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 14.4S/44.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.3S/45.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 16.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 18.0S/46.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 18.5S/47.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 17.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0 -
FAME IS LITTLE SYSTEM. IT HAS INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE FRIDAY 25 AND IS
BECOMING AGAIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAKING A BREAK
WITHIN THE END OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH-RES VISIBLE CHANNEL OF METEOSAT9 (MSG) SHOWS A CURVED BAND
PATTERN
WRAPPED AROUND 11 TENGHS. LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY. IT IS
EXPECTED
TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS UNDERGOING STEERING
FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND
500HPA)AND KEEPS ON
INTENSIFYING WITHIN A
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE FORECASTED TOMORROW EVENING.=

[IceCycloon]

Nrl :

Fame,
974mb - 65kts