South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 17S

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:12pm WDT on Wednesday the 6th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

At 11am WDT, a tropical low was located near 15.8S 103.1E and moving slowly
east. Currently the environment is unfavourable for further development and the
low is expected to track further east over the next few days and move out of the
region. There are no other significant tropical lows evident and the likelihood
of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Thursday : Moderate
Friday : Moderate
Saturday : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Chacor]

Uhm, that's misleading. It's low to develop in 90 to 110 East. It's still high for east of 110E.

[HURAKAN]

Partially exposed. Still getting 2.0

06/1430 UTC 16.0S 104.5E T2.0/2.0 92S -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 104.0E TO 17.3S 108.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 104.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 104.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061537Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA REVEAL THAT A BURST OF ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS ON THE EQUATOR-
WARD SIDE IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX. HOWEVER,
THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ARE BUFFETING
THIS DISTURBANCE WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
RESULTING IN DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED MULTI-
DIRECTIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE
AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENTS IN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071930Z.//

[HURAKAN]

06/2030 UTC 16.1S 105.0E T2.5/2.5 92S -- South Indian Ocean

TS intensity.

[Crostorm]

17SNONAME.35kts-996mb

[Squarethecircle]

Looks just barely like a TS, maybe 35 knots max.

[Coredesat]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 6th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant lows currently in the region however a tropical low
near 16S 103E is expected to move east and enter the area late on Friday. In
combination with an expected increase in monsoonal activity across the region it
is likely a significant system will become established in waters off the North
West coast over the weekend.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Squarethecircle]

I'd say that's a little bit of an understatement...

[Coredesat]

Well, remember, that outlook is for the area 110E-125E. It's still west of that area, hence the "low".

[Squarethecircle]

That's an odd way of doing things.

[Coredesat]

Not really, when you think about it. Obviously, if it's not close to the area, then the probability of a tropical cyclone occurring in the area today is pretty low.

[HurricaneRobert]

NRL has it up as 17S NoName

[Chacor]

Deep convection has expanded.

[HURAKAN]

Nicely looking.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0650UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a tropical low was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal one south [16.1S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal five east [105.5E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots reaching 30/40 knots in the western quadrant with
rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 07 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.3 south 106.7 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 08 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.3 south 108.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 07 February 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 07/02/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 105.5E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm (28 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (109 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: n/a
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 07/1800: 16.3S 106.7E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 992
+24: 08/0600: 16.3S 108.0E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 992
+36: 08/1800: 16.1S 109.4E: 080 (150): 030 (055): 992
+48: 09/0600: 16.3S 110.8E: 100 (185): 035 (065): 988
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis gives DT number of 2.5 using shear analysis averaged over 3 hours. The low has shown signs of development in the past 24 hrs with deep convection closer to the low level centre, however, moderate shear over the system persists with deep convection confined to the southwest of the centre. In the longer term the system is likely to gradually intensify as it encounters higher SSTs and lower shear.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

07/0830 UTC 16.6S 105.4E T3.0/3.0 17S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 7th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are no significant lows currently in the region however a tropical low
near 16.0S 105.0E is expected to move east and enter the area late on Friday. In
combination with an expected increase in monsoonal activity across the region it
is likely a significant system will become established in waters off the North
West coast over the weekend.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :High
Sunday :High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[P.K.]

WTAU05 APRF 071219
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S106E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1213UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a tropical low was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal three south [16.3S]
longitude one hundred and six decimal one east [106.1E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots in the western quadrant, extending to within 120
nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours. Rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 08 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.5 south 107.4 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 08 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.4 south 108.5 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 07 February 2008.

WEATHER PERTH