Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Saturday the 2nd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
There are no significant tropical lows evident at this time. However, there has
been increased convection over tropical waters. There are indications that a
tropical low is forming in the vicinity of 11S 099E. This low is expected to
persist over the next few days with no strong indication of further development.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
REMARKS
NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of ****
tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. ****
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7S 83.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 021432Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CON-
VECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DEVELOPING LLCC IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
Could become our next player!
Why not? 
