Coral Sea: HAMISH - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Clearly continuing to deepen. Eye's probably only two or three pixels large on NRL.

[CrazyC83]

07/1430 UTC 18.9S 149.5E T7.0/7.0 HAMISH -- Southwest Pacific

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAR 2009 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 18:52:59 S Lon : 149:48:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.2mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -60.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Ed Mahmoud]

wow



SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005
WTPS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
—-
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z—- NEAR 18.5S 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 149.3E

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:45am on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Ayr to
Gladstone. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities
from Gladstone to Hervey Bay.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, ELEVATED SEA LEVELS and LARGE WAVES are likely to impact
on the Whitsunday Islands during Sunday morning.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 1:00 am EST was estimated to be 155 kilometres northeast
of Hayman Is and 305 kilometres east of Townsville, moving southeast at 18
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a very significant threat to coastal and
island communities about the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected
to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48
hours.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and
Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities
between Bowen and Shoalwater Bay during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected about coastal and island communities between
Gladstone and Hervey Bay within 24 hours, however they may develop within 48
hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers
between Bowen and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.9 degrees South 149.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 927 hectoPascals

People between Ayr and Gladstone should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Gladstone and Hervey Bay should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 08 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAR 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 19:00:59 S Lon : 149:41:58 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 902.8mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 7.0 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Wow 6.9 is pretty impressive, I suspect the pressure is also lower then the offical 927mbs at the moment.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, that is a perfect looking cyclone. Warm pinhole eye, very symmetrical, intense convection, the works. It looks a nudge stronger than 130 knots.

[tropicana]

Sun March 8 2009
midnight:
ISLANDS in the Whitsundays were being evacuated Saturday night and northern Queensland placed on severe alert over the escalating threat from cyclone Hamish.
South Molle and Long islands were evacuated on Saturday, with other islands to follow Sunday, although tourists were choosing to stay on some islands with cyclone-proof resorts, such as Hamilton.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said Hamish could bring devastation similar to that from cyclone Larry, a category-five cyclone which devastated Innisfail in 2006.
"On current predictions it does appear that if this crosses the coast, it could be the worst that we have seen since cyclone Larry," she said.
"It is already clear that if it does cross the coast at any point, it is a serious cyclone that will cause extensive damage."
The Premier has declared a disaster situation which will allow authorities to enforce evacuations in towns from Townsville to Maryborough if necessary.
Last night residents in Queensland's north were warned that cyclone Hamish had been upgraded to a category-four storm and was intensifying quickly.
Located 250 kilometres north-east of Townsville, and with wind gusts of between 225 and 280km/h at its centre, cyclone Hamish is expected to lash the Whitsunday Islands Sunday before making landfall in the Mackay area within the next day or so.
A severe cyclone warning has been issued for areas from Lucinda to St Lawrence, and a cyclone watch is in place for island communities from St Lawrence to Hervey Bay.
High storm surges are being forecast along the coast.

-justin-

[Squarethecircle]

Might there be something wrong with the pressure reading here?

Another:

865 is a bit low...

[CrazyC83]

865mb is a land observation?

I'd say the pressure is 914mb and the intensity is 145 kt. It is a small storm so I think Atlantic pressure-wind relationships make more sense here.

[Squarethecircle]

865mb is a land observation?

No, it's from their multiplatform analysis majigger. If it was a land observation that would be something.

[CrazyC83]

865mb is a land observation?

No, it's from their multiplatform analysis majigger. If it was a land observation that would be something.

I was gonna say, this would be not only the strongest storm ever on Earth with that (and doing so with that size would require winds around 180 kt), but this would have intensified at Wilma-like rates to get there...after all, at 1800Z yesterday, buoy observations supported a pressure around 954mb.

[Squarethecircle]

Obviously they have some kinks to work out, yes.

[Rod Hagen]

You will find radar images at http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR241.loop.shtml

Cheers

Rod

[Squarethecircle]

Eye has filled in a bit, but has become more round; if it empties out again then the storm will look absolutely gorgeous.

[CrazyC83]

07/2030 UTC 19.7S 150.2E T6.5/7.0 HAMISH -- Southwest Pacific

[Rod Hagen]

Eye has filled in a bit, but has become more round; if it empties out again then the storm will look absolutely gorgeous.

Not if you live on Heron Island, by the look of the track! Lets hope the recently rebuilt research station there survives.

Bundaberg looks as if it is very much in harms / Hamish's way, too. With a population of around 50,000 that would be very nasty.

It is a long , long time since anything as big as this has got so close to Bundaberg. Might be time to start buying up rum and sugar futures!

[HURAKAN]