ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Derek Ortt]

small system

[Derek Ortt]

GFS slower after about 6 days than previously and trough farther east

[Derek Ortt]

GFS stalls the system just east of Miami and then makes a sharp turn NNE. Now waiting to see if this hits NE or Canada

GFS flip flopping at the long range... what else is new

[cycloneye]

A little bit closer to PR in this 06z run than the 00z.

[Derek Ortt]

Landfall in Nova Scotia

[cycloneye]

Is building a CDO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Landfall in Nova Scotia

So now the gfs is not showing 90L even making it into the gulf? Correct me if i'm wrong but wasn't there at least 3 or 4 runs in a row showing a north central gulf landfall after coming through south florida? What has changed? or changing?

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL

A little more south than the 00z run.

830
WHXX04 KWBC 151118
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 32.0 270./17.1
6 12.2 33.8 263./17.6
12 12.1 35.5 265./16.3
18 11.7 36.8 254./13.4
24 11.5 38.4 263./15.4
30 11.5 40.1 271./16.8
36 11.4 41.7 265./15.5
42 11.7 42.9 284./12.7
48 11.9 44.3 277./13.8
54 12.3 45.8 285./15.5
60 12.8 47.4 287./15.9
66 13.1 48.9 284./15.0
72 13.5 50.3 285./14.3
78 14.1 51.8 292./15.8
84 14.6 53.5 286./16.9
90 15.0 55.2 283./16.5
96 15.4 56.7 283./15.5
102 15.8 58.2 288./15.0
108 16.7 59.5 302./15.2
114 17.3 61.1 291./16.1
120 17.7 62.7 285./16.1
126 18.4 64.0 300./13.9

[Gustywind]

06z GFDL

A little more south than the 00z run.

830
WHXX04 KWBC 151118
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 32.0 270./17.1
6 12.2 33.8 263./17.6
12 12.1 35.5 265./16.3
18 11.7 36.8 254./13.4
24 11.5 38.4 263./15.4
30 11.5 40.1 271./16.8
36 11.4 41.7 265./15.5
42 11.7 42.9 284./12.7
48 11.9 44.3 277./13.8
54 12.3 45.8 285./15.5
60 12.8 47.4 287./15.9
66 13.1 48.9 284./15.0
72 13.5 50.3 285./14.3
78 14.1 51.8 292./15.8
84 14.6 53.5 286./16.9
90 15.0 55.2 283./16.5
96 15.4 56.7 283./15.5
102 15.8 58.2 288./15.0
108 16.7 59.5 302./15.2
114 17.3 61.1 291./16.1
120 17.7 62.7 285./16.1
126 18.4 64.0 300./13.9

[Scorpion]

GFDL



HWRF

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 151144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MusicCityMan]

Possibly a double dose for the sunshine state?

[Gustywind]

Looking fairly organized...


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 7N29W WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.
$$
WALLACE

[cyclonic chronic]

im sure this is a t.d. now. especially since the vis. sat is getting more frames in the loop. i agree that if this was closer to a landmass it would've been upgraded earlier. the NHC is gonna be a busy place the next few weeks. the only thing limiting it now is its size. it should shrink a bit as its circulation organizes, but look out when it does. i pray this isnt another 04 for us in fl. some of the model runs look omnious for us the next 2 weeks or so. this figures. everyones been like oh this season is slow we'll be ok this year. now we have the potential to be hit by 2 or 3 tropical systems in a row!! wait till the rest of s. fl wakes up and sees their local met. on t.v. talkin bout we're in the cone and theres a few more that could follow. gonna be an interesting week round here.

[cyclonic chronic]

this is why i love being a weather geek and a hurricane nerd!!

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak T numbers 2.5/2.5

Tropical Storm numbers.

15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Thunder44]

SSD Dvorak T numbers 2.5/2.5

Tropical Storm numbers.

15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Despite the QS pass this morning, I wouldn't be suprised if they went straight to a TS with this one. The center has probably tighten up some since then.

[Blown Away]

SSD Dvorak T numbers 2.5/2.5

Tropical Storm numbers.

15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

With those #'s this has to be a TD at 11am. The Ana and TD3 cones are going to overlap I bet!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, this has a sat presentation of a TS, but I bet they will wait for obs so an upgrade is defensible. Conservative approach this far from from the NHC. QS pass is not so conclusive as to warrant the upgrade.

[cyclonic chronic]

uncontminated 30Kt flags north of center and one 40Kt flag west. the 40Kt flag is surrounded by rain contaminated flags, so kinda unreliable. but the flags to the north look legit. its also entering the area that Ana was in when she started to get regenerative convection.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
INVEST 90L
Saturday 15aug09 Time: 0651 UTC
Latitude: 12.35 Longitude: -32.42
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 21 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 1000 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 48 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.54
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.89
RMW: 139 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1011 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 15 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu