ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[OverlandHurricane]

Last night in the chat room we were cracking ugly jokes about this system looked, but not anymore. It's got good rotation now.

Book 'em, Danno.

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[vbhoutex]

I just read at another forum that we now have Tropical Storm Danny, not sure if I am allowed to say what site.

Information coming in indicates that it will soon be named TS Danny, but nothing has been said officially yet that I am aware of.

[KWT]

Yep this is pretty certain to be tropical storm Danny, jumped right from invest to TS strength, pretty impressive!

What will be interesting to see is the NHC track and exactly where they decide to put it, my guess is they will have just offshore throughout but mention that the cone is key and that sort of stuff!

[HURAKAN]

Latest on Danny

[MGC]

Maybe a highly sheared TD? Needs to start wrapping some convection to really get going. But, with all the shear about that might be difficult. Looks to be moving to the WNW....might be a threat to NC....MGC

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 261417
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 37 20090826
140730 2608N 07243W 6432 03885 0113 +069 -009 058021 022 999 999 03
140800 2607N 07246W 6432 03886 0112 +069 -009 060021 021 999 999 03
140830 2607N 07248W 6432 03884 0113 +068 -009 059022 023 999 999 03
140900 2606N 07251W 6433 03883 0113 +067 -009 059022 023 999 999 03
140930 2606N 07253W 6432 03884 0113 +068 -017 056024 026 011 000 03
141000 2605N 07256W 6432 03885 0110 +071 -040 049027 028 006 000 03
141030 2604N 07259W 6432 03885 0111 +071 -046 049027 028 007 000 03
141100 2604N 07301W 6432 03885 0109 +074 -087 046028 028 005 000 03
141130 2603N 07304W 6432 03885 0111 +073 -086 045027 028 999 999 03
141200 2603N 07307W 6432 03885 0108 +076 -103 044026 026 999 999 03
141230 2602N 07309W 6432 03885 0106 +077 -103 044026 026 010 000 03
141300 2602N 07312W 6432 03887 0110 +075 -108 043026 026 007 000 03
141330 2601N 07315W 6431 03887 0112 +074 -104 042025 025 007 000 03
141400 2601N 07317W 6432 03887 0113 +074 -105 041023 024 006 000 03
141430 2600N 07320W 6433 03885 0114 +072 -096 041023 024 004 000 03
141500 2600N 07322W 6433 03884 0113 +073 -097 044025 026 005 000 00
141530 2559N 07325W 6432 03885 0116 +071 -102 044026 026 006 000 03
141600 2559N 07328W 6432 03885 0112 +074 -101 047025 026 007 000 03
141630 2558N 07330W 6433 03884 0110 +074 -099 049026 026 005 000 03
141700 2558N 07333W 6433 03884 0111 +074 -097 050025 025 006 000 03

Someone else please take over.

[Aric Dunn]

I sure hope the models are right.. cause if that slightly crazy hard right turn does not materialize soon.. it probably wont happen...

[HURAKAN]

I think they're going back to base.

[Bocadude85]

It looks like that Tampa Bay shield is up for the state of Florida.

This year really does remind me of 2004. East coast trough in August followed by strong ridging in September.... not saying this year is going to be anything like 2004 just saying it seems similar to me.

[Evil Jeremy]

Are the 12z models going to have the latest recon data? Didn't they get upper atmosphere data last night?

[jenmrk]

I just read at another forum that we now have Tropical Storm Danny, not sure if I am allowed to say what site.

Information coming in indicates that it will soon be named TS Danny, but nothing has been said officially yet that I am aware of.

I read it at Eastern Us Weather, I am sorry for jumping the gun, maybe I am better off lurking...lol!

[HURAKAN]

Danny in reference to the US

[Sanibel]

You can imagine the panic if the CV belt was more favorable and Danny was a category 4 barrelling down this Floyd-like track!

[HURAKAN]

885
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


589
WTNT25 KNHC 261430
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 70.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 70.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...135NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


471
WTNT45 KNHC 261512
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16. DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.9N 70.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[x-y-no]

I just read at another forum that we now have Tropical Storm Danny, not sure if I am allowed to say what site.

Information coming in indicates that it will soon be named TS Danny, but nothing has been said officially yet that I am aware of.

I read it at Eastern Us Weather, I am sorry for jumping the gun, maybe I am better off lurking...lol!

They're reacting to the renumber message, which tolakram posted earlier in this thread.

Our policy is to wait for the official announcement, since it does happen from time to time that the renumber messages are wrong.

[JTE50]

i'ts danny now

[ConvergenceZone]

This year seems to be the year of weak storms(outside of Bill) due to bad conditions(shear etc), don't see anything right now that's going to change that....

[KWT]

Maybe a highly sheared TD? Needs to start wrapping some convection to really get going. But, with all the shear about that might be difficult. Looks to be moving to the WNW....might be a threat to NC....MGC

How about a highly sheared tropical storm Danny. I have to admit I'm somewhat doubtful winds are as high as 40kts right now, I think 35kts would have been closer to the truth if they were determined to upgrade this right to TS status.

[x-y-no]

i'ts danny now

Yep. The advisory is out.

[jenmrk]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al052009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908261414
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
DANNY, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2009, TS, R, 2009082412, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL052009
AL, 05, 2009082312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 480W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2009082318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 500W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2009082400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 520W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2009082406, , BEST, 0, 159N, 540W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2009082412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 560W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 580W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082500, , BEST, 0, 184N, 599W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082506, , BEST, 0, 202N, 616W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082512, , BEST, 0, 217N, 633W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 228N, 650W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082600, , BEST, 0, 233N, 667W, 40, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082606, , BEST, 0, 238N, 685W, 40, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2009082612, , BEST, 0, 246N, 700W, 40, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 150, 90, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANNY, M,