ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Sanibel]

That improved surface convergence should snap it together. For goodness' sakes it already looks like a tropical storm!

[I-wall]

agreed.. but still some elongation to the NE .. multiple vorts are possible..

Does anyone know where we can get the lates quickscat images?

[wxman57]

12Z Euro moves it into the Caribbean near 15N (had to do a 0.25mb analysis for it to show up) then dissipates it. But indicates major weakness in ridge to its north at that time. 12Z Canadian still north of the eastern Caribbean near 20N/60W then out to sea. 12Z GFS focuses on wrong area and loses 94L. 12Z NOGAPS similar to Canadian. Tropical models keep it NE of the Caribbean. So the Euro is the outlier.

Using the 1245Z and 1845Z images, I'm estimating it moved toward 276 deg at about 6-7 kts in the past 6 hours. Does appear to be slowing down.

[x-y-no]

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

Very premature statement. Its unlikely that it will effect us right now, but things always change in the tropics.

I also don't see anything in the linked discussion which makes that assertion:

In the extended period...Wednesday through Sat...a short wave over the north
Great Plains dives southeast into the East Coast trough...deepening the trough
again. This shoves the upper ridge southeast re-establishing the SW flow
over S fla Thursday and into the weekend. At the low levels...an inverted
trough in the SW North Atlantic will move toward S fla...merging this trough
with a with a broad surface trough off the east U.S. Coast that extends
SW across the central fla peninsula. Being on the S side of this
trough means a slight increase in the chances of precipitation over
S fla...favoring the interior and east.

Not one word about 94L.

[Sanibel]

CMC looks like a Hugo into South Carolina or the Outer Banks.

I question it because the synoptic they show is a recurve synoptic yet they bee-line a hurricane towards the east coast under it.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Lonny it is too early to be making statements that this system will not affect us. Lets refrain from that until we have more proof. By the way there is no mention in that discussion about the system 94L will be playing a role yet in Fla weather because the system is more than a week away. Like over 2000 miles away.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro moves it into the Caribbean near 15N (had to do a 0.25mb analysis for it to show up) then dissipates it. But indicates major weakness in ridge to its north at that time. 12Z Canadian still north of the eastern Caribbean near 20N/60W then out to sea. 12Z GFS focuses on wrong area and loses 94L. 12Z NOGAPS similar to Canadian. Tropical models keep it NE of the Caribbean. So the Euro is the outlier.

Which have not handled this well so far, so I'm not trusting them now

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro moves it into the Caribbean near 15N (had to do a 0.25mb analysis for it to show up) then dissipates it. But indicates major weakness in ridge to its north at that time. 12Z Canadian still north of the eastern Caribbean near 20N/60W then out to sea. 12Z GFS focuses on wrong area and loses 94L. 12Z NOGAPS similar to Canadian. Tropical models keep it NE of the Caribbean. So the Euro is the outlier.

Using the 1245Z and 1845Z images, I'm estimating it moved toward 276 deg at about 6-7 kts in the past 6 hours. Does appear to be slowing down.

what tropical models are talking about?.. cause the BANM and BAMD dont even make to 18N they have it south of PR.. which says that maybe a deeper system will stay farther south..
gfdl loses it.. as well..

[wxman57]

Does anyone know where we can get the latest QuikSCAT images?

QuikSCAT storm page:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl

QuikSCAT for 94L:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

They come in twice a day (at most). Once in the pre-dawn hours (satellite ascending pass) and once in the late afternoon (satellite descending pass). Still too early for the afternoon pass.

[Sanibel]

[lonelymike]

wxman57 has you previous thinking about 94L changed any from this morning?

[wxman57]

18Z model guidance just arrived. Still 25 kts and still "disturbance 94L" for header. 12.1N/47.5W. They say movement 290/12. I don't see that in 6hr movement. Didn't look at 12hr.

[Sanibel]

Much bigger convection coverage than last night:

[cycloneye]

Impressive overall well structured system.

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing the center start to consolidate closer to 14N at this time on the visible. That area near 12N appears to be a small vortex rotating around the larger cyclonic envelope

[Sanibel]

It's amazing how fast these things can pull-up.


The fuel mix is a little weak but it is starting to come together.

[Aric Dunn]

what is the deal with the ssd site and the floater every afternoon. it stops updating for a couple hours or so .. its really annoying.

[Derek Ortt]

if you're having trouble with the SSD site and it not updating, go here

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[Aric Dunn]

if you're having trouble with the SSD site and it not updating, go here

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

Floater is not close enough ..

[Recurve]

Thanks for the links Derek.