ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

Latest microwave with developing banding highlighted in white and the SSD center estimate circled.. as you can see the curved banding fits quite well with both center estimates. There is very little to no evidence of a circ farther north at least not with the latest sat loops and this microwave image. Its very possible that we have a TD now and that NHC will not upgrade till morning. convection is gradually increasing but still needs to increase near the center I think for them to upgrade.

[tolakram]

It's got all the moisture wrapped up.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[KWT]

I still think this system is down near 12N though I can see what Derek is saying as well, there is some banding occuring closer to 15N at the moment. Really has slowed down in a big way as well.

[attallaman]

So no FL or GOM threat?

[jinftl]

Latest model runs...tracks north, south, and over puerto rico



Compared to prior run...even the northernmost HWRF model (purple) has come shifted a bit to the south (example, new run shows system crossing 15N at 51 or 52W, prior run had it crossing 15N at 50W).

[Evil Jeremy]

So no FL or GOM threat?

To early to tell.

[jinftl]

NOAA is bullish on development in their latest graphic...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[Aric Dunn]

its really starting to organize much more rapidly ... maybe TD at 11pm .. probably in the morn though..

[abajan]

So no FL or GOM threat?

That's just the sort of question we were afraid HURRICANELONNY's last post would generate. Look, it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land - even the Lesser Antilles.

[jinftl]

A good rule of thumb for any system in that area this time of year.....when it gets north of your latitude, you are probably in the all-clear. Any system, given the location and time of year, always must be watched with interest.

So no FL or GOM threat?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes I would have to agree with Abajan's sentiment here. It is way to early to tell yet regarding any sort of threat to Fla. Just keep up with the latest updates from the Hurricane Center.

[Ivanhater]

Wide view...looking good

[GeneratorPower]

This looks like a large system. It spans nearly 15 degrees of latitude.

[jinftl]

Agree....it is large. The million dollar question: where will a center emerge??? Big difference in forecast tracks on just a 1 or 2 deg difference in latitude for the center.

This looks like a large system. It spans nearly 15 degrees of latitude.

[KWT]

I'm starting to think Derek may have been right about where the center is going to emerge, will be interesting to watch!

[storms NC]

I am seeing the center start to consolidate closer to 14N at this time on the visible. That area near 12N appears to be a small vortex rotating around the larger cyclonic envelope

Yeah I see it at 13.8 N 47 west. Moveing about 300 degrees there about.

[otowntiger]

Convection continues to diminish this afternoon. This is one of the slowest developming systems I believe I've ever watched, or maybe it just seems that way because I'm bored. It has a slightly better structure than yesterday, but the convection continues to be pitiful. I'm still not sure this one will develop. My guess is Ortt won't need to worry about wearing a dunce cap.

Once again, all the talk and fretting about where it will go won't matter much if it's nothing by the time it gets there.

[tpr1967]

Maybe 14 deg north at 51 or 52 west. Wait and see i quess.

[storms NC]

NOGAPS seem to have to going in the right track as for right now. don't know if it will stay right.

[otowntiger]

Maybe 14 deg north at 51 or 52 west. What and see i quess.

Looks more like 13 to me for what it's worth (which is really nothing).