ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

Sanibel · #1041 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:52 pm

Beware the naked spiral!

Aric Dunn · #1042 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:09 pm

seriosly.. that little circ is pretty well defined.. lol
and to add another only if statement.. lol

only if the shear dropped some.. lol it may actually do so but also maybe to late for the little guy by that time.. hehe cant believe im still watching this lol

Aric Dunn · #1043 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:12 pm

I just love throwing the NAM in here at times like this

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#1044 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:Now I think it's really time to get weak wave, non-invest Fred out of the Active Storms section and back to Talkin' Tropics.

A reminder to all - for the second time in this thread now:

If you have an concern with how our threads are categorized please PM a moderator. Voicing it on the open board just takes-up space especially when 5-more people chime-in in response. The mods have to come back later and delete a dozen posts of the same thing, when a simple PM would address the concern - at least by providing an explanation.

Thanks.

#1045 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:42 pm

To add about what fellow moderator jasons said,in general terms our policy is that we always leave threads here after the last advisory or Tropical Weather Outlook has been written for a couple of days to allow members who may want to still make comments about any system in particular to do so,unless there are more replies or advisorys or TWO,s resume.If I recall,the last TWO for the ex Fred system was made at 2 AM EDT on the 17th of September. After 2 days,if we dont see anymore replies or there are any new resumption of Advisories or TWO,s,then the thread is moved to the archieves forum.

perk · #1046 Postby **perk** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:56 pm

KUEFC wrote:What gets me about this place, is nobody ever seems to listen to the pro mets.

We do listen to them, but we have a right to look at the situation and form our own opinion.This is a forum not a classroom, and sometimes the none pro-mets actually get it right.

#1047 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:54 pm

The wheel goes round and round!!!!

Emmett_Brown · #1048 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:05 pm

I know it's naked, and I know it's small, but that is a closed circ and there wasn't one yesterday. Fat lady has been waiting stage left for about 4 days, hasn't sung yet.

#1049 Postby **AdamFirst** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:17 pm

The little swirl that could. I expect maybe another dose of pulsing convection tonight, only for it to die by morning.

Aric Dunn · #1050 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:25 pm

AdamFirst wrote:The little swirl that could. I expect maybe another dose of pulsing convection tonight, only for it to die by morning.

Actually its really easy to notice when a convective burst is about to happen, which may happen soon.
if you watch the low level cloud deck with any system you will see it first thicken. meaning the spiral bands will will no longer be separated with no clouds in between. if you look at the loops the low level clouds have thickened a lot today so expect a burst of convection sometime soon.

Emmett_Brown · #1051 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:26 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

The wheel goes round and round!!!!

It's kind of almost comical it is so small. Sometimes small circs spin up quickly, of course, they can also die just as quickly if the conditions are not just right. I should probably expect this to just dissipate shortly, but you figure SOMETHING has to pop at some point.

#1052 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:32 pm

I tracked that little eddy back to beneath a small burst of convection near 24N/59W last night. The convection died, and the eddy is zipping rapidly westward now. I'm measuring 170nm in 9 hours, or about 19 kts. Pressures just north of it are in the 1017-1018mb range. To the south, I see a few 1014-1015mb readings. Could be a pressure of 1012mb or so in the center of the eddy.

Without deep convection and significant convergence to generate convection and with lots of dry air in its path, it should gradually open up and die out over the next day or two. Development chances slim.

Aric Dunn · #1053 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:36 pm

the circ is quite a bit larger than what we see. its just that the clouds lines are not so visible due to dry sinking air . but moisture will increase along is track so at the least some more definition with the circ could occur and well as i stated before a convective burst should soon happen.
this loop shows the larger circ extending east and west quite a bit.. and notice the cloud base thicken..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

also convergence is on the increase a decent amount over the last few hours which again points towards a convective burst soon.

hehe ..

Steve H. · #1054 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:48 pm

Yes, my lawn needs a breezy thundershower in Palm Bay. j/k. Where there's a spin there's always potential. Looks like Pebbles though compared to Fred. THe ridge will be building down the eastern seaboard this weekend so we'll see if conditions improve or get worse.

Aric Dunn · #1055 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:05 pm

more NAM anyone ..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

YouTube · #1056 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:22 pm

How many times will it be said "this should open up and die out" before Fred does not exist anymore in this Universe? There is no doubt there is a nice little low level spin there, we can all see it. Maybe it will come all the way over and reach land in a few days or maybe it really will finally open up and die. So far, it has not done that despite almost a week of people saying it would. It is what it is.

#1057 Postby **blazess556** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:25 pm

18z nam has ex-fred as a closed low at 84 hours due east of florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

#1058 Postby **Nederlander** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:37 pm

blazess556 wrote:18z nam has ex-fred as a closed low at 84 hours due east of florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Key Word= NAM

#1059 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:41 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:How many times will it be said "this should open up and die out" before Fred does not exist anymore in this Universe? There is no doubt there is a nice little low level spin there, we can all see it. Maybe it will come all the way over and reach land in a few days or maybe it really will finally open up and die. So far, it has not done that despite almost a week of people saying it would. It is what it is.

There was no rotation yesterday. This is a new rotation that developed overnight.

Aric Dunn · #1060 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 17, 2009 4:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:How many times will it be said "this should open up and die out" before Fred does not exist anymore in this Universe? There is no doubt there is a nice little low level spin there, we can all see it. Maybe it will come all the way over and reach land in a few days or maybe it really will finally open up and die. So far, it has not done that despite almost a week of people saying it would. It is what it is.

There was no rotation yesterday. This is a new rotation that developed overnight.

yes there was...

ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

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