ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[hurricanefloyd5]

Yes, I agree that the circulation center is partially off the coast now. Next 4-8 hours will tell us if this thing can rapidly get her act together or if land has seriously disrupted her central core. My suspicion is that Ida will reintensify to a TS fairly quickly.

it made landfall and now it's making a WATERFALL!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET has track after being in the GOM,turns NE making landfall at Ft Myers and getting out near Vero Beach.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.11.2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 84.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2009 14.8N 84.0W WEAK
00UTC 07.11.2009 16.5N 84.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 17.7N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 18.6N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 19.9N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2009 21.3N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2009 23.9N 88.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2009 26.5N 89.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.11.2009 27.8N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.11.2009 28.3N 86.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2009 27.6N 84.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2009 26.7N 82.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.11.2009 28.7N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Am I close?

well by the size of the circle you drew there will be no trophy for nailing the center..

[Weatherboy1]

More models are now showing an extremely sharp right hook at the end of the period. This includes the HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and now UKMET, some of which are shown at the link below. GFDL and HWRF also peaking Ida out at a much lower intensity (high-TS/Cat 1)

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_11.gif

[gatorcane]

Again, the GFDL and HWRF are showing a loopsided system with most of the winds and storms to the Northwest, a loop will effect more people before weakening

Ivanhater I would be shocked if it comes anywhere close to the Panhandle. In fact, you will likely be on the dry side and see basically no weather from this.

[KWT]

Models really getting a good grip with the higher shear set-up, however I still wouldn't be that surprised if it comes in close to hurricane status, though it'll probably be aided by extra-tropical processes by that pont and may well be turning extra-tropical in the process.

Wonder what would have happened if this formed further west...

[Ivanhater]

UKMET also doing a loop before coming close to the Panhandle as well.

Gator, A lot of the models are showing a large expanding system, with the windfield and rain far away from the center, I wouldnt be shocked if I were you, with nearly all the models approaching the northern gulf coast with a large/windfield before looping. BTW after the loop takes place, it is weakening, so the effects don't seem that bad for the Peninsula according to these models...that would be good news

[Weatherboy1]

cycloneye -- regarding the UKMET intensity forecasts, how do they break down "strong," "moderate," etc.? Does the term "moderate" mean "wind speeds between X and Y?" Or something else? Just wondering how strong the UKMET model is projecting Ida to be when she makes landfall (if she makes landfall in central/south FL).

[HURAKAN]

Wonder what would have happened if this formed further west...

It could have reached cat. 5 in my opinion

[cycloneye]

cycloneye -- regarding the UKMET intensity forecasts, how do they break down "strong," "moderate," etc.? Does the term "moderate" mean "wind speeds between X and Y?" Or something else? Just wondering how strong the UKMET model is projecting Ida to be when she makes landfall (if she makes landfall in central/south FL).

I will let you know as soon the graphic comes out as they release the text first.I honestly dont know how they put the winds in x category as they have in the text.

[N2Storms]

[quote="gatorcane"][quote="Ivanhater"]Again, the GFDL and HWRF are showing a loopsided system with most of the winds and storms to the Northwest, a loop will effect more people before weakening

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2009110612-ida11l/slp19.png[/img]

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2009110612-ida11l/slp17.png[/img][/quote]

Ivanhater I would be shocked if it comes anywhere close to the Panhandle. In fact, you will likely be on the dry side and see basically no weather from this.[/quote]



You're probably right and when it's all said and done, anyone north of Ft. Myers is probably not going to be affected by Ida...IMO, Ida is going to be south of Wilma and may just skirt across the Southern part of FL...the Keys will likely bear the brunt of what Ida has to offer

[brunota2003]

Wonder what would have happened if this formed further west...

It could have reached cat. 5 in my opinion

Further west? It would of gone deeper inland, quicker.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps showing a lopsided system to the NW as well. Nearly all the models are showing this. I wonder if it has something to do with the interaction with the BOC low?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye -- regarding the UKMET intensity forecasts, how do they break down "strong," "moderate," etc.? Does the term "moderate" mean "wind speeds between X and Y?" Or something else? Just wondering how strong the UKMET model is projecting Ida to be when she makes landfall (if she makes landfall in central/south FL).

I will let you know as soon the graphic comes out as they release the text first.I honestly dont know how they put the winds in x category as they have in the text.

Ok,here is the animation and it has a strong Ida making the transition to hybrid or extratropical entering near FT Myers.It has the system as a strong tropical storm in the NW Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Wonder what would have happened if this formed further west...

It could have reached cat. 5 in my opinion

Further west? It would of gone deeper inland, quicker.

Sorry, further east. I'm crazy, but not that crazy!!

[Ivanhater]

Strongest winds also to the NW as it approaches the northern gulf before looping. Has to be some interaction going on

[srainhoutx]

Nogaps showing a lopsided system to the NW as well. Nearly all the models are showing this. I wonder if it has something to do with the interaction with the BOC low?

Bingo!

[cycloneye]

Still a TD at next advisory.

AL, 11, 2009110618, , BEST, 0, 154N, 839W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[ozonepete]

UKMET also doing a loop before coming close to the Panhandle as well.

Gator, A lot of the models are showing a large expanding system, with the windfield and rain far away from the center, I wouldnt be shocked if I were you, with nearly all the models approaching the northern gulf coast with a large/windfield before looping. BTW after the loop takes place, it is weakening, so the effects don't seem that bad for the Peninsula according to these models...that would be good news

Yes, They are now indicating it could be a large expanding system with the highest wind away from the center and on the northwestern side. That's classic hybrid or extratropical. You can see it nicely on the HWRF Ivanhater posted. The models expect interaction with the trough/front digging into the GOM.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC FRI NOV 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AL112009) 20091106 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091106 1800 091107 0600 091107 1800 091108 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 83.9W 16.5N 84.8W 17.6N 85.9W 18.6N 87.0W
BAMD 15.4N 83.9W 17.3N 83.9W 19.1N 83.8W 20.7N 83.9W
BAMM 15.4N 83.9W 16.8N 84.4W 18.1N 85.0W 19.4N 85.8W
LBAR 15.4N 83.9W 16.7N 83.9W 18.1N 84.1W 19.2N 84.6W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091108 1800 091109 1800 091110 1800 091111 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 88.2W 21.9N 89.1W 24.4N 87.0W 25.8N 84.5W
BAMD 22.5N 84.3W 27.4N 85.2W 33.6N 80.9W 35.4N 67.9W
BAMM 20.7N 86.8W 24.2N 88.4W 28.0N 87.0W 29.3N 83.3W
LBAR 20.5N 85.0W 22.6N 85.5W 22.8N 84.1W 20.7N 81.8W
SHIP 45KTS 47KTS 47KTS 29KTS
DSHP 45KTS 47KTS 47KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 83.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM