ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Evil Jeremy]

Its Friday evening, and I should be relaxing, but I can't get the potential 1-2 punch TD2 and 90L could present to the Caribbean, and maybe Florida (unlikely that both would effect us though, right?) off my mind. I think both these systems will be upgraded tonight.

I wouldn't be able to relax much if I lived in Plantation, FL. The City of Plantation, FL is one of our clients, by the way. After last year (Ike hit and no power for 2 weeks) I've seen enough hurricanes.

Wxman, do you think both these systems might impact SFL? Judging by the models, its a possibility. What are you advising to the City of Plantation about these threats?

[jinftl]

don't see that clear-cut of an outcome....there is alot of variables that could be unveiled if we do indeed have 2 systems developing before our eyes....if 20kts of shear killed td-2 off yesterday, what in turn could a re-emerging td-2 due to shear off 90L?

[sevenleft]

TD2 is directly over this buoy right now:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

[RL3AO]

TD2 is directly over this buoy right now:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

Not over it yet, but its close.

[Nimbus]

The mid level moisture and SST's increase as you get near the islands. with TD2 holding on as well as it has I'm starting to get worried. The models are showing a high pressure block that would keep the system from recurving.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvmid.jpg

[wxman57]

Wxman, do you think both these systems might impact SFL? Judging by the models, its a possibility. What are you advising to the City of Plantation about these threats?

Oh, it's POSSIBLE, but not likely. TD 2 will probably remain a small system, so it'll be hard to receive a direct hit. And the odds of being hit by two in a row like this are low. Just the same, I'd be at the store tomorrow topping off my hurricane kit supplies. We're not alarming any of our clients yet. Just sending out the discussions and mentioning the possibility of a south Florida impact.

[sevenleft]

TD2 is directly over this buoy right now:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

Not over it yet, but its close.

It's been almost an hour since that last satellite image...so in real time it's just about overhead. The deepest convection is, anyway.

[brunota2003]

TD2 is directly over this buoy right now:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

then pressure appears to be 1010 (29.85 is 1011)

[RL3AO]

It's been almost an hour since that last satellite image

Its been over an hour since the last buoy observation.

[jinftl]

I live in south florida so logic would suggest i would not be saying this....but it is way to early to label this/these any more south florida threats than carolina, new england, new orleans, texas threats......it's all about the islands now...they are up first for whatever happens

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

Wxman, do you think both these systems might impact SFL? Judging by the models, its a possibility. What are you advising to the City of Plantation about these threats?

Oh, it's POSSIBLE, but not likely. TD 2 will probably remain a small system, so it'll be hard to receive a direct hit. And the odds of being hit by two in a row like this are low. Just the same, I'd be at the store tomorrow topping off my hurricane kit supplies. We're not alarming any of our clients yet. Just sending out the discussions and mentioning the possibility of a south Florida impact.

[sevenleft]

It's been almost an hour since that last satellite image

Its been over an hour since the last buoy observation.

The 0150 GMT observation should contain obs from the deep convection. I assume it will update shortly.

[wxman57]

I live in south florida so logic would suggest i would not be saying this....but it is way to early to label this/these any more south florida threats than carolina, new england, new orleans, texas threats......it's all about the islands now...they are up first for whatever happens

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

But when the next track on TD 2 is issued, it'll be pointing right at you and not far offshore at day 5. So I'd say the threat to south Florida would be greater than to New England. But it is true that we all (near the coast) should have a complete hurricane kit on June1. I have 3 of them. I'm not buying gas until I'm threatened, though.

[jinftl]

It is a burden south floridians have to bear....due to location we are often the first u.s. mainland target in the 'cone'....almost every atlantic system is pointing at us at some point!

I live in south florida so logic would suggest i would not be saying this....but it is way to early to label this/these any more south florida threats than carolina, new england, new orleans, texas threats......it's all about the islands now...they are up first for whatever happens

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

But when the next track on TD 2 is issued, it'll be pointing right at you and not far offshore at day 5. So I'd say the threat to south Florida would be greater than to New England. But it is true that we all (near the coast) should have a complete hurricane kit on June1. I have 3 of them. I'm not buying gas until I'm threatened, though.

[sevenleft]

It's been almost an hour since that last satellite image

Its been over an hour since the last buoy observation.

The 0150 GMT observation should contain obs from the deep convection. I assume it will update shortly.

Okay, maybe it isn't quite there yet. Maybe next hour will have more impressive obs.

[HouTXmetro]

Illusion or is TD2 moving SW?

[tolakram]

Illusion or is TD2 moving SW?

The convection blob drifted SW, the center appears to be tracking due west.

[Aric Dunn]

Illusion or is TD2 moving SW?

just the convection wrapping around.. but a slight wsw motion is possible.. as the ridge is still holding strong..

[tolakram]

Well.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

hard to tell on the IR but I think I can see another mass of outflow boundaries. Is it getting hit with shear again, blowing the convection off to the sw?

Little easier to see in the nighttime visible:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[jlauderdal]

It is a burden south floridians have to bear....due to location we are often the first u.s. mainland target in the 'cone'....almost every atlantic system is pointing at us at some point!

I live in south florida so logic would suggest i would not be saying this....but it is way to early to label this/these any more south florida threats than carolina, new england, new orleans, texas threats......it's all about the islands now...they are up first for whatever happens

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

But when the next track on TD 2 is issued, it'll be pointing right at you and not far offshore at day 5. So I'd say the threat to south Florida would be greater than to New England. But it is true that we all (near the coast) should have a complete hurricane kit on June1. I have 3 of them. I'm not buying gas until I'm threatened, though.

its a burden we bear the brunt of as true Americans taking it for the team, i hope luis has is locked and loaded ready to change the topic title back to TD2 because i expect an upgrade real soon like within the next 30 mins or less.

[Air Force Met]

Well.

hard to tell on the IR but I think I can see another mass of outflow boundaries. Is it getting hit with shear again, blowing the convection off to the sw?

Don't see any outflow boundaries. LLC is sufficiently wound up...so that shouldn't be a factor. There is maybe 5-10 knots of easterly shear...which isn't all that much.