ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[tpr1967]

I mean thats where it may come together sorry. I think its presently at near 12.5 and 48.5.

[jinftl]

I think it just seems slow...in reality, it has been 'code red' for less than a day.

What would folks have said about the system that would become Katrina...took her 11 days from departing the coast of africa before she became a tropical depression!!! She would have been written off, ridiculed, and dismissed!!!

Excerpt from NHC report on Katrina:

A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.

(interesting that even katrina had to fight shear in her early days.....easy to forget that shear is always present in some degree no matter the season)

Convection continues to diminish this afternoon. This is one of the slowest developming systems I believe I've ever watched, or maybe it just seems that way because I'm bored. It has a slightly better structure than yesterday, but the convection continues to be pitiful. I'm still not sure this one will develop. My guess is Ortt won't need to worry about wearing a dunce cap.

Once again, all the talk and fretting about where it will go won't matter much if it's nothing by the time it gets there.

[MGC]

94L looks to be slowly developing into a TD this afternoon. All that is needed is better concentration of convection near the center of circulation which appears to be forming near 13-14 degrees N. 94L has a large area of cyclonic turning so this might be a sizeable system.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Yes,is the NAM,but here is its 18z run.More closer to northern Leewards than past runs of this model.

[Aric Dunn]

14 N is the middle of curved banding and there nothing there in terms of a center..

[StormTracker]

I got it @ 12 & 48 give or take a . here or a . there!!! What time should we expect some recon CE???

[OURAGAN]

i agree, the center is at 12,2N/48 W, non upstair

[otowntiger]

I think it just seems slow...in reality, it has been 'code red' for less than a day.

What would folks have said about the system that would become Katrina...took her 11 days from departing the coast of africa before she became a tropical depression!!! She would have been written off, ridiculed, and dismissed!!!

Excerpt from NHC report on Katrina:

A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.

(interesting that even katrina had to fight shear in her early days.....easy to forget that shear is always present in some degree no matter the season)

Convection continues to diminish this afternoon. This is one of the slowest developming systems I believe I've ever watched, or maybe it just seems that way because I'm bored. It has a slightly better structure than yesterday, but the convection continues to be pitiful. I'm still not sure this one will develop. My guess is Ortt won't need to worry about wearing a dunce cap.

Once again, all the talk and fretting about where it will go won't matter much if it's nothing by the time it gets there.

Well it became an invest back on Monday, if I'm not mistaken. It became code orange shortly thereafter. Then it went back to code yellow, then jumped to code red. I realize that this isn't really unusual, it just seems that we've been expecting this thing to jump for almost a week and it has continued to be very weak, disorganized and mostly at no time has it had much in the way of convection. I do realize that in the long and interesting history of the tropics this is not really unusual. I'm just babbling. Ignore me!

[Evil Jeremy]

I think it just seems slow...in reality, it has been 'code red' for less than a day.

What would folks have said about the system that would become Katrina...took her 11 days from departing the coast of africa before she became a tropical depression!!! She would have been written off, ridiculed, and dismissed!!!

Excerpt from NHC report on Katrina:

A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.

(interesting that even katrina had to fight shear in her early days.....easy to forget that shear is always present in some degree no matter the season)

Convection continues to diminish this afternoon. This is one of the slowest developming systems I believe I've ever watched, or maybe it just seems that way because I'm bored. It has a slightly better structure than yesterday, but the convection continues to be pitiful. I'm still not sure this one will develop. My guess is Ortt won't need to worry about wearing a dunce cap.

Once again, all the talk and fretting about where it will go won't matter much if it's nothing by the time it gets there.

Well it became an invest back on Monday, if I'm not mistaken. It became code orange shortly thereafter. Then it went back to code yellow, then jumped to code red. I realize that this isn't really unusual, it just seems that we've been expecting this thing to jump for almost a week and it has continued to be very weak, disorganized and mostly at no time has it had much in the way of convection. I do realize that in the long and interesting history of the tropics this is not really unusual. I'm just babbling. Ignore me!

This became an invest on Thursday, just 4 days ago, not Monday.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty evident with this 1km loop that .. there are banding features through 14N .. SSD estimates are good and corellate well with visible and microwave images. center probably still a little broad. but from 12N to 13N is likely where center is taking shape with a 280 motion or so..

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6469/moviek.gif

[StormTracker]

pretty evident with this 1km loop that .. there are banding features through 14N .. SSD estimates are good and corellate well with visible and microwave images. center probably still a little broad. but from 12N to 13N is likely where center is taking shape with a 280 motion or so..

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6469/moviek.gif

Thanks Aric, you kinda help make me feel like I know a little bit about what I'm looking at!!!

[terrapintransit]

pretty evident with this 1km loop that .. there are banding features through 14N .. SSD estimates are good and corellate well with visible and microwave images. center probably still a little broad. but from 12N to 13N is likely where center is taking shape with a 280 motion or so..

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6469/moviek.gif

WOW. That looks pretty impressive on that shot!

[Chigger_Lopez]

Regardless of where you think the actual center may be, I think one thing is certain. It appears to be moving more WNW or even NW than plain W. Maybe my eyes are fooling me though.

[StormTracker]

Regardless of where you think the actual center may be, I think one thing is certain. It appears to be moving more WNW or even NW than plain W. Maybe my eyes are fooling me though.

I don't think anyone is doubting that! Valid point made!!!

[jinftl]

Current estimated center at 12.1N and 47.5 W (motion is wnw at about 285 deg).

Compared to where Bill was at this longitude, still talking about 94L being 150-175 miles to Bill's south (when Bill was moving wnw at 285 deg for both advisories below).

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...
1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


Looking at satellite, i can almost see how 12.1N 47.5W could be the center....if so, this is close to being a td.

[Tropicswatcher]

Here is a windrose, a very helpful tool to estimate the direction of movement:

http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/7843/w ... te20ai.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

lets put the south center idea to the glue factory

all of the new convection is firing along the northern curved band. This should form near 14N. Threat to Lesser Antilles small. Threat of a hurricane, fairly high

[ToxicTiger]

94L shows an impressive structure on the visible shots, but IR images reveal a disorganized mess with little convection near the center. Isn't it usually the other way around?

[blp]

Could someone tell me what is correct time on the below quickscat because I don't remember if it is the bottam or the top time. The image below does not appear to have anything above 12N.

[StormTracker]

Good breakdown J! Hey I have an idea! Why don't we put our own model together here at S2K! With all the pro-mets & misc. talent we have here, I don't see why it can't be done,(yes it will take some time)but it can be done!!! Maybe we can have it ready for 2011??? C'mon let's do it!!!