ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

How many times will it be said "this should open up and die out" before Fred does not exist anymore in this Universe? There is no doubt there is a nice little low level spin there, we can all see it. Maybe it will come all the way over and reach land in a few days or maybe it really will finally open up and die. So far, it has not done that despite almost a week of people saying it would. It is what it is.

There was no rotation yesterday. This is a new rotation that developed overnight.

yes there was...

yeah, there was. This is definitely still Fred, as weird as it seems.

[ozonepete]

BTW, Aric, I agree with your visual analysis of what happens with these swirls just before convection blows up. I've seen it at least twice before with this system that I can recall. And it sure looks like it's starting to do it again in the last visual images.

[Nederlander]

yeah, there was. This is definitely still Fred, as weird as it seems.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's a pretty clear statement to me by the NHC

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, there was. This is definitely still Fred, as weird as it seems.

That's a pretty clear statement to me by the NHC

thats just saying for the next 48 hours..

[Nederlander]

yeah, there was. This is definitely still Fred, as weird as it seems.

That's a pretty clear statement to me by the NHC

thats just saying for the next 48 hours..

ozonepete said that "This is still Fred"... Thats a pretty misleading and erroneous statement... This is nowhere near being a named system at the moment...

[ozonepete]

yeah, there was. This is definitely still Fred, as weird as it seems.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's a pretty clear statement to me by the NHC

I never said I was expecting anything to develop. As a matter of fact, I don't, at all. I just see the LLC out there, and it is obviously generated by Fred's remnant circulation. I would think if by some miracle it regenerated that the NHC would call it Fred, but I DON"T THINK IT WILL. I just wanted to be clear that there's a little LLC out there, a closed mesoscale low, that's clearly visible and was produced by Fred's circulation. That's all.

[djones65]

I think it is extremely obvious that ozonepete was not saying this was a "tropical storm," rather he was indicating that this well defined low level circulation is still the remnant vorticity of "Fred."

[ozonepete]

ozonepete said that "This is still Fred"... Thats a pretty misleading and erroneous statement... This is nowhere near being a named system at the moment...

LOL! Sorry if I misled you, that wasn't my intention at all. I didn't think anyne woud read that into what I wrote. But as you can see now, I think I cleared it up.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I guess it's plausable. Considering it still has a broad circulation. At least it is mentioned in the local forecast.

Sunday through the rest of the period, a ridge is expected to
build across the Atlantic and into the southeast states deepening the
east flow across S Florida. A more typical Summer time pattern may ensue
with nocturnal and morning convection along the East Coast and
afternoon and evening storms across the interior and West Coast.
The only caveat to this is that with the east flow the remnants of
Fred (what little there is) may add a slight bit of extra moisture
to the area Monday night and Tuesday ~ precipitable waters may increase from
around 1.9 to around 2.1, but as always the case with tropical
waves convection can be sporadic. At this time kept chance of probability of precipitation for these
days.

[ozonepete]

I think it is extremely obvious that ozonepete was not saying this was a "tropical storm," rather he was indicating that this well defined low level circulation is still the remnant vorticity of "Fred."

Thank you. That's all I was saying.

[perk]

Aric you clearly pointed out that circulation yesterday, so saying it was'nt there is absolutely not true.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note .. convection starting firing over the center..

[Gustywind]

Last Updated: 19:55 GMT le 17 septembre 2009 —
Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:04 GMT le 17 septembre 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1322

Quiet in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Fred are generating a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near 23N, 61W. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains do not have a surface circulation, and the organization of ex-Fred has degraded to point where NHC is no longer mentioning the system on their Tropical Weather Outlook. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred continues to suffer from dry air thanks to an upper-level low pressure system, and it is unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. None of the computer models call for any tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

[ozonepete]

Last Updated: 19:55 GMT le 17 septembre 2009 —
Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:04 GMT le 17 septembre 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1322

Quiet in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Fred are generating a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near 23N, 61W. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains do not have a surface circulation, and the organization of ex-Fred has degraded to point where NHC is no longer mentioning the system on their Tropical Weather Outlook. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred continues to suffer from dry air thanks to an upper-level low pressure system, and it is unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. None of the computer models call for any tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

I totally agree with his statement that it's unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. Totally agree. But I have to admit, I'm totally interested in where and when that little swirl will finally give up the ghost. It just keeps going and going and...

[ozonepete]

I tracked that little eddy back to beneath a small burst of convection near 24N/59W last night. The convection died, and the eddy is zipping rapidly westward now. I'm measuring 170nm in 9 hours, or about 19 kts. Pressures just north of it are in the 1017-1018mb range. To the south, I see a few 1014-1015mb readings. Could be a pressure of 1012mb or so in the center of the eddy.

Without deep convection and significant convergence to generate convection and with lots of dry air in its path, it should gradually open up and die out over the next day or two. Development chances slim.

BTW, thanks for that analysis, wxman57. You have some really good software.

[Aric Dunn]

Last Updated: 19:55 GMT le 17 septembre 2009 —
Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:04 GMT le 17 septembre 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1322

Quiet in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Fred are generating a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near 23N, 61W. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains do not have a surface circulation, and the organization of ex-Fred has degraded to point where NHC is no longer mentioning the system on their Tropical Weather Outlook. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred continues to suffer from dry air thanks to an upper-level low pressure system, and it is unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. None of the computer models call for any tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

I totally agree with his statement that it's unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. Totally agree. But I have to admit, I'm totally interested in where and when that little swirl will finally give up the ghost. It just keeps going and going and...

actually one issue with quikscat not seeing a closed surface low is likely do too size. The wind field is small and in the past with small systems such things have happened. I have a very hard time believing that such a well defined circ is not at the surface. with that said regeneration is still low, but is also at the same time possible.

Also not sure if he was referring to tropical models only .. but the Nam sort of does.. and yes its the nam .. lol

[Emmett_Brown]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that QuikScat uses the motion of ocean water to indicate wind. SInce this is not just a small system, but a weak and more recently, a rapidly moving system, I can see how this swirl may have gone under the radar so to speak.

All of this, of course, just illustrates how weak this vortex actually is... which means it has a long way to go, but stranger things have happened.

[artist]

why can't everyone agree to disagree rather than getting hot and bothered? At this point the mets seem to think nothing will happen at this point.
Let that be. And if you enjoy following it and think there is still something there, fine! Just don't jump on them when they give their opinions. Ignore it, if you don't agree. And just stae what you reasoning is without calling others out. I know there are those here hoping this will get going as it is the last hope at the moment, but please, let's be kind to one another. And I do understand the thrill of following these swirls, wondering if or when they might decide to generate or regenerate, particularly when there is nothing else really out there. And those of you studying to be a pro, it must be so frustrating when there is nothing much to study currently! And I do think you do bring much to the table here.
And I think if something does happen or not, everyone should be able to change their minds without getting called out. I think when it is stated there is nothing, they don't always mean that somewhere down the road, who knows? And I actually think that has even been said before.
Now, let's play nice!
Ok, I'm done being Mom now!

[OuterBanker]

This am when the ull that was providing a little convec left Fred for good I was ready to play taps. But he just doesn't want to give up. Darn if he doesn't seem to be trying to get some convection over the center against all the odds.

He's saying "I'm not dead yet" while on life support.

Will we be playing taps tommorow,or the theme to Rocky?

[Emmett_Brown]

What interests me about this latest burst of convection is that it is not just over the center, but also over the outer band to the west.