ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Gustywind]

14/2345 UTC 15.2N 44.9W T1.5/1.5 02L

[Evil Jeremy]

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

"i expect an upgrade real soon like within the next 30 mins or less" reminded me of Domino's pizza lol. Man I am hungry. Anyways, it seems likely that we will indeed get our upgrade by the end of the hour.

[MusicCityMan]

T # supports what kinda system?

[Blown Away]

I live in south florida so logic would suggest i would not be saying this....but it is way to early to label this/these any more south florida threats than carolina, new england, new orleans, texas threats......it's all about the islands now...they are up first for whatever happens

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

But when the next track on TD 2 is issued, it'll be pointing right at you and not far offshore at day 5. So I'd say the threat to south Florida would be greater than to New England. But it is true that we all (near the coast) should have a complete hurricane kit on June1. I have 3 of them. I'm not buying gas until I'm threatened, though.

Wxman, are you saying there is a greater threat to SFL w/ exTD2 then there was when advisories were being issued? What changed, the weakness the models were showing is still ther regardless if it is a TD or a low?

[JonathanBelles]

T # supports what kinda system?

30mph system.

[brunota2003]

Re-up, you're crazy! Re-up, you're outta your mind!

[tolakram]

Did someone respond to a troll?

As far as those outflow boundaries ... I really am not qualified to tell, but what is racing away from the convection to the west and south near the end of this loop? Just normal pulsing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[wxman57]

Wxman, are you saying there is a greater threat to SFL w/ exTD2 then there was when advisories were being issued? What changed, the weakness the models were showing is still there regardless if it is a TD or a low?

Sure, the threat is significantly greater to south Florida now. For one, just about every model is forecasting a track toward the southern to central FL peninsula with an ETA next Thursday. I don't see any weakness in the ridge to allow for recurvature now. Clearly, the models were wrong. Take a look below.

Second, it's a lot closer now, so the probability that its wind field will impact Florida is significantly greater.

[MWatkins]

Couple of things to remember...

For a significant hurricane to impact South Florida from the east a bunch of things have to happen in sequence.

First, whatever comes up out of the Caribbean will need to contend with the Greater Antilles...and eastern Cuba, Haiti and even Puerto Rico have lots of tall mountains. These tend to be very distuptive even if a storm doesn't pass directly over them.

Second, the guidance envelope has been shifting southward run after run. Although it is totally possible that TD2 will track along the guidance, it's more important to watch the trends. If the continue to show this track, that's a concern. However, if the ridge builds in as strongly as forecast there's a chance whatever develops (and there is not much model support for a strong system right now outside of SHIPS) could miss to the south.

At this time, I think it's important to do everything you should have done on June 1st no matter where you live (Luis should watch a little more closely). Get the supplies, window protection etc and just have it ready, and watch and wait over the weekend.

One thing you can do to make yourself feel like you are preparing is make a lot of ice. You can never have too much ice on hand if the power goes out! It's invaluable!

MW

[Evil Jeremy]

Wxman, are you saying there is a greater threat to SFL w/ exTD2 then there was when advisories were being issued? What changed, the weakness the models were showing is still there regardless if it is a TD or a low?

Sure, the threat is significantly greater to south Florida now. For one, just about every model is forecasting a track toward the southern to central FL peninsula with an ETA next Thursday. I don't see any weakness in the ridge to allow for recurvature now. Clearly, the models were wrong. Take a look below.

Second, it's a lot closer now, so the probability that its wind field will impact Florida is significantly greater.

What kind of threat do you think we could be getting? TS, Cane?

[wxman57]

What kind of threat do you think we could be getting? TS, Cane?

Currently, all guidance suggests TS with a possibility of a hurricane. Our ability to forecast intensity isn't so good, though. And another factor is its size. The intensity guidance used to estimate shear looks at a VERY large area around the storm. This may not be valid for such a small storm. That is, the shear could be less than the models are thinking.

[Gustywind]

Fighting with brio and still hanging on...

[jlauderdal]

If south floridians should top off their supplies, the rest of the east coast and gulf region should do the same.....as we all should have done on june 1.

"i expect an upgrade real soon like within the next 30 mins or less" reminded me of Domino's pizza lol. Man I am hungry. Anyways, it seems likely that we will indeed get our upgrade by the end of the hour.

i was going to say 15 mins but figured i should cover myself with my prediction kinda of like accuweather with their infamous the whole east coast is a threat, oh well bottom line is we have td2 back, happy wobble watching folks, long 2 weeks setting up for everyone

[Derek Ortt]

we dont have TD 2 back until NHC issues the advisory

[wxman57]

we dont have TD 2 back until NHC issues the advisory

They like to make us sweat. Probably don't like putting out a track that's pointing right at their office at day 5.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmm, the full advisory package for the Epac hurricane is out, but nothing yet for TD2. Perhaps the NHC are holding out for now? Well see...

[brunota2003]

Did someone respond to a troll?

As far as those outflow boundaries ... I really am not qualified to tell, but what is racing away from the convection to the west and south near the end of this loop? Just normal pulsing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

What troll?

Anyways...I dont think it is an outflow boundary...just looks like some of the storms collapsed, leaving the storms on the edge with the appearance of them "racing away"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Hmm, the full advisory package for the Epac hurricane is out, but nothing yet for TD2. Perhaps the NHC are holding out for now? Well see...

When the tropical outlooks were issued by 10pm CDT we would get the word that they didn't upgrade in that message about now. Now we have to wait another 3 hours.

[attallaman]

Is TD2 gone?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is TD2 gone?

On the contrary, its about to be reclassified as a TD.