ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[jinftl]

One thing that doesn't appear too evident is the presence of strong shear in any quadrant of the system.

[Tropicswatcher]

Could someone tell me what is correct time on the below quickscat because I don't remember if it is the bottam or the top time. The image below does not appear to have anything above 12N.

Purple numbers on the bottom part of the image

[blp]

Could someone tell me what is correct time on the below quickscat because I don't remember if it is the bottam or the top time. The image below does not appear to have anything above 12N.

Purple numbers on the bottom part of the image

Thanks, so it is old.

[StormTracker]

One thing that doesn't appear too evident is the presence of strong shear in any quadrant of the system.

Yeah, I've been thinking about that since around 1:00 today!

[jinftl]

21:00 UTC was 5pm edt.....so the image is about 3 hours old

Could someone tell me what is correct time on the below quickscat because I don't remember if it is the bottam or the top time. The image below does not appear to have anything above 12N.

Thanks, so it is old.

[gatorcane]

well looks like it continues to head WNW to maybe W. The convection is sprawling out in a SE to NE fashion but I don't see it lifting out that much. Convection continues to diminish, and a center (has not formed and) has not deepened into the H5 layer of the atmosphere, so should just keep heading WNW. As long it doesn't get its act together the closer it can get to the Leewards.

I'm still looking downstream at the H5 flow expected over the Western Atlantic. There seems to be a possibility it could get trapped under some increased heights across that area should this thing not recurve to the right of the leewards. Will have to wait and see what we have about 4-5 days from now and go from there.

[wxman57]

21:00 UTC was 5pm edt.....so the image is about 3 hours old

Could someone tell me what is correct time on the below quickscat because I don't remember if it is the bottam or the top time. The image below does not appear to have anything above 12N.

Thanks, so it is old.

The image time is the purple number on the bottom - 5:42 UTC - last night. The time at the top of the page is when the new HTML was generated.

[StormTracker]

Not quite there yet

[jinftl]

oops! Good catch

21:00 UTC was 5pm edt.....so the image is about 3 hours old

The image time is the purple number on the bottom - 5:42 UTC - last night. The time at the top of the page is when the new HTML was generated.

[Recurve]

NB6 weatherman in Miami, Girardi, just showed an animation of their "in house" hurricane computer model. Showed a gradually strengthening system skirting the islands remaining low, just north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Couldn't tell from the animation and he didn't say what strength was projected at. B next Friday, he said, if it's in this position you can see how close it's getting, we'd really have to start watching it.

FWIW, looks like their track is closer to LBAR posted at the models thread.

[edited]

[Aric Dunn]

ok well here is yet another loop showing Banding trough 14N which means there cant be a center there... lol

12 to 13N .. at some point it will move up to 14 N but it is south of 14 N as of right and is moving 280 or so ..
rough estimate is
12.3N 48.1 W

also buoy 4104 has a ene wind and if the center at 14N a west of 46 ene winds would not make sense

[blp]

18Z GFS has the low much further west in 36hrs closer to the LA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Then here goes the split personality after that and in 72 hrs it has the northern end taking control.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

If the GFS verifies then I will forgive it for its misstep on Bill. Although I don't believe it will happen.

[jinftl]

Other than the old GFDL run....which shows a motion more like nnw.....the bulk of the models do show a potential threat to the northern islands and do not show a sharp recurve in the next 5 days

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS has an open wave

[blp]

Other than the old GFDL run....which shows a motion more like nnw.....the bulk of the models do show a potential threat to the northern islands and do not show a sharp recurve in the next 5 days

GFS ensembles have shifted a good deal west.

[lonelymike]

From that shear map posted you gotta wonder if it's going to survive. Maybe that's why the Euro and the GFS don't really develop this wave.

[blp]

the GFS has an open wave

Well that makes sense, I wish it would do a better job on intensity.

[lonelymike]

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

Very premature statement. Its unlikely that it will effect us right now, but things always change in the tropics.

I also don't see anything in the linked discussion which makes that assertion:

In the extended period...Wednesday through Sat...a short wave over the north
Great Plains dives southeast into the East Coast trough...deepening the trough
again. This shoves the upper ridge southeast re-establishing the SW flow
over S fla Thursday and into the weekend. At the low levels...an inverted
trough in the SW North Atlantic will move toward S fla...merging this trough
with a with a broad surface trough off the east U.S. Coast that extends
SW across the central fla peninsula. Being on the S side of this
trough means a slight increase in the chances of precipitation over
S fla...favoring the interior and east.

Not one word about 94L.

I believe HurricaneFelony was talking about the troughs mentioned here. I can see where he is coming from. A stretch but a valid point.

[Ivanhater]

Strong banding becoming more evident on the SE side of the 12 degree low

[jlauderdal]

NB6 weatherman in Miami, Girardi, just showed an animation of their "in house" hurricane computer model. Showed a gradually strengthening system skirting the islands remaining low, just north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Couldn't tell from the animation and he didn't say what strength was projected at. B next Friday, he said, if it's in this position you can see how close it's getting, we'd really have to start watching it.

FWIW, looks like their track is closer to LBAR posted at the models thread.

[edited]

giraridi is good, been around a long time, when they roll old max out on channel 10 then its code double red alert in south florida