Moderator: S2k Moderators
tolakram wrote:Did someone respond to a troll?
As far as those outflow boundaries ... I really am not qualified to tell, but what is racing away from the convection to the west and south near the end of this loop? Just normal pulsing?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
MWatkins wrote:Couple of things to remember...
For a significant hurricane to impact South Florida from the east a bunch of things have to happen in sequence.
First, whatever comes up out of the Caribbean will need to contend with the Greater Antilles...and eastern Cuba, Haiti and even Puerto Rico have lots of tall mountains. These tend to be very distuptive even if a storm doesn't pass directly over them.
Second, the guidance envelope has been shifting southward run after run. Although it is totally possible that TD2 will track along the guidance, it's more important to watch the trends. If the continue to show this track, that's a concern. However, if the ridge builds in as strongly as forecast there's a chance whatever develops (and there is not much model support for a strong system right now outside of SHIPS) could miss to the south.
At this time, I think it's important to do everything you should have done on June 1st no matter where you live (Luis should watch a little more closely). Get the supplies, window protection etc and just have it ready, and watch and wait over the weekend.
One thing you can do to make yourself feel like you are preparing is make a lot of ice. You can never have too much ice on hand if the power goes out! It's invaluable!
MW
Air Force Met wrote:tolakram wrote:
As far as those outflow boundaries ... I really am not qualified to tell, but what is racing away from the convection to the west and south near the end of this loop? Just normal pulsing?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
Looks like a feeder band firing under neath some cirrus. Compare to the ch.4 IR and you'll see the cirrus moving out and dissipating.
MusicCityMan wrote:Maybe they'll wait till morning for un upgrade?
wxman57 wrote:MusicCityMan wrote:Maybe they'll wait till morning for un upgrade?
I don't see any reason why they'd wait now. Closed low with significant convection developing over the center. It's a TD.
Derek Ortt wrote:maybe because the global models dissipate this system shortly they are not restarting advisories. I am not entirely sure.
It still has some inflow issues
wxman57 wrote:MusicCityMan wrote:Maybe they'll wait till morning for un upgrade?
I don't see any reason why they'd wait now. Closed low with significant convection developing over the center. It's a TD.
wxman57 wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:maybe because the global models dissipate this system shortly they are not restarting advisories. I am not entirely sure.
It still has some inflow issues
Call over there and ask Lix what's going on.
MusicCityMan wrote:We got 2 pick on Avila don't we lol
Thunder44 wrote:I figure they start writing these advisories well ahead of time. So maybe a last minute change to upgrade to a TS.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests
