ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261547
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 04 20090826
153800 1843N 06550W 3923 07761 0437 -170 -339 184006 006 999 999 03
153830 1845N 06552W 3925 07755 0437 -168 -338 187005 006 999 999 03
153900 1847N 06554W 3926 07751 0437 -170 -333 177006 006 999 999 03
153930 1849N 06556W 3925 07759 0437 -170 -338 190005 006 999 999 03
154000 1851N 06558W 3925 07755 0438 -169 -341 201005 005 999 999 03
154030 1852N 06600W 3926 07754 0439 -165 -358 195005 005 999 999 03
154100 1854N 06602W 3925 07755 0438 -165 -375 205005 005 999 999 03
154130 1856N 06604W 3926 07755 0439 -167 -366 205005 005 999 999 03
154200 1858N 06606W 3926 07756 0439 -170 -365 207006 006 999 999 03
154230 1900N 06608W 3925 07757 0439 -170 -363 206006 007 999 999 03
154300 1902N 06610W 3926 07757 0439 -171 -337 210006 007 999 999 03
154330 1904N 06612W 3927 07752 0440 -173 -343 213006 006 999 999 03
154400 1906N 06614W 3926 07755 0440 -175 -344 205007 007 999 999 03
154430 1908N 06616W 3925 07761 0440 -175 -329 213006 007 999 999 03
154500 1909N 06618W 3926 07754 0441 -170 -330 202007 007 999 999 03
154530 1911N 06620W 3926 07757 0440 -170 -337 198007 008 999 999 03
154600 1913N 06622W 3926 07751 0439 -170 -337 194008 009 999 999 03
154630 1915N 06624W 3925 07763 0441 -170 -338 201008 009 999 999 03
154700 1917N 06627W 3919 07758 0436 -173 -334 205008 009 999 999 03
154730 1919N 06629W 3919 07758 0431 -175 -330 220008 008 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC mention that this system does have some subtropical features but the system has features slightly closer to a tropical storm rather then subtropical, hence why this is TS Danny rather then STS Danny.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile states the ULL and the front do not pass our area till Monday! This has to slow the turn to the north and IMO would give a longer favorable environment for strengthening. Beginning to think the CMC has the best handle on this!


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WITH A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND AS A
RESULT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. POP FORECAST WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED CHANCES ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS THE FRONT FINALLY GETS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW 60 OVER THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. /11

[Derek Ortt]

then why does a high res run off of CMC have this east of the Coast?

[Thunder44]

then why does a high res run off of CMC have this east of the Coast?

The 12z/26 GFS now has landfall in SE New England.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261557
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 05 20090826
154800 1921N 06631W 3921 07754 0431 -175 -325 218009 009 999 999 03
154830 1923N 06633W 3919 07759 0430 -175 -322 219009 010 999 999 03
154900 1925N 06635W 3918 07760 0431 -175 -321 221009 010 999 999 03
154930 1927N 06637W 3921 07762 0430 -175 -315 220010 010 999 999 03
155000 1929N 06639W 3922 07753 0430 -175 -312 218010 010 999 999 03
155030 1931N 06641W 3916 07765 0431 -175 -320 224010 010 999 999 03
155100 1933N 06643W 3919 07761 0430 -175 -321 221010 010 999 999 03
155130 1934N 06645W 3921 07753 0429 -175 -303 220011 011 999 999 03
155200 1936N 06647W 3918 07760 0430 -174 -310 228010 011 999 999 03
155230 1938N 06649W 3919 07757 0428 -175 -315 221011 011 999 999 03
155300 1940N 06652W 3917 07760 0429 -175 -299 217012 012 999 999 03
155330 1942N 06654W 3919 07759 0429 -175 -298 210012 012 999 999 03
155400 1944N 06656W 3919 07753 0428 -175 -306 209010 010 999 999 03
155430 1946N 06658W 3919 07753 0429 -175 -311 215011 011 999 999 03
155500 1948N 06700W 3919 07756 0428 -175 -308 211010 011 999 999 03
155530 1950N 06702W 3918 07754 0428 -176 -306 213012 013 999 999 03
155600 1952N 06704W 3921 07754 0427 -175 -304 209012 013 999 999 03
155630 1954N 06706W 3919 07758 0427 -175 -306 211012 012 999 999 03
155700 1956N 06708W 3919 07752 0427 -172 -310 208012 012 999 999 03
155730 1958N 06710W 3918 07758 0427 -173 -319 212013 015 999 999 03
$$

[Stephanie]

Yuck the CMC right over manhatten

Yep .... CMC has the trillion dollar storm scenario - major storm sweeping right up the eastern seaboard from the Grand Banks to Boston.

Let's all sincerely hope that doesn't verify.

I'm starting to get a sick feeling in my stomach. There isn't too much beach in front of the casinos in Atlantic City...maybe we won't have to worry about out of state competition anymore.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

The longer I stare at this loop, the more I am thinking that this thing MUST go farther west. Why? Well, if you look at the trough that is forming over the Gulf, it appears to be gaining more of a negative tilt and the upper low associated with it is nearly stationary...thus...this thing will likely be allowed to go a little further west than currently forecast. This is just my opinion and the facts that support it are in the imagery provided.

HOWEVER...there is a silver lining to all this...if you look closely, there is another piece of energy diving down through the Rockies as well that may energize the southern end of the trough currently situated over the Midwest. If that were to happen, then that would likely push the southern portion of the trough axis over the plains further east, which would then likely push the upper low further east, which would then push the trough in the Gulf further east.....so there is a lot to be taken into consideration...

[HURAKAN]

Going to lunch. I'll be back later!

[Thunder44]

12z/26 GFS landfall over SE Mass at 81hours:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNE ... tloop.html

[KWT]

Yep the 12z GFS does hit the NE on this run. Looks like the run is somewhat to the west of the previous runs in the latter term.

I personally think if the models will trend anywher eit wil lbe to the west, what is also interesting to watch is the upper feature near the Gulf coast, the models, esp the GFS bring this up to the NE pretty rapidly but we shall see, not sure whether this is the right idea or not.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261607
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 06 20090826
155800 1959N 06713W 3919 07751 0425 -175 -309 208014 015 999 999 03
155830 2001N 06715W 3919 07754 0425 -174 -311 208015 015 999 999 03
155900 2003N 06717W 3919 07752 0424 -173 -327 208015 016 999 999 03
155930 2005N 06719W 3920 07749 0423 -173 -321 205015 016 999 999 03
160000 2007N 06721W 3918 07748 0424 -170 -321 208015 015 999 999 03
160030 2009N 06723W 3919 07751 0423 -171 -335 210015 017 999 999 03
160100 2011N 06725W 3919 07749 0421 -175 -332 206018 018 999 999 03
160130 2013N 06727W 3921 07745 0420 -174 -323 203017 018 999 999 03
160200 2015N 06730W 3919 07751 0421 -175 -358 206017 017 006 001 03
160230 2017N 06732W 3919 07754 0422 -175 -354 203017 017 013 000 03
160300 2019N 06734W 3919 07751 0421 -174 -351 200016 017 015 000 03
160330 2021N 06736W 3921 07745 0421 -175 -380 200017 017 010 001 00
160400 2023N 06738W 3919 07752 0421 -171 -396 198017 017 009 001 00
160430 2025N 06740W 3919 07750 0420 -170 -401 199017 017 007 002 00
160500 2027N 06743W 3918 07746 0420 -175 -400 206017 017 012 001 00
160530 2029N 06745W 3921 07745 0420 -175 -403 205016 016 007 002 00
160600 2031N 06747W 3919 07749 0420 -175 -407 205017 017 015 001 00
160630 2032N 06749W 3921 07747 0421 -180 -402 206015 016 010 002 00
160700 2034N 06751W 3919 07754 0421 -178 -385 207016 016 013 001 00
160730 2036N 06753W 3917 07752 0422 -180 -381 208015 015 016 000 00
$$

[curtadams]

Right now there's no convection over Danny's center, due to dry air from the looks of it. All the convection is to the east and northeast. The cold cloudtops you sometimes see over the centerare outflow from the convection to the east (there was some convection nearer to the center at dawn but it's gone). That will draw Danny's center to the E/NE from the low wind direction and IMO he's already moving N of NW.

[seussianagenda]

I will definitely be keeping my eyes open for this one. I love on Willoughby Spit in Norfolk Va, It's a small peninsula that juts into the chesapeake. It's only about 800 ft wide, so if this has ANY winds or flooding, I'll be evacuating.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261617
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 07 20090826
160800 2038N 06755W 3921 07744 0420 -180 -374 211015 015 015 001 00
160830 2040N 06758W 3918 07751 0420 -180 -374 211015 015 013 001 00
160900 2042N 06800W 3919 07747 0421 -180 -375 213014 015 016 000 00
160930 2044N 06802W 3917 07753 0422 -180 -371 215014 014 012 002 00
161000 2046N 06804W 3919 07748 0421 -178 -373 208015 015 016 001 00
161030 2048N 06806W 3919 07749 0422 -178 -386 205015 015 011 001 03
161100 2049N 06809W 3919 07752 0421 -180 -385 211015 016 014 002 00
161130 2050N 06811W 3918 07749 0421 -180 -379 212015 015 017 000 00
161200 2052N 06814W 3919 07748 0421 -180 -377 206015 015 010 002 00
161230 2053N 06817W 3919 07746 0421 -180 -378 206014 015 016 001 00
161300 2054N 06819W 3919 07750 0421 -180 -377 204014 015 015 001 00
161330 2055N 06822W 3919 07747 0421 -180 -384 204013 013 017 000 00
161400 2057N 06824W 3919 07745 0420 -180 -385 203014 015 017 000 00
161430 2058N 06827W 3919 07744 0419 -180 -380 203014 015 013 002 00
161500 2059N 06830W 3918 07749 0420 -180 -381 203014 014 018 000 00
161530 2101N 06832W 3919 07749 0421 -180 -378 203014 014 018 000 03
161600 2102N 06835W 3919 07744 0419 -180 -375 201014 015 005 002 00
161630 2103N 06838W 3919 07746 0419 -180 -374 203015 015 016 001 00
161700 2104N 06840W 3917 07753 0420 -180 -362 205014 014 012 001 00
161730 2106N 06843W 3918 07749 0419 -180 -342 203014 015 011 002 00
$$

[Stormcenter]

A very good post...some people fail to realize or forget how much damage TS winds
can do to homes and property.

I read it at Eastern Us Weather, I am sorry for jumping the gun, maybe I am better off lurking...lol!

No apologies needed. Don't just lurk. You just reported what you read. Stormm2k has a policy about not calling a storm by name until it is officially called, even if every indication says it should be called.

Another lurker speaking, prompted by this encouragement - but posting only to ask a favor. . .

A couple of posts have indicated Danny will get to only Category and not post much of a threat here or there. Maybe not, BUT . . .

For the sake of the many S2K lurkers, some of whom may not be as savvy as you regular posters here, PLEASE don't downplay the possible threat of a tropical system. I had 4K in damage to my home from "mere" Tropical Storm Fay. And we were lucky. A lady we know was able to salvage only a few precious boxes of belongings from her home, which was a total loss as a result of just a Tropical Storm. In that particular neighborhood, she was not alone.

Apologies for the interruption, and a big thank you for all the great information and enlightening discussion that you guys provide.

[Frank2]

Wow, that TCD is really not very impressive when it comes to Danny's future - I wouldn't get in too much of a (cyclonic) twist over it, that's for sure, especially with the strong trough forecast to move towards the US EC by later Friday and Saturday (lows in the 40s forecast for the upper midwest by the weekend)...

Frank

[Macrocane]

Danny reminds me a little of 2003 Ana with little convection near the center and a very sheared appearence at some stage of its existence. It seems that at the end August will be in the normal range of activity after the slow start of the season.

[RNGR]

CMC 60hr