ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.

yeah Its not a inner core as you would have with a hurricane but its still well defined.. as for the upper winds they are still very divergent at the moment so not much decoupling because of that and its moving in the direction of the upper flow so the shear over the system is less than what you would see in the shear images.

[ozonepete]

Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.

Looks to me like LLC is already getting under some of the convection. I expect this to ramp up in a hurry overnight. And remember tonight is the nocturnal convective max period.

[Rainband]

Storms don't always listen to models or climatology. Time will tell what happens but I don't expect much more than rain from this where ever it goes.

[Ivanhater]

Another view of the Euro

[gatorcane]

Another point, the faster she moves, the farther north she will go before looping. She is already ahead of schedule coming off the coast. Something to watch for.

Take a look at the 200MB flow by day 5. How can it get through that to the NGOM in tact with West to East winds at 60K-80K?

It would be a naked swirl if it goes through that.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.

Looks to me like LLC is already getting under some of the convection. I expect this to ramp up in a hurry overnight. And remember tonight is the nocturnal convective max period.

yeah it being pulled under the convection. It should once the inflow on the sw and S side is over water in the next couple hours , we should see convection increase quite a bit.

[ozonepete]

Looks like they'll have to shift the track east again for the umpteenth time...

[wxman57]

Looks like they'll have to shift the track east again for the umpteenth time...

It might actually get pulled a bit west of north as the low in the SW Gulf begins to wind up over the weekend. It's a complicated mess with all 3 systems interacting (Ida, SW Gulf low, low in East Pac moving north). Hopefully, this is the end of the 2009 season after Ida.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe. Is there a well defined LLC left? I'm having a real hard time finding it. Looks to me the upper level winds may have blown the mid level north of whatever is left of the LLC.

yeah Its not a inner core as you would have with a hurricane but its still well defined.. as for the upper winds they are still very divergent at the moment so not much decoupling because of that and its moving in the direction of the upper flow so the shear over the system is less than what you would see in the shear images.

check out the upper divergence.. its quite high and will aid in the convection even it there is increased shear.

[srainhoutx]

Almost looks like a Perfect Storm Senario expect in the GOM. This will be interesting to watch unfold to say the least.

[Rainband]

Good point gator. I agree this will be a lopsided sheared "system" at best

[Ivanhater]

Your basing that off the GFS and ignoring all the other models on the trough placement.

Look at all the models I posted Gator, Ida interacts with the trough and boc system and becomes lopsided to the NW, with an expanding windfield.It makes sense with such a pressure gradient with the high pressure to the NW and the boc low moving north. Looks to merge and become extratropical perhaps. Nearly all the models show a very windy and rainy setup for the NCGC. SF looks to be on the lighter wind side and rain.

All this is the way it looks now, things could change. Healthy discussion happening here, Feels like August or September doesn't it?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like they'll have to shift the track east again for the umpteenth time...

It might actually get pulled a bit west of north as the low in the SW Gulf begins to wind up over the weekend. It's a complicated mess with all 3 systems interacting (Ida, SW Gulf low, low in East Pac moving north). Hopefully, this is the end of the 2009 season after Ida.

Interesting 12z model run with the lopsided system to the NW. With all these systems interacting and the pressure gradient, A wet and windy couple of days for the Northern gulfcoast it seems after reading some of the AFD'S, possible 40 knots off Louisiana possible!

[Aric Dunn]

Take a look at the wilma loop and pay close attention to the situation in the gulf and the otherwise hostile shear that would tear a wnw or NW moving system apart. the digging trough is visible but the upper flow is very divergence and the whole system is moving in the same direction with the flow in general. this type of set up is similar to what IDA has in store. Not saying it will be a wilma of course just that the upper flow can be a problem for a system or helpful in some cases and helpful meaning not completely terrible lol ..

if the system in the BOC does not start merging with it.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _Wilma.ogg

current
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rgb.jpg

[Macrocane]

It seems like the convection is eager to wrap up again around the center it will be very interesting to see how rapid the inner core redevelops. By the way, here all morning was cloudy but without rain, since an hour ago it started to drizzle and now heavy rain is falling.

hey macro, what city in El Salvador are you in?

Antiguo Cuscatlan, part of Metro-San Salvador. Where the black arrow is pointing.



Edit: to stay on topic the rain has stopped and the sun is trying to shine but it's mosly cloudy.

[ozonepete]

Looks like they'll have to shift the track east again for the umpteenth time...

It might actually get pulled a bit west of north as the low in the SW Gulf begins to wind up over the weekend. It's a complicated mess with all 3 systems interacting (Ida, SW Gulf low, low in East Pac moving north). Hopefully, this is the end of the 2009 season after Ida.

Interesting 12z model run with the lopsided system to the NW. With all these systems interacting and the pressure gradient, A wet and windy couple of days for the Northern gulfcoast it seems after reading some of the AFD'S, possible 40 knots off Louisiana possible!

With these 3 systems all interacting, this is going to be fascinating. There should be at least 1 or 2 big surprises before all is said and done.

[SouthFLTropics]

This may only be a significant rain event for wherever this ends up but that can still cause some major problems. All you have to do is look back at Fay last year to see the problems that large amounts of moisture can cause. A more recent case would be the flooding in Georgia a couple of months ago. Fortunately we may not have to worry about catastrophic winds from Ida but the rain may be a BIG problem to be reckoned with, especially if it merges with the other two systems out there.

SFT

[ozonepete]

BTW, the 12Z GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS (to a lesser degree) are all forecasting for shear to decrease ahead of Ida as it moves north. That is a change from yesterday's runs. You can see it on:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSHEARATL_12z/comploop.html

Also, Aric's point is really important and Wxman57 also said this earlier today. The shear can actually help when it is southwest ahead of a northerly moving TC. It can enhance the outflow and actually add to strengthening. Also, you have to subtract most of the storms forward motion from the shear if they're in the same direction.

[deltadog03]

Actually, it looks like the pandhandle and into the SE might see the worst out of all this mess coming into the SE next week. The SW GOM crap will entrain IDA and all of her moisture it appears. No doubt the mainland will get moisture out of this, but the firehose of moisture will be directed at the SE *atleast initially*

[Ivanhater]

Actually, it looks like the pandhandle and into the SE might see the worst out of all this mess coming into the SE next week. The SW GOM crap will entrain IDA and all of her moisture it appears. No doubt the mainland will get moisture out of this, but the firehose of moisture will be directed at the SE *atleast initially*

Yeah Chris, all of these systems in the gulf will make for a colorful satellite in the gulf come next week. A mess!