ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[brunota2003]

I figure they start writing these advisories well ahead of time. So maybe a last minute change to upgrade to a TS.

Nothing to support an upgrade to TS...both sat estimates and QS support nothing more than 25 knots. Even the buoy it is passing over has recorded nothing over 20 knots thus far.

[MWatkins]

nice to see you Mike. When do you think we will have a better picture of where this might go?

Good to see you too...

First, I'm a bit baffled that it hasn't been upgraded. I am not sure what else you need for classification unless someone is thinking it will be absorbed or sheared out.

I would guess we will have a better idea by the end of the weekend. If the models stay on this idea (and if the NHC eventually upgrades) then we'll be in full newscaster turned hurricane expert mode down here.

If that happens, I wonder if Mr. Norcross will come in off the bench and make a surprise appearance someplace...

MW

[JonathanBelles]

I personally, and uneducatedly see no reason why there isn't/wasn't an upgrade. Closed circulation, possible land threat, convection, satellite appearance, and no signs of a collapse.

[artist]

nice to see you Mike. When do you think we will have a better picture of where this might go?

Good to see you too...

First, I'm a bit baffled that it hasn't been upgraded. I am not sure what else you need for classification unless someone is thinking it will be absorbed or sheared out.

I would guess we will have a better idea by the end of the weekend. If the models stay on this idea (and if the NHC eventually upgrades) then we'll be in full newscaster turned hurricane expert mode down here.

If that happens, I wonder if Mr. Norcross will come in off the bench and make a surprise appearance someplace...

MW

thanks Mike. Will you be doing any shows this season?

[GeneratorPower]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

[MusicCityMan]

I can just see Avila now.. He's at his desk at the NHC.. ready to click the submit button to post an advisory on TD 2.. and he says "nah, maybe 5 am" lol

[Evil Jeremy]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

Just wondering, why are you exactly pinning this on Avila? Does Avila have a history of mistreating storms or something?

[jlauderdal]

I can just see Avila now.. He's at his desk at the NHC.. ready to click the submit button to post an advisory on TD 2.. and he says "nah, maybe 5 am" lol

the 28.8 dial up is a bit slow tonight

[srainhoutx]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

Remember, Bill Read is in charge.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a forecaster told the others in the office lets hold for another 6 hours to see how the system does.But at this time it looks impressive.

[brunota2003]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Looking at the WV...there is a lot of dry air, including some that is getting wrapped around the circulation...I cant help but wonder how long it'll be able to fight that off, when over half of it is surrounded by dry air?

[Stormsfury]

Lixion Avila on duty, there you go. Avila is quite conservative. I believe a nickname of Dr. Tropical Death was floating around a while back. Since 2008, I've noticed a trend at NHC that been on the conservative side.

[GeneratorPower]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

Just wondering, why are you exactly pinning this on Avila? Does Avila have a history of mistreating storms or something?

Avila is known for being very conservative and pessimistic on upgrades. We have learned this by watching his discussions and things like tonight take place on his watch.

[Air Force Met]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

Just wondering, why are you exactly pinning this on Avila? Does Avila have a history of mistreating storms or something?

Do you want the long answer or the short answer?

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like it is getting close to the ITCZ, will that have any effect?

[GeneratorPower]

AFM, I want the long answer!

[Evil Jeremy]

Maybe a forecaster told the others in the office lets hold for another 6 hours to see how the system does.But at this time it looks impressive.

Not only is it impressive right now, but as we approach the D-Max, things should continue to improve for (unofficially) TD2

[Derek Ortt]

that's it. Ortt is hungry!

Ortt is off to Wendy's since that is the only thing open!

[Tropics Guy]

Maybe they want to wait for visibles at 5a ?

[Evil Jeremy]

It's Avila. Plus they already cancelled advisories on this puppy once. They probably find it unstylish to go back and forth. I bet they want to be sure it's a keeper before they pull the trigger. But then again, it's Avila.

Just wondering, why are you exactly pinning this on Avila? Does Avila have a history of mistreating storms or something?

Do you want the long answer or the short answer?

The long answer, but keep it short if you can lol. Really though, please tell me.