ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

['CaneFreak]

the dry air just cannot penetrate the core. Dry air outside may lead to concentric rainbands and repeated EWRCs (see Bill)

I'll have to check my thesis again to see what the 1998-2005 mean environmental RH is for intensifying TCs

it can if it is getting sheared...as this system is from the north...albeit favorable shear (divergence)...the dry air entrainment and shear from the upper low is eating away at this thing's development chances right now...not saying it won't improve once it gets north of the islands but for now...no way...

[Gustywind]

So no FL or GOM threat?

That's just the sort of question we were afraid HURRICANELONNY's last post would generate. Look, it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land - even the Lesser Antilles.

Absolutely Abajan , excellent reasoning! Sometimes i'm upset about that... learning this type of statement, as usual don't forget the LESSER ANTILLES first, while it's important to mention as you say brightly : "it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land even the Lesser Antilles"!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looking at the water vapor loop suggests there is no dry air in this system.

['CaneFreak]

Looking at the water vapor loop suggests there is no dry air in this system.

we are talking about the environment AROUND the wave...the mid level dry air located to the north of the wave is entraining into the broad circulation of 94L due to the shear that is also present to the north of the system...thats what I am saying...

mid-level shear is also affecting the system and entraining the dry air caused by the upper low

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Gustywind]

Speaking about the size, looks like another member of Bill's family???= HUGE Decent structure, something is maybe cooking steadily?!

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem thanks for the reply.

[attallaman]

So no FL or GOM threat?

That's just the sort of question we were afraid HURRICANELONNY's last post would generate. Look, it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land - even the Lesser Antilles.

This discussion board being what I consider to be the Internet leader on discussions about the tropics, I was just asking a question which should not be interpreted as a question coming from someone who is "-removed-", I am not "-removed-", I was simply asking the question.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll give it this much, for a tropical wave it looks impressive and yet it continues to struggle to sustain convection, usually that is due to a lack of convergence/divergence aloft which it seems to have so the only other thing I can think of is dry air entrainment, maybe just enough to hold it in check but not enough to kill it off.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek.. what part of South Miami are you at? I live in West Kendall.

South Miami

[jlauderdal]

Container ship MSC Kenya located near 12.6N, 52.5W is reporting a pressure of 1005mb with a east southeast wind at 24 KTS. This is a German flaged ship so the above report should be accurate. There are a couple of ships to the north of the Kenya and they are reporting pressures in the 1011-1012 mb range. Information courtesy of sailwx.info.......MGC

now that is funny, German efficiency assumes that the ship report is accurate, problem is the instruments were made in china

[Gustywind]

Don't let your guard down carib islanders...
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Vigorous Atlantic Tropical low
Kevin Roth, and M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Aug. 30, 2009 5:03 pm ET
ATLANTIC

Shower and thunderstorm activity around an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean has become more organized. If the thunderstorm activity maintains itself a tropical depression could form in the next 24 hours.

The disturbed weather is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving off to the west-northwest. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor this system for future developments.
Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[Blown Away]

So no FL or GOM threat?

That's just the sort of question we were afraid HURRICANELONNY's last post would generate. Look, it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land - even the Lesser Antilles.

Absolutely Abajan , excellent reasoning! Sometimes i'm upset about that... learning this type of statement, as usual don't forget the LESSER ANTILLES first, while it's important to mention as you say brightly : "it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land even the Lesser Antilles"!

Gusty, we don't forget about the beautiful Caribbean Islands. We all look at these systems and wonder if they will affect our communities. Be honest, your interest in these systems is much less after they have passed your longitude. So I don't think it's fair for you to judge areas farther to the west for posting comments, forecasts, or concerns about their communites and not mentioning the islands in between. We are one big weather family!

[tgenius]

Derek.. what part of South Miami are you at? I live in West Kendall.

South Miami

That's specific

[Derek Ortt]

the dry air just cannot penetrate the core. Dry air outside may lead to concentric rainbands and repeated EWRCs (see Bill)

I'll have to check my thesis again to see what the 1998-2005 mean environmental RH is for intensifying TCs

it can if it is getting sheared...as this system is from the north...albeit favorable shear (divergence)...the dry air entrainment and shear from the upper low is eating away at this thing's development chances right now...not saying it won't improve once it gets north of the islands but for now...no way...

I dont think it is the mid level shear. The low level center would be decoupled if there is strong shear.

I think it is just the broad nature of the disturbance. These things can take quite a bit of time

[wxman57]

Maybe its just me, but this thing continues to be far from impressive. Still just a swirl of clouds with very little thunderstorm activity. Now even Ortt seems to think it will become a hurricane and wxman57 is not poo pooing it. But I really think if it were to develop it would be firing up some convective activity. What am I missing?

I'll remind you that we notified our clients in the NE Caribbean this morning that there was a possible hurricane threat for later this week.

However, nothing to see here tonight. Look for an upgrade tomorrow. Time for bed.

[Dean4Storms]

For this to make it to the Gulf either one of two things must happen....1) It remains nothing more than a wave and traverses the Carib. in which case shear looks bad so it prolly wouldn't make it. 2) Moves to north of Hisp. and misses the trough and any weaknesses, gets caught under a East Coast ridge and is turned back westward toward the Gulf, this would also make it a likely threat for crossing Florida or the Straits. Right now I would not worry about the Gulf, but keep up to date on it.

[Dean4Storms]

[/b]

Pretty significant northern shift there ain't it? By the BAM suite, I mean.

Bams did shift a little N, but I think the models are slowly starting to agree on a track skirting or just N of the NE Caribbean.[/quote]


Hmmm, don't like that 1012mb low in the Gulf either!

[jlauderdal]

Derek.. what part of South Miami are you at? I live in West Kendall.

South Miami

That's specific

about as specific "I live in West Kendall"

[george_r_1961]

Speaking about the size, looks like another member of Bill's family???= HUGE Decent structure, something is maybe cooking steadily?!

With a system this weak and little evidence of a surface circulation dont rely too heavily on how it looks on sattelite.

It may "look" good but appearances can be decieving. I think all we have here is a weak mid level vortex at best, giving it a circular appearance. The environment around it isnt very conducive at all and im not surprised convection has waned this evening.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek.. what part of South Miami are you at? I live in West Kendall.

South Miami

That's specific

not sure how much more specific I can get. There is a city of South Miami. You want my exact address, lol