ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wxman57]

Do you suppose the NHC is waiting to upgrade this to a TD because they want to get a better handle on the future track? The last wave that came off Africa looked quite impressive at this longitude but it went poof once it got a little further west. This wave seems to have a little stronger pulse and more moisture to work with. The models will do a better job if they have been initialized with a clear LLC position and with a longer history of the strengthening/weakening trend.

No, there's no rush as far as the NHC is concerned. It's a long way from any of its interests. A number of systems look like this near Africa, only to fall apart within 24 hrs. This looks like a TD now.

[cycloneye]

Surely is 57. Last visible image.

[wx247]

That looks impressive Luis. Thanks for sharing!

[jinftl]

Appears to have some banding features

[jinftl]

Several models show Ana being born (or coming very very close - 35kts = 40mph) in the next 12-24 hours, strengthening/maintaining, and then possibly weakening in a few days....that could be interesting in terms of track implications

[KWT]

I think it won't be long before we hear the NHC mention a tropical depression could form in today or tomorrow, red alert next time round surely!

As wxman57 said, it looks like a TD now.

[jinftl]

Latest model runs do shift west....compare 2pm tuns to earlier run posted in prior post (8am runs)

[vacanechaser]

Surely is 57. Last visible image.

looks like a nice little bomb going off... it really looks like a t.d at this point...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jinftl]

Wunderground graphic shows 99L with sustained winds of 30mph

[gatorcane]

Both the UKMET and ECMWF show good heights across the entire Atlantic at least up through 192 hours where a trough enters the picture in the Central Atlantic. No reason why 99L goes West or WNW for the next week or so...the pattern is zonal across the atlantic.

The real concern for me is the wave behind 99L which will likely be able to take advantage of those heights to track pretty far west. GFS and ECMWF bring that wave behind 99L very far west with significant development (by the GFS). No doubt that Cape Verde season is kicking off with a bang and that switch that I have been mentioning is about to turn on in the Atlantic about on schedule.

UKMET heights:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... t&VEC=none

[Aric Dunn]

that linear convergence band that was attached to the system has begun to wrap around to the south .. I would say its a very close to being a depression. by definition if it has a closed surface circ and at least some convection it is a depression .. it appears we do have a surface circulation forming quite fast.

[gatorcane]

Models are also jumping strongly on that wave east of 99L in Africa (even the ECMWF likes this wave) which appears to be a westrunner. It looks like it really could be our next invest so I started a thread where we can discuss:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106112

[PTrackerLA]

Looks excellent on satellite still with bursting convection seen in that last visible shot. Would be surprised if this is not upgraded to a TD by tomorrow. Welcome to the season everyone!

[jinftl]

Through Tuesday, wind shear is forecast to remain low in the area around 99L (generally under 10 kts)....water temps in its path are in the 27-28 C range. No reason why this shouldn't go ahead and develop imo

[HURAKAN]

Producing strong convection

[jinftl]

If it continues to look this good, I would expect an upgrade to 'code red' on the 8pm....2am at the latest....tropical weather outlooks put out by the nhc...and an upgrade to a depression shortly thereafter

[HURAKAN]

Accuwx's take

[wxman57]

If it continues to look this good, I would expect an upgrade to 'code red' on the 8pm....2am at the latest....tropical weather outlooks put out by the nhc...and an upgrade to a depression shortly thereafter

I agree. This could be Ana tomorrow. OK, so I was 2 days early with my May prediction of August 8th.

[gatorcane]

I think the next 24 hours will be a good indication. It's possible convection could start to really fizzle out as it heads towards marginal SSTs and into some SAL. Could be one of those where we all wake up tomorrow AM to see a much different structure with 99L. I think the NHC is waiting to see if that happens or else code RED would have already been assigned. Depression quite possible, but Ana, not so sure yet. I give it a 60% chance.

OKay - I cheated as I am looking at the 18Z GFS rolling in as we speak, does not develop Ana from this....still got to give the current satellite presentation some weight as it looks good at the moment.

[KWT]

99L still looking pretty decent, code red will surely be very soon. Still time for it to unravel of course but conditions look reasonable enough for development. I'm personally punting for an Alberto 2000 type track...well at least till the loop it took anyway!

As long as it has the feeder tail to its south and a good inflow I think the SAL really wouldn't be a big deal for this system, I think its that inflow that is the reason why this one has done so well while others instantly poofed as they headed more then 100 miles away from Africa.