ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

Looks like a due North movement and it maybe faster? Just think, NHC's 10AM EST advisory last night said it would reemerge into the NW Caribbean early Sat AM. We are ahead of schedule by at least 12 hours or more. So far it is tracking right of the NHC track for the most part from the very first cone they put out.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC's 10AM EST advisory last night

I must of missed that one.

[Ivanhater]

Well I'm certainly cursing the EURO right now, don't need it, don't want it!!

Just curious...do you have the link to the latest EURO run? If not, what's it look like?

[gatorcane]

NHC's 10PM EST advisory last night

I must of missed that one.

Corrected...on a side note, here is the buoy to watch, in the Yucatan Channel as Ida nears:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CST

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Dean4Storms"]Well I'm certainly cursing the EURO right now, don't need it, don't want it!![/quote]


Just curious...do you have the link to the latest EURO run? If not, what's it look like?[/quote]

[img]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif[/img][/quote]


Ouch....

Thanks Ivan

[SunnyThoughts]

Strange to think its even possible, to have your furnace running..( depending on how chilly it is) while your windows are boarded up, expecting a cane/TS lol

[pepeavilenho]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 NOV 2009 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 15:43:32 N Lon : 83:54:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.4mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.3 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Center Temp : +5.8C Cloud Region Temp : -18.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 16:31:12 N Lon: 83:30:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[NEXRAD]

Climatology and the approach of a frontal boundary by early to mid next week will favor Ida taking a more right track than the model guidance that brings Ida into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. If I recall right, I think I saw some of the models spinning-up a spurious low over the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of apparent Ida-meets frontal boundary mess. I wonder if there's some sort of a feedback issue with some of the guidance?

- Jay
South Florida

[Ivanhater]

Climatology and the approach of a frontal boundary by early to mid next week will favor Ida taking a more right track than the model guidance that brings Ida into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. If I recall right, I think I saw some of the models spinning-up a spurious low over the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of apparent Ida-meets frontal boundary mess. I wonder if there's some sort of a feedback issue with some of the guidance?

- Jay
South Florida

It's not a spurious low, there is a low developing right now in the boc.

[NEXRAD]

Climatology and the approach of a frontal boundary by early to mid next week will favor Ida taking a more right track than the model guidance that brings Ida into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. If I recall right, I think I saw some of the models spinning-up a spurious low over the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of apparent Ida-meets frontal boundary mess. I wonder if there's some sort of a feedback issue with some of the guidance?

- Jay
South Florida

It's not a spurious low, there is a low developing right now in the boc.

I stand corrected. Thanks for pointing out what I should've seen! As can be evidenced by my lack of Ida posts, I've been swamped with work this week.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

Ramping up in the dvorak department.

[ericinmia]

I'm no expert, but if you look at the Euro on the PSU wall, it clearly shows what is the flaw in it. It believes that IDA is going to move WNW across the Central America to join in with the other disturbance. It also has a really poor initialization. (Even for a Global Model.)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Since it doesn't initialize very well, and it is doing something that is obviously not happening... I would throw it's idea out. Something in the way of interaction between the 'players' may occur... but not like this.



Ideas?

[ozonepete]

Well, we know Dvoark doesn't do well on developing systems, but that's just crazy. It's probably getting fooled by the intense convection. Thank God the .5T/hr constraint is on!!

[artist]

Climatology and the approach of a frontal boundary by early to mid next week will favor Ida taking a more right track than the model guidance that brings Ida into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. If I recall right, I think I saw some of the models spinning-up a spurious low over the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of apparent Ida-meets frontal boundary mess. I wonder if there's some sort of a feedback issue with some of the guidance?

- Jay
South Florida

It's not a spurious low, there is a low developing right now in the boc.

I stand corrected. Thanks for pointing out what I should've seen! As can be evidenced by my lack of Ida posts, I've been swamped with work this week.

- Jay
South Florida

I hope you have time to give us your ideas Jay once you have a chance to check everything out.

[ozonepete]

Also, the movement sure looks a little NNE to me.

[gatorcane]

Also, the movement sure looks a little NNE to me.

Well it may be some SW shear increasing but it has the appears it is getting a "nudge" to the NE over the past couple of hours. Movement still seems North though.

[cycloneye]

Well, we know Dvoark doesn't do well on developing systems, but that's just crazy. It's probably getting fooled by the intense convection. Thank God the .5T/hr constraint is on!!

I agree is too high right now.If I say what number it is right now,its a 2.5/2.5.

[Aric Dunn]

Also, the movement sure looks a little NNE to me.

Well it may be some SW shear increasing but seems like its getting a "nudge" to the NE over the past couple of hours.

The latest shear map has it decreasing ... and shifting ever so slightly farther north ..

[NEXRAD]

Eric,

Your interpretation of the Euro looks reasonable to me. I've not had a chance to look at anything higher res with the Euro. Either way, I stand by the right guidance envelope. With the advancing frontal boundary Monday-Wednesday and climo in mind, Ida should keep on a more easterly course. This isn't to say that it will not approach the North Central Gulf Coast in some fashion, but that a tight eastward curve should manifest in the storm path - provided it maintains some sort of a closed low identity.

Artist,

I may have some time this weekend, but have a critical research presentation to prep for, too. I have some thoughts more on what to watch for with Ida than forecast. Might post those later tonight.

- Jay
South Florida

[ozonepete]

Also, the movement sure looks a little NNE to me.

Well it may be some SW shear increasing but seems like its getting a "nudge" to the NE over the past couple of hours.

The latest shear map has it decreasing ... and shifting ever so slightly farther north ..

Yes.

And boy does this look like it's really starting to pop. I agreee Aric, that once that SW quadrant gets fully clear of the coast, watch out...