94 L discussion from crownweather.com
Discussion
Invest 94L Located 950 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:
The overall convection associated with a broad area of low pressure, labeled Invest 94L, has increased overnight and has become better organized. 94L was located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands this morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should pay very close attention to the progress of Invest 94L. 94L was tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph and this general course is expected to continue for at least the next couple of days.
The computer forecast guidance is not matching up with what is actually happening with 94L. The dynamical models, such as the GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS models, forecast an immediate turn to the northwest when in fact it is tracking west-northwest. The simple models, such as the BAM and LBAR models, are forecasting a west-northwest course and do not show any turns to the northwest for the next 3 to 5 days. It is interesting to note that the GFS model weakens 94L and hands the energy off to the north causing a poleward turn. The European model, on the other hand, is forecasting a track very close to the northern Lesser Antilles by late this week. It should be noted that the European model has been the most consistent in keeping this system south of 20 North Latitude.
Here are my thoughts: I think the northeastern Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe and points north and then west to Puerto Rico, need to keep very close watch on 94L. I am essentially disregarding the dynamical models as the immediate northwest turn is bogus and I am leaning much closer to a blend of the simple BAM and the European model. I strongly suspect that 94L will pass south of the 15 North/50 West benchmark. This benchmark is for the northeast Caribbean Islands. If a storm passes to the south of that benchmark, then the risk to the northeast Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico, increases dramatically.
As for development and intensification, all indications are that this system will continue to organize today and I fully suspect it will be classified as a tropical depression by sometime tomorrow, if not earlier. The SHIPS and LGEM models forecast 94L to be a hurricane in about 3 days and then a upper end Category 2 hurricane in 5 days. Based on the fact that shear directly to the north of 94L may actually be creating a outflow channel for it and also the fact that 94L is becoming better and better organized with each passing hour, I have every reason to think that this system will steadily intensify this week.
Again, I want to emphasize that all interests in the Lesser Antilles need to keep a very close eye on the progress of this system.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Monday.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Decent structure, something is maybe cooking steadily?!
good reasoning Cycloneye 
so we keep your support in our hands hoping the best during the peak of the season. Hope one day you will discover the Lesser Antilles and especially Guadeloupe and appreciate its pleasures 
