ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Emmett_Brown]

Andrew was a swirl at some poimt then it bombed out east of the Bahamas.I look at Ex Fred and think what if this happens to Fred, bombing out in the Bahamas.I think all of us think that in back of our minds.

Yup, mine too. The first think i thought when I saw the tight small circ was "look out if the shear lets up". These small storms can spin up really rapidly, and weaken just as quickly.

[Emmett_Brown]

Guys, just noticed this. If you open the URL of the pic that Arin posted above, you will see, embedded in the URL, the following:

07LFRED.30kts-1011mb-259N-670W

Here is the full link:

"http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/ATL/07L.FRED/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20090918.1915.goes12.x.vis1km_high.07LFRED.30kts-1011mb-259N-670W.100pc.jpg"

30 kts is 35 mph, solid TD strength assuming they decide to classify it.

[gatorcane]

Andrew was a swirl at some poimt then it bombed out east of the Bahamas.I look at Ex Fred and think what if this happens to Fred, bombing out in the Bahamas.I think all of us think that in back of our minds.

Yeah I certainly do, any system that is in the area ex-Fred is at with building ridge needs close watching. Fortunately ex-Fred has alot of work to do to get going so maybe he'll just run out of time.

[AdamFirst]

so at 3 eastern tomorrow?

No, this was for today, I think

[HURAKAN]

so at 3 eastern tomorrow?

No, this was for today, I think

No, it's for tomorrow

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew was a swirl at some poimt then it bombed out east of the Bahamas.I look at Ex Fred and think what if this happens to Fred, bombing out in the Bahamas.I think all of us think that in back of our minds.

Andrew was an open wave that redeveloped east of the Bahamas and struck the Bahamas as a cat 5

[gatorcane]

TD already Emmett?

Not sure I believe that but...
Fred has gone to just about nothing to something (tight swirl) in less than 24 hours, pretty amazing because there is shear still.

Now if convection starts to blow up then it could get up to TD status.

[jaxfladude]

This has my full attention during the weekend!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ivanhater]

We saw a burst this morning but was sheared, so given the progress of this system, I think we will see another burst tonight with shear relaxing

[jlauderdal]

This has my full attention during the weekend!

[Bocadude85]

Guess I am on swirl watch here in Palm Beach County.

[somethingfunny]

[HURAKAN]

[Bocadude85]

still labelled 07 by sfwd -

Im assuming that the ridge building in causes Ex Fred to move to the WSW?

[Ivanhater]

Getting a bit more convection near the center

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL


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000
FXUS62 KMLB 181753
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...


MON-WED...INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANT WAVE FROM FRED) IS FORECAST TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS MON INTO TUE. THE FLOW SHOULD VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE WAVE PASSES BY AND EXPECT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS TUE-WED...AND MAYBE EVEN A SOLID 15 KNOTS
IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TUE-WED TOO.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

[artist]

it seems the site is down right now, so hopefully they will be back up soon so we can see the model map image again.

This is weird, I tried to ping it got this -
Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: unable to connect to whois.dotgov.gov:43 (Connection refused) in /home/dnstools/public_html/whois.php on line 69

[webke]

So since the models and the regluar posters that always seems to know what they are talking about have this going into Florida, does this mean that the swirl will not be pulling a recurve up to the Carolinas

[jlauderdal]

So since the models and everyone that always seems to know what they are talking about, does this mean that the swirl will not be pulling a recurve up to the Carolinas

i am sounding the all clear for your location, enjoy