ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[UpTheCreek]

the LLC is clearly moving NW on 1km visible. The coordinates show as such.

It is not coming to Florida. No chance at all. It is not coming to Georgia, no chance at all.

This will keep moving WNW to NW until it turns

Boy are you going to disappoint "some" Florida and Georgia people.......

He's more than welcome to keep going and "disappoint" me too!

[HURAKAN]

691
URNT12 KNHC 261849
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 26/17:54:10Z
B. 25 deg 00 min N
070 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 16 kt
E. 359 deg 6 nm
F. 067 deg 15 kt
G. 012 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 23 C / 465 m
J. 23 C / 454 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF307 0205A DANNY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 18:38:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 18:38:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[HURAKAN]

691
URNT12 KNHC 261849
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 26/17:54:10Z
B. 25 deg 00 min N
070 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 16 kt
E. 359 deg 6 nm
F. 067 deg 15 kt
G. 012 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 23 C / 465 m
J. 23 C / 454 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF307 0205A DANNY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 18:38:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 18:38:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;



The storm system marks the position at 11 AM. How do we translate this to surface winds? 90%? 85%?

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261857
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 23 20090826
184800 2646N 06910W 9584 00471 0116 +205 +200 104044 046 040 000 00
184830 2645N 06913W 9587 00468 0115 +205 +202 103043 043 041 000 03
184900 2645N 06915W 9587 00466 0114 +206 +201 103043 044 041 001 03
184930 2645N 06918W 9586 00465 0114 +205 +202 100043 045 040 000 00
185000 2645N 06920W 9588 00464 0112 +206 +200 101044 045 040 002 00
185030 2645N 06923W 9583 00468 0112 +207 +199 101044 046 040 000 00
185100 2644N 06925W 9589 00462 0111 +208 +199 101044 045 043 000 03
185130 2644N 06928W 9587 00462 0110 +210 +199 098043 043 043 000 03
185200 2644N 06930W 9586 00462 0109 +210 +200 097043 044 042 000 03
185230 2644N 06933W 9583 00466 0109 +209 +204 099042 042 041 001 03
185300 2644N 06935W 9585 00463 0108 +211 +205 098040 042 040 000 00
185330 2643N 06938W 9589 00458 0107 +213 +199 096043 045 041 001 00
185400 2643N 06940W 9589 00456 0107 +206 +206 096043 044 042 000 03
185430 2643N 06943W 9582 00464 0105 +206 +206 096042 043 040 000 00
185500 2643N 06945W 9585 00460 0104 +210 +207 098045 045 039 001 00
185530 2642N 06948W 9587 00458 0103 +210 +205 096046 047 040 000 03
185600 2642N 06950W 9585 00459 0102 +212 +202 098046 047 040 000 03
185630 2642N 06953W 9587 00455 0101 +211 +202 098046 047 040 001 00
185700 2642N 06955W 9587 00456 0102 +210 +202 098045 046 040 001 00
185730 2642N 06958W 9587 00453 0101 +204 +204 098045 046 043 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

At 18:48:00Z (first observation), the observation was 464 miles (747 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
At 18:57:30Z (last observation), the observation was 472 miles (760 km) to the ENE (76°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[KWT]

Yeah it seems much more likely that this LLC will eventually weaken and a new one forms in the convection however that would probably limit how strong this system could become given the time scales involved.

[Derek Ortt]

seems like they fixed an eddy

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 261907
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 24 20090826
185800 2641N 07001W 9589 00450 0100 +202 +202 094046 047 042 000 03
185830 2641N 07003W 9585 00453 0098 +207 +207 092045 046 043 001 00
185900 2641N 07006W 9589 00449 0097 +210 +203 095049 050 043 000 03
185930 2641N 07008W 9586 00454 0097 +212 +203 094046 049 042 001 00
190000 2640N 07011W 9588 00450 0098 +210 +208 093042 043 038 002 03
190030 2640N 07013W 9586 00452 0097 +211 +211 093040 040 035 004 03
190100 2640N 07016W 9588 00451 0097 +213 +202 095044 045 035 001 03
190130 2640N 07018W 9584 00454 0096 +214 +204 099045 046 037 003 03
190200 2639N 07021W 9586 00453 0096 +214 +207 100041 041 036 002 03
190230 2639N 07023W 9585 00454 0096 +212 +208 100039 040 037 001 03
190300 2639N 07026W 9585 00453 0095 +209 +209 096036 038 034 003 03
190330 2639N 07028W 9592 00446 9990 +198 +999 092035 036 033 005 05
190400 2639N 07031W 9583 00453 0094 +203 +203 084035 036 036 002 05
190430 2638N 07033W 9591 00445 0093 +214 +214 090033 034 031 003 00
190500 2638N 07035W 9586 00450 0092 +216 +215 088034 035 032 003 00
190530 2638N 07038W 9583 00454 0093 +217 +215 083034 034 032 002 03
190600 2638N 07040W 9589 00449 0093 +217 +215 083033 033 031 003 00
190630 2637N 07043W 9585 00452 0092 +220 +212 083034 034 033 002 03
190700 2637N 07045W 9585 00451 0092 +219 +212 075035 036 033 002 00
190730 2637N 07048W 9587 00448 0092 +215 +215 073035 036 032 004 00
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

true... I'd love for this to die. Every day there is a storm means 4:30 a.m. wake-up for me

You need to quit fooling around, get your doctorate, and get a real job!

We could still use some help.

its 4:30 a.m. wake up to make sure the model has run properly. I may use these runs to get my doctorate, lol (or at least plan future research)

[artist]

At 18:58:00Z (first observation), the observation was 469 miles (755 km) to the ENE (76°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:07:30Z (last observation), the observation was 421 miles (677 km) to the ENE (75°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[storms NC]

What happen to a weak storm moves west? Just thought I would ask?

[brunota2003]

Judging by the weak appearance, wouldn't you use 80% on this system? Shallow convection, very disorganized...meaning lesser than normal winds getting to the surface.

[HURAKAN]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Now has this only just reaching hurricane status so still going down in terms of expected strength.

as long as isnt stronger than a Cat 1 everything will be ok IMO

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261917
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 25 20090826
190800 2637N 07050W 9596 00441 0092 +214 +214 073034 034 028 004 03
190830 2637N 07052W 9583 00452 0092 +219 +208 078035 035 029 005 03
190900 2636N 07055W 9589 00448 0094 +202 +202 069034 036 032 006 05
190930 2636N 07057W 9588 00447 0094 +217 +217 068033 035 029 003 03
191000 2636N 07100W 9584 00452 0094 +216 +214 071034 035 030 001 03
191030 2636N 07102W 9588 00449 0094 +215 +212 072035 036 033 000 03
191100 2635N 07105W 9585 00455 0095 +215 +212 071036 036 035 000 00
191130 2635N 07107W 9589 00449 0096 +204 +204 065038 040 036 001 00
191200 2635N 07110W 9582 00455 0096 +203 +203 062037 038 036 000 01
191230 2635N 07112W 9584 00455 0097 +203 +203 062036 037 034 002 01
191300 2634N 07114W 9590 00449 0096 +215 +215 060035 036 034 001 00
191330 2634N 07117W 9585 00453 0097 +213 +213 059036 037 034 001 00
191400 2634N 07119W 9588 00452 0096 +217 +211 062033 033 034 000 00
191430 2634N 07122W 9586 00453 0096 +219 +206 059034 034 034 000 00
191500 2633N 07124W 9590 00448 0095 +219 +211 060033 034 035 000 00
191530 2633N 07126W 9586 00453 0096 +217 +213 059034 036 035 000 03
191600 2633N 07129W 9588 00450 0094 +219 +208 063036 037 036 000 03
191630 2633N 07131W 9584 00453 0093 +226 +200 063037 038 035 000 03
191700 2632N 07134W 9586 00451 0094 +223 +203 065036 037 036 000 00
191730 2632N 07136W 9585 00453 0095 +220 +207 065037 037 036 000 03
$$
;

[storms NC]

It is about the same as 11AM's models more to the west than 11AM
So the tren to the west has started

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

At 19:08:00Z (first observation), the observation was 419 miles (674 km) to the ENE (75°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 371 miles (598 km) to the ENE (74°) from Nassau, Bahamas.