ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[southerngale]

There may not be any threat to the CONUS this season the way things are going.
We are about to hit Sept. and the peak. We all know the fronts just get stronger
and stronger as we get closer to Fall. It almost feels like some are just grasping at air and
hoping for something to threaten U.S. The Cape Verde season will be closing it's doors
before you know it.

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

Discussing possibilities and/or concerns does not equate "grasping at air and hoping for something to threaten the U.S." This is a tropical weather message board. That's what people do... talk about the tropics. Anyone who isn't interested in reading/discussing an Invest that is this far out probably doesn't belong in this thread.

[Bocadude85]

Just now looked at the 12z Euro, I will say even though it doesnt do much with 94L it does build in a decent ridge and does seem to steer 94L in the general directions of the Bahamas

[paintplaye]

There may not be any threat to the CONUS this season the way things are going.
We are about to hit Sept. and the peak. We all know the fronts just get stronger
and stronger as we get closer to Fall. It almost feels like some are just grasping at air and
hoping for something to threaten U.S. The Cape Verde season will be closing it's doors
before you know it.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

Discussing possibilities and/or concerns does not equate "grasping at air and hoping for something to threaten the U.S." This is a tropical weather message board. That's what people do... talk about the tropics. Anyone who isn't interested in reading/discussing an Invest that is this far out probably doesn't belong in this thread.

Amen! I have been waiting for someone to tell him about this. Too many times I see him on here thinking that everyone on this forum wants a storm to come their way. Most of us here like following storms and it is those type of comments that no one wants.


*edited to fix quotes

[floridasun78]

how few here say this fish storm when few run show no turn out to sea untill we see it we all along coast need watch it we got long weekrend coming up donot but guard down people this weekend coming alot people will be at beach no one safe yet i see few here say it safe

[Stormcenter]

No offense to anyone who took my post personally....it just my opinion
which I based on climatology and the way the season has played out so far.

[jinftl]

At the speed 94L is moving....and based on the distance from even the closest point in the lower 48 being 2300 miles, this is not going to be a Labor Day weekend threat. Any threat.....if any...would be a few to several days after the holiday weekend.

how few here say this fish storm when few run show no turn out to sea untill we see it we all along coast need watch it we got long weekrend coming up donot but guard down people this weekend coming alot people will be at beach no one safe yet i see few here say it safe

[Sanibel]

Look for d-max pulse around 5-6am.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like convection is building again in this Atlantic Wide View Shot. Things could get interesting on down the line.

[deltadog03]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

convection is building pretty good now..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Fego]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

No more due west for our candidate.

[Scorpion]

convection is building pretty good now..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Should be a TD at 5 or at 11 at the latest

[jinftl]

The NHC has been giving the system a west-northwest heading in every TWO for the last 21 hours...this is nothing new

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

No more due west for our candidate.

[Fego]

Ummmm thanks jinftl.. Here is the image that Aric Dunn was talking about.

[Aric Dunn]

latest.. that is a significant burst.. that is a very large system ..

also its around 12.5 to 14N

[Aric Dunn]

06 best track

AL, 94, 2009083106, , BEST, 0, 133N, 503W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Aric Dunn]

SSD

31/0615 UTC 14.1N 49.5W T1.0/1.5 94L

[carolina_73]

Looking good now. Finally some deep convection near the center.

[Aric Dunn]

latest model error

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... _perf.html

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the 00z Eurp..it looks like this feature is in the Gulf at 240 hours

216 hours ..just off the east coast of Florida



240