ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[wzrgirl1]

Thank you Nexrad and ozone for your insight and explanations. I can't get enough of this site! See you all in the morning.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wzrgirl1]

windfield expanding...wow

[cycloneye]

Lets see when recon goes tommorow afternoon how strong they find Ida.

[artist]

what time are they to arrive cycloneye? thanks for keeping up with that stuff for us too. There is such a great bunch around here.

And AJC3 nice to see you posting too!

Aric, Ozone and all, your continued insight is valuable to us all.

[NEXRAD]

Reasonable convective appearance... the outflow pattern north of the circulation is looking respectable enough, too. For a year with a developing El-Nino, I have to admit this storm's surprising to me.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

what time are they to arrive cycloneye?

I posted the plan of the day at the recon thread but I can tell you that the plane departs from Biloxi at 7:15 AM EST and arrives at Ida around 1 PM EST.

[artist]

Reasonable convective appearance... the outflow pattern north of the circulation is looking respectable enough, too. For a year with a developing El-Nino, I have to admit this storm's surprising to me.

- Jay
South Florida

Do you think it will really make a loop?

[ozonepete]

Reasonable convective appearance... the outflow pattern north of the circulation is looking respectable enough, too. For a year with a developing El-Nino, I have to admit this storm's surprising to me.

- Jay
South Florida

Me too. And I'm really enjoying your posts. Wish I was in south Florida right now.

[ozonepete]

what time are they to arrive cycloneye?

I posted the plan of the day at the recon thread but I can tell you that the plane departs from Biloxi at 7:15 AM EST and arrives at Ida around 1 PM EST.

Thanks, cyclone. I'm really looking forward to this one.

[artist]

what time are they to arrive cycloneye?

I posted the plan of the day at the recon thread but I can tell you that the plane departs from Biloxi at 7:15 AM EST and arrives at Ida around 1 PM EST.

thank you, guess I got lazy! lol I will go over there next, promise!

[blp]

Nice loop below. Seems like the convection is being displaced on the northern side because of shear or do you guys think the center might be moving a little faster to join up to the convective bursts?

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

[NEXRAD]

Artist,

I think that the loop may be the TPC's best estimate for a storm track, though if this system does go extratropical in the Gulf, the "loop" might be moot as the forecasting would shift over to the HPC, more than likely. My best guess from seeing these type of systems over the past decade is that Ida ends up merging with the future frontal boundary and passes along a sharply curving northeast path. Don't quote that as a forecast, though.

Ozonepete,

I'd trade for somewhere the leaves have turned and where I could get some fresh apple cider! It's still too warm down here.

- Jay
South Florida

[Macrocane]

Maybe an update later, I think it will become a tropical storm before the next advisory is issued. Based on IR and buoy reports this is not far from being a TS, if it is not already one.

[Evil Jeremy]

Reasonable convective appearance... the outflow pattern north of the circulation is looking respectable enough, too. For a year with a developing El-Nino, I have to admit this storm's surprising to me.

- Jay
South Florida

Me too. And I'm really enjoying your posts. Wish I was in south Florida right now.

I wish I wasn't. The overall humidity is killer. Yea, we have had a couple days of breezy conditions, but its still too humid.

Anyways, Ida looks like she is improving, but I personally think she is a while away from becoming a hurricane again, if she does at all.

[ROCK]

0z NAM at 84hr....yes its the NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Ivanhater]

HPC Forecast..looks very wet for the Northern Gulf!

[wxman57]

So, do you guys think it is likely that Ida will become extra tropical as is currently forecast, or remain tropical through landfall?

I'm not sure there will be a landfall in the Gulf. That hook in the track at the end is when the cold front reaches it. The larger west-Gulf low on the front NW of Ida may well just absorb what's left of Ida as it tracks eastward along the Gulf coast. As the NHC is saying, it's a complex situation. There may be nothing left to make landfall in 5 days.

[ROCK]

So, do you guys think it is likely that Ida will become extra tropical as is currently forecast, or remain tropical through landfall?

I'm not sure there will be a landfall in the Gulf. That hook in the track at the end is when the cold front reaches it. The larger west-Gulf low on the front NW of Ida may well just absorb what's left of Ida as it tracks eastward along the Gulf coast. As the NHC is saying, it's a complex situation. There may be nothing left to make landfall in 5 days.

The 0z NAM said something similar. Merges the lows over the SGOM....

[Ivanhater]

So, do you guys think it is likely that Ida will become extra tropical as is currently forecast, or remain tropical through landfall?

I'm not sure there will be a landfall in the Gulf. That hook in the track at the end is when the cold front reaches it. The larger west-Gulf low on the front NW of Ida may well just absorb what's left of Ida as it tracks eastward along the Gulf coast. As the NHC is saying, it's a complex situation. There may be nothing left to make landfall in 5 days.

The 0z NAM said something similar. Merges the lows over the SGOM....

Yep, as well as the Canadian, Nogaps and Euro