ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Blown Away]

Well the ECMWF has even more ridging across the Western Atlantic as some have mentioned. The trend can't be denied. It keeps building the Bermuda High even strong with each run.

That means this thing could move in the general direction of the SE Bahamas over the next week. Certainly this scenario will need to be watched closely by those in the Bahamas and FL. Future Erika has got my attention even more now.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9083100!!/

BTW -- interesting little feature approaching the Bahamas now........

Yep, your right that run will keep me interested for a few more days!

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF puts a weak low (94L) through the FL straits at 192 hours.

[Gustywind]

TPC's thinking

Looks close the Leewards , Guadeloupe directly impacted and heading on Cycloneye location. Humm not so good at all on this tkinking...too close for comfort hopefully it's only predictions and things can change quickly let's hope

[cycloneye]

884
ABNT20 KNHC 311135
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

The TWO doesn't seem to indicate that a depression will form at 11 AM.

[gatorcane]

I've opened up a new thread on the area that has quickly popped up East of the SE Bahamas.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106426&p=1916224#p1916224

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TampaFl]

The ECMWF puts a weak low (94L) through the FL straits at 192 hours.

Link Please.

Thanks

Robert

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF puts a weak low (94L) through the FL straits at 192 hours.

Link Please.

Thanks

Robert

It's actually 216 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9083100!!/

Also here is the NAM:

[cycloneye]

The TWO doesn't seem to indicate that a depression will form at 11 AM.

Yes,I didnt see the urgency to upgrade there.I think they are waiting for persistance of convection.

[gatorcane]

Is that XTRAP correct? Seems to be moving right of the models now. What is the estimated direction of movement? Thx.

[x-y-no]

Much respect to Derek, who argued that the northern end of this thing would take over. I just didn't see it, but sure enough it looks like he was right.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, this is a TD now, but I guess the NHC will wait. They might start advisories at 11 AM, but I think 5 PM is more likely.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 13N50W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOT ANALYZED AS THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS 13N-16N BETWEEN 48W-52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 45W-52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 53W-55W. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WNW 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

didn't get the entire circulation

[KWT]

Looks like good agreement on a general WNW/NW track over the next few days however the ECM still builds in a high over the SW Atlantic.

Saying that there is still a weakness to the NW of any building high so a WNW track rather then west would be more likely and therefore a greater risk to the Carolinas IMO...despite what the ECM shows...

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

31/1145 UTC 15.2N 51.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[KWT]

Well the motion may not be NW but the center sure did reform last night...very similar in fact to what pre-Fay did last year in this location.

Track should keep to the WNW/NW over the next few days however I think there is a real chance of high pressure building back in and shunting this back WNW around 23-25N...I think probably could be a Carolinas/NE threat given the keen nature of the ECM to build in the high and given the GFS/CMC bias at having heights too low in the eastern US thus far.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 521W, 25, 1008, DB

[Derek Ortt]

looks like good westerly shear has got to this this morning. Check the inflow bands. The center looks at the western edge or west of the convection