ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

The 12 UTC SHIP shear forecast looks favorable for 94L.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL942009  08/31/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)         7     2     8     4     4     2     4     9    10    12     5    12    12


[otowntiger]

if this deosn't develop today, it probably does not develop at all given the latest shear trends

I am curious, just how HORRIFIC does the upper shear forecasts have to be before changes are made? These shear forecasts are embarrassing. Last night, SHIPS was showing strong EASTERLY shear affecting this in 48 hours.

Well Derek you one of the scientists, go help them figure it out. We're all behind you!

[hurricanetrack]

If it does develop today then it should be torn apart tomorrow then based on that thinking. Perhaps this will never be upgraded since it looks like there is enough shear to reduce this to a pile of ashes and then those ashes get blown around by even more shear. This would explain very well why the global models don't "see" this. It won't be there to see apparently. Oh well, it was interesting while it lasted. I suspect that the next TWO would mention the unfavorable upper level winds ahead and am not sure why the last one did not.

[Evil Jeremy]

If it does develop today then it should be torn apart tomorrow then based on that thinking. Perhaps this will never be upgraded since it looks like there is enough shear to reduce this to a pile of ashes and then those ashes get blown around by even more shear. This would explain very well why the global models don't "see" this. It won't be there to see apparently. Oh well, it was interesting while it lasted. I suspect that the next TWO would mention the unfavorable upper level winds ahead and am not sure why the last one did not.

You make it sound like this system is already dead. Anything can happen in the tropics, and I don't think this system will simply fall apart.

[Derek Ortt]

The 12 UTC SHIP shear forecast looks favorable for 94L.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL942009  08/31/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)         7     2     8     4     4     2     4     9    10    12     5    12    12


Let me guess, the Good For you know what missed another large UL?

[MGC]

Looks like a TD to me...but the NHC has the final say but if I were running the place I'd say UPGRADE! Sure don't look any worst than Danny did.......MGC

[x-y-no]

Much of that shear directly ahead is due to outflow from 94L itself. I think pretty much all of the increase in shear overnight as depicted by CIMSS is attributable to the burst of convection.

That said, there is an issue with mid-level westerly shear ahead which looks like it could inhibit development.

[Aric Dunn]

THe shear should stay about the same as long as it moves with the upper lows.. since they are just about moving in tandum right now..

[hurricanetrack]

I just looked at the ECMWF shear map for the next 168 hours and wow! It is really looking bad for this thing. I totally missed that when thinking this would develop and be a player. Unless all of these models are off the mark, there is shear city out there waiting for this thing. I would post the links to these maps but they are on a proprietary site with a password. I have my doubts now unless something unexpected happens. Could be a short upgrade like Ingrid in 2007- remember THAT one. It was downright obscene to watch that poor puppy get killed by shear approaching Mach 1.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a TD to me...but the NHC has the final say but if I were running the place I'd say UPGRADE! Sure don't look any worst than Danny did.......MGC

upgrading on looks isnt very scientific nor is it how things are done

['CaneFreak]

I just looked at the ECMWF shear map for the next 168 hours and wow! It is really looking bad for this thing. I totally missed that when thinking this would develop and be a player. Unless all of these models are off the mark, there is shear city out there waiting for this thing. I would post the links to these maps but they are on a proprietary site with a password. I have my doubts now unless something unexpected happens. Could be a short upgrade like Ingrid in 2007- remember THAT one. It was downright obscene to watch that poor puppy get killed by shear approaching Mach 1.

Its just the year of the shear...thats my new saying for anything and everything that develops...

[tpr1967]

Thats why the ECWF has this moving so far to the west in the long term basically keeps it a wave.

[Stormcenter]

I guess that's why "some" of the models don't show 94L becoming much.
I can't say I'm sad to read that bit of information. Thanks hurricanetrack.

I just looked at the ECMWF shear map for the next 168 hours and wow! It is really looking bad for this thing. I totally missed that when thinking this would develop and be a player. Unless all of these models are off the mark, there is shear city out there waiting for this thing. I would post the links to these maps but they are on a proprietary site with a password. I have my doubts now unless something unexpected happens. Could be a short upgrade like Ingrid in 2007- remember THAT one. It was downright obscene to watch that poor puppy get killed by shear approaching Mach 1.

[AtlanticWind]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Funny all this "Shear" coming up and look at the intesity forecasts.

['CaneFreak]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Funny all this "Shear" coming up and look at the intesity forecasts.

and so I take it you agree with these intensity forecasts despite the overwhelming evidence that shear will increase as this thing moves west?

[tailgater]

THe shear should stay about the same as long as it moves with the upper lows.. since they are just about moving in tandum right now..

I was just thinking the same thing and the mid and upper level portion of this storm seem to be developing nicely and with the convection it has now I would think the lower levels will start to fall in line shortly.

[wxman57]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

[AtlanticWind]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Funny all this "Shear" coming up and look at the intesity forecasts.

and so I take it you agree with these intensity forecasts despite the overwhelming evidence that shear will increase as this thing moves west?

These forecasts take in to account shear , at this point there are conflicting forecasts on how much shear 94l will encounter , lets wait and see , by the way Hwrf shows this as a major hurricane!

[tpr1967]

WXMAN could the LLC be redeveloping further east near the convection.

[jconsor]

One would think that convective burst would eventually cause pressures to lower and the circulation to tighten up, but this system seems to be perpetually stretched NE to SW.

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.