EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[pepeavilenho]

I just saw model plots on Weather Underground, and that HWRF has me very concerned. This model has Jimena making landfall near Los Mochis (south end of Gulf of California), than heading northward and stalling over southern Arizona. Again I ask, how reliable is this model? Should I be concerned about the possibility of flooding in Phoenix? Any answers would be very appreciated, so thanks in advance!

-Andrew92

It's not a bad model, but i usually use to beilieve in nhc about the trayectory.

[RattleMan]

I just saw model plots on Weather Underground, and that HWRF has me very concerned. This model has Jimena making landfall near Los Mochis (south end of Gulf of California), than heading northward and stalling over southern Arizona. Again I ask, how reliable is this model? Should I be concerned about the possibility of flooding in Phoenix? Any answers would be very appreciated, so thanks in advance!

-Andrew92

We need the rain after this weekend's Excessive Heat Warning (it reached 113 F here yesterday).

[Andrew92]

I just saw model plots on Weather Underground, and that HWRF has me very concerned. This model has Jimena making landfall near Los Mochis (south end of Gulf of California), than heading northward and stalling over southern Arizona. Again I ask, how reliable is this model? Should I be concerned about the possibility of flooding in Phoenix? Any answers would be very appreciated, so thanks in advance!

-Andrew92

We need the rain after this weekend's Excessive Heat Warning (it reached 113 F here yesterday).

That is true, and we haven't had much of a monsoon season so far, but we also do not need the remnants of a hurricane to stall nearby and give us flooding.

-Andrew92

[bob rulz]

I don't want the storm to stall but it would be nice if we could get some moisture up here in Utah from a dying tropical system. It happens on rare occasions.

[Aslkahuna]

Historically, storms making landfall near Los Mochis have had their remnants or weakening circulations track into SE AZ from Santa Cruz County east with most of them into SW NM. Since the heaviest rain from these systems tend to occur within 100 miles of the center track to the west and further to the east, the chances for seriously heavy rain in this instance would be small for Phoenix. Further up the coast north of Hermosillo would track the system into Pinal County and eastern Maricopa Counties bring heavy rain to PHX and TUS. However, as Octave showed in 1983, one doesn't need the storm itself to come anywhere near close to AZ to cause flooding rains there-same holds for UT where only the moisture is necessary along with enough dynamics from the trough shearing the storm apart. Best examples of a Los Mochis landfall are Newton 1986, (mostly into NM), Ismael 1995, Rain east of Tucson and heavy in NM, and Isis which sheared apart south of AZ with the LLCC tracking NW through AZ and did bring some rain to PHX in 1998.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Extremely tiny eye

[CrazyC83]

29/2345 UTC 15.4N 104.7W T5.0/5.0 JIMENA -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 13, 2009083000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1047W, 90, 970, HU

[Andrew92]

Good information Steve! We do need the rain, but hopefully if Jimena hits, we don't get too much from it.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

At the 8 AM advisory, the 12-hour position was put at 14.6 N, 104.4 W.

Per the FTP:

EP, 13, 2009083000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1047W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 15, 1009, 150, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JIMENA, D,


Does that seem quite a bit north to anyone? I dunno, I think this could be a big one for someone in Mexico if it keeps this far right of forecast.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300233
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300237
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...JIMENA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 580
MILES...935 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE
OF...THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...JIMENA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.8N 105.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Discussion to come.

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300241
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

WHILE THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY IS
NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...SSM/I DATA AT 0106 UTC SHOWS IT IS
STILL PRESENT UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE MICROWAVE DATA
ALSO SHOWED AN OUTER BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN OUTER EYEWALL. SINCE THE EYE IS
NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
HURRICANE IS STILL INTENSIFYING. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 90 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

JIMENA HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW 305/10. THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
27N111W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD AND PUSH THE WEAKENING LOW INTO THE PACIFIC...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW JIMENA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND HWRF
KEEP THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TURN
JIMENA NORTHWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS
AND THUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST JIMENA TO SHEAR APART IN THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN TO SUCH A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT MOTION THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE NEW TRACK IS
NEAR THE THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS...AS WELL AS
NEAR THE GFS DYNAMICAL MODEL.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 48 HR...AS JIMENA WILL BE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT IN 36 HR. IT
IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT JIMENA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...JIMENA WOULD REACH COOLER SSTS AFTER 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN. THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72 HR MAKE THE FORECAST MORE
PROBLEMATIC.

THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT CABO
CORRIENTES IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND IF THESE MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO
BE VERIFYING WATCHES OR WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT
TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN
BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.8N 105.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 106.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 108.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.5N 109.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 114.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 117.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Interesting discussion. If that eye pops out again, I think this thing could bomb out really quickly...

[Andrew92]

And for as poorly as some think the GFDL and HWRF are for Invest 94L, they're not doing too bad for Jimena so far. A lot of the other models did not see this hurricane turning northwest as fast as it has, but these two models did.

I'm not sure Jimena will make landfall where these models say it will, but those areas should watch the storm. I'm thinking Baja is more likely to get hit though, and I'm extremely concerned for residents and vacationers there, especially in Cabo San Lucas. If this hurricane intensifies as forecast and makes landfall, this could be a disaster for part of Mexico.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Eye could be coming back

If that eye can stay clear all night, we could be looking at a monster by morning...I would not be surprised to wake up to a Category 4 or 5...

[Macrocane]

Looking better than ever, if this trend continues a special advisory could be issued.

[Stormsfury]

Extremely tiny eye

I estimated the eye on last light visible imagery loop to be at time around 5 miles, a dreaded pinwheel eye. The last time I saw the pinwheel eye was of course, in Wilma, although I'm sure it has happened between Wilma and now (and I didn't see it). IMHO, Jimena is likely already stronger than the 105 mph advisory, and it's too bad no RECON missions are generally scheduled for EPAC systems. However, if Jimena is shown to become more of a threat, a RECON mission could be scheduled to fly. Jimena is a very small, compact 30 mile wide buzzsaw, and reminds me of ATL Hurricane Iris.

[masaji79]

Given their proximity and projected paths I wonder if Jimena and Kevin will start to interact?

[Chacor]

it's too bad no RECON missions are generally scheduled for EPAC systems.

Actually, recon into EPac systems is fairly common, especially for threats to Mexico. Usually get two or three such systems, at least, a year.

Given their proximity and projected paths I wonder if Jimena and Kevin will start to interact?

Kevin's forecast track is only such because the models have been strongly hinting at interaction with Jimena.

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 300859
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS REAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE TINY EYE HAS WARMED A
LITTLE AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THESE VERY
RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY YIELD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AROUND T5.5...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS JIMENA
WILL TRAVERSE VERY WARM SSTS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
JIMENA REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK IT COULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER.
ALTHOUGH...THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. ALL IN ALL...THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF JIMENA IN THE 3-5 DAY
TIME FRAME.

JIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 305/10. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
STEER JIMENA NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE UPPER-LOW STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPART A FASTER NORTHERN
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TAKING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE LOW
AND BUILD IN THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER....THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 105.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.9N 107.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.2N 108.9W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 111.9W 100 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 28.5N 115.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN