ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[Blown Away]

Well said expat2carib!




TPC not showing 91L's low anymore.

[Gustywind]

Let's back to the topic and calm down

[cycloneye]

First SSD T numbers for 91L.

05/2345 UTC 15.1N 47.6W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Blown Away]

Let's back to the topic and calm down

OMG, that is so funny! Remember this board is supposed to be fun and educational.

[msbee]

Ok,lets return to the topic of the thread.

I just get tired of the endless rooting for development by some on this board, regardless of the consequences of that development. You'll never see me pulling for something to develop. Sure, it might seem exciting to be threatened by a hurricane - until you're dealing with the aftermath of a direct hit. Members here like MGC probably don't look at hurricanes in the same way after Katrina. Believe me, you don't want to be hit by one.

Ok, that's it on the subject.

thanks wxman
I truly appreciate your comments

[Ivanhater]

This system is looking good tonight

[breeze]

LOL @ Gustywind! You are so good at finding those funny pictures!

[Emmett_Brown]

Can somebody post a shear map. Thanks.

The shear maps from Cimms seem to be down right now. This one isn't as good, but it might help. It is from the 12z GFS initialization.

[Gustywind]

LOL @ Gustywind! You are so good at finding those funny pictures!

Tkanks breeze you're always kind i appreciate your comments! Yeah i put some humor to relax a bit the
" convective" atmosphere. I hate conflicts, especially on a ... this wonderfull BOARD, please let's take it easy my friends! Just a lull and banggg a burst of heating words, or differents opinions! No no, let's joke a bit and stay cool

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best track

AL, 91, 2009100600, , BEST, 0, 148N, 474W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[jlauderdal]

we are going to try our luck with this angry beast instead of polar bears and grizzly, its been like pulling teeth getting anything going this year and this nasty thing is not happy at all

[expat2carib]

That's a nasty little beast that's watching. I rather have some of the other "bears watching"

[wxman57]

Just noticed that the buoy nearest to 91L is now reporting a SW wind, suggestive of an LLC. However, the pressure has been rising steadily at the buoy all day, from 1010mb earlier to 1014.7mb at 00Z. Could mean the low pressure center has just moved NW of the buoy. But if there was such a low center that close, then the pressure gradient would be producing stronger than 15kt wind at the buoy. Convective tops do seem to be warming - not a sign of strengthening.

[Emmett_Brown]

Whatever circulation there is, it seems to be moving more NW now.

[Dean4Storms]

I really don't think it looks all that good, needs much more deep sustained convection!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC TUE OCT 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20091006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091006 0000 091006 1200 091007 0000 091007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 47.4W 16.8N 50.9W 18.8N 53.9W 20.4N 56.5W
BAMD 14.8N 47.4W 16.3N 49.8W 18.1N 51.8W 19.9N 53.3W
BAMM 14.8N 47.4W 16.4N 50.0W 18.1N 52.3W 19.7N 54.2W
LBAR 14.8N 47.4W 16.8N 49.3W 19.1N 50.9W 21.1N 51.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091008 0000 091009 0000 091010 0000 091011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 58.6W 24.6N 60.5W 24.9N 56.6W 22.6N 53.3W
BAMD 21.6N 54.1W 22.8N 54.7W 19.4N 55.6W 16.8N 60.7W
BAMM 21.0N 55.6W 22.9N 58.0W 21.7N 59.5W 20.5N 63.0W
LBAR 22.9N 51.1W 24.8N 47.0W 26.8N 41.3W 29.6N 33.0W
SHIP 44KTS 36KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 44KTS 36KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 47.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 42.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

There is no NW movement, movement is WNW as it has been all day. The shear can easily make it look like NW or N movement.

Here is the 18Z zonal shear animation. This looks to me like shear really decreases as it gets under the ridge. What am I missing?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

This is what I call a monster ridge off to the NW of 91L. Look how those models bend sharply WSW, some even curl back east, like a wall is literally waiting for it.

[cycloneye]

There is no NW movement

Per 00:00 UTC models,its moving at 315 degrees.

[gatorcane]

This is an excellent loop to see what is happening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Here you will see a ULL to the north of 91L pulling out to the ENE. If you look off to the NW of 91L, you can see that mid-level ridge building SE (look at the orange NW of 91L pushing SE). I don't think this one is curving North out to sea the window is closing for that to happen. Look also at the Caribbean. Not much shear there anymore actually. Notice how the high-level clouds are only moving slowly NE. If you look back to the NW of 91L at the washed out frontal bound denoted by the cloud line from Florida out into the Altantic you can see the clouds bending SW, a sign the ridge is on the way SE and that shear may be the shear that gets to 91L. Not convinced its the strong shear the rips 91L though. Must be something else if the models dissipate it though.