WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[StormingB81]

[quote="Infdidoll"]Wow...After days of speculation, we've got something to talk about now. Time to buy some chips and salsa, beer, and watch this thing blossom. Maybe that sounds a little casual, but with all the activity going on here the past 3 months, typhoon-watching is starting to become the weekly thing for me. I live a sad existence.


Is there going to be Queso dip as well?...lol..Like you said though there has been to much destruction this etar between PI and Vietnam that I think we jus tcall it a season and move on.

[metenthusiast]

I re-scheduled my dialysis treatment in fear of Lupit. Now, with TD 22W on the run and my dialysis is set on Saturday, the 31st, I'm on the edge of my seat again. Waiting and monitoring for things to happen because if this storm pushes through with its forecast track, my treatment might again be in danger of being canceled. (by the way, why the hell does these things always seem to arrive on my dialysis schedules? )

[Infdidoll]

I re-scheduled my dialysis treatment in fear of Lupit. Now, with TD 22W on the run and my dialysis is set on Saturday, the 31st, I'm on the edge of my seat again. Waiting and monitoring for things to happen because if this storm pushes through with its forecast track, my treatment might again be in danger of being canceled. (by the way, why the hell does these things always seem to arrive on my dialysis schedules? )

Not quite as serious, but they always seem to come when my husband is out of town, too. Being that he's on an extended trip to visit his father who is dying from lung cancer, that means there was just enough time for another one to hit. I was terrified when Melor came through...but think I'm getting used to this and am trying to learn to save the fear for when there is a forecast showing us directly being hit. The only other way to work through my nerves is usually through humor.

In your case, I can't imagine what this must be like! Worrying about the effects of a storm are enough - but worrying about the necessity of dialysis, too? You, my friend, have it rough. I'd watch this carefully and see if they will be able to accommodate you earlier again.

[metenthusiast]

I re-scheduled my dialysis treatment in fear of Lupit. Now, with TD 22W on the run and my dialysis is set on Saturday, the 31st, I'm on the edge of my seat again. Waiting and monitoring for things to happen because if this storm pushes through with its forecast track, my treatment might again be in danger of being canceled. (by the way, why the hell does these things always seem to arrive on my dialysis schedules? )

Not quite as serious, but they always seem to come when my husband is out of town, too. Being that he's on an extended trip to visit his father who is dying from lung cancer, that means there was just enough time for another one to hit. I was terrified when Melor came through...but think I'm getting used to this and am trying to learn to save the fear for when there is a forecast showing us directly being hit. The only other way to work through my nerves is usually through humor.

In your case, I can't imagine what this must be like! Worrying about the effects of a storm are enough - but worrying about the necessity of dialysis, too? You, my friend, have it rough. I'd watch this carefully and see if they will be able to accommodate you earlier again.

Thanks! I am closely monitoring this one so I could prepare in advance (re-schedule again if necessary).

[oaba09]

I re-scheduled my dialysis treatment in fear of Lupit. Now, with TD 22W on the run and my dialysis is set on Saturday, the 31st, I'm on the edge of my seat again. Waiting and monitoring for things to happen because if this storm pushes through with its forecast track, my treatment might again be in danger of being canceled. (by the way, why the hell does these things always seem to arrive on my dialysis schedules? )

I guess you should re-schedule it again...As I always say...better safe than sorry ....

[Infdidoll]

Wow...After days of speculation, we've got something to talk about now. Time to buy some chips and salsa, beer, and watch this thing blossom. Maybe that sounds a little casual, but with all the activity going on here the past 3 months, typhoon-watching is starting to become the weekly thing for me. I live a sad existence.

Is there going to be Queso dip as well?...lol..Like you said though there has been to much destruction this etar between PI and Vietnam that I think we jus tcall it a season and move on.

Yes! What would typhoon-watching be without the Queso?! Have you seen the video of the Marine vs. the typhoon on YouTube? Part 1 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m85UdspO0Ro , Part II - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIAVtrNWWNo , Part III - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ868NKDABw

Good comic relief to relieve approaching-typhoon nerves and also some pretty cool video of Man-Yi.

[StormingB81]

Leave it to Marines to be all wild and crazy (Stupid) in a Tphoon

[JTE50]

Tropical Storm Watch issued for Guam to Saipan at 4pm local time:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 385 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

[P.K.]

SAB at T1.5, JTWC up to T2.0 and nothing from the JMA yet.

[oaba09]

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.5N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.7N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.4N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 149.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS
CONSOLIDATING TOWARDS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO OVERCAST DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE
MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE THAT IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK
FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER. EGRR IS LEFT OF THE PACK
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

[oaba09]

[dexterlabio]

what a scary track for tropical storm 23W... hey, is this track really possible as of now? it seems that they are considering the subtropical ridge to be strong enough to track this system westwards for a couple of days.

BTW this is the latest satfix bulletin from JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 260906

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (E OF GUAM)

B. 26/0830Z

C. 12.8N

D. 149.3E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. FIX REPOSITIONED TO SOUTHWEST DUE
TO MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRY IMAGERY INDICATING LLCC SOUTH OF
THE CNVCTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0319Z 12.8N 150.1E MMHS
26/0330Z 13.2N 150.2E MMHS
26/0342Z 12.9N 149.9E AMSR


UEHARA

so it's right that i called it a tropical storm. they just upgraded the system and relocated its center to the southwest, meaning a lower lattitude. oh scary again O_O if this forecast track continues and the forecast intensity becomes greater, then i'm gonna have the most terifying halloween in my entire life, and so with my fellow residents of manila.

[oaba09]

what a scary track for tropical storm 23W... hey, is this track really possible as of now? it seems that they are considering the subtropical ridge to be strong enough to track this system westwards for a couple of days.

BTW this is the latest satfix bulletin from JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 260906

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (E OF GUAM)

B. 26/0830Z

C. 12.8N

D. 149.3E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. FIX REPOSITIONED TO SOUTHWEST DUE
TO MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRY IMAGERY INDICATING LLCC SOUTH OF
THE CNVCTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0319Z 12.8N 150.1E MMHS
26/0330Z 13.2N 150.2E MMHS
26/0342Z 12.9N 149.9E AMSR


UEHARA

so it's right that i called it a tropical storm. they just upgraded the system and relocated its center to the southwest, meaning a lower lattitude. oh scary again O_O if this forecast track continues and the forecast intensity becomes greater, then i'm gonna have the most terifying halloween in my entire life, and so with my fellow residents of manila.

Scary thought huh...I think some forecasters are saying that this will be a cat 3 when it hits...

[oaba09]

Still waiting for the JMA warning

[jumperitis]

christ...if the forecasts hold, it'll be a direct hit on the metropolis!

[oaba09]

[dexterlabio]

^ or higher. i dunno but their initial forecast intensity always changes and becomes higher... and so with the FORECAST TRACK. i wouldn't be surprised if the initial forecast track shifts again to the north. i will check on the euro models later.

and yeah, this is scary, like what most of us feels every halloween O_O come on, how can we visit our departed loved ones in the cemetery with all the heavy rains and strong winds? trick or treat...

[oaba09]

^ or higher. i dunno but their initial forecast intensity always changes and becomes higher... and so with the FORECAST TRACK. i wouldn't be surprised if the initial forecast track shifts again to the north. i will check on the euro models later.

and yeah, this is scary, like what most of us feels every halloween O_O come on, how can we visit our departed loved ones in the cemetery with all the heavy rains and strong winds? trick or treat...

I don't know...I'm looking at recent satellite loops right now and the movement seems to be consistent w/ JTWC..

[KWT]

Looks like its wrapping its convection now, the models certainly are pretty worrying it has to be said.