ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[wxman57]

WXMAN could the LLC be redeveloping further east near the convection.

That's what would happen if the convection persists.

Oh, and HWRF says it's a 37kt TS already, so its intensity forecast is suspect. The GFDL never did well forecasting shear, and the HWRF hasn't proven itself to be superior to the GFDL yet.

[Stormcenter]

But it's not even an organized (TD or better) system to begin with.
It won't take much to knock it out. I guess will just wait and see what happens.

quote="Evil Jeremy"]

If it does develop today then it should be torn apart tomorrow then based on that thinking. Perhaps this will never be upgraded since it looks like there is enough shear to reduce this to a pile of ashes and then those ashes get blown around by even more shear. This would explain very well why the global models don't "see" this. It won't be there to see apparently. Oh well, it was interesting while it lasted. I suspect that the next TWO would mention the unfavorable upper level winds ahead and am not sure why the last one did not.

You make it sound like this system is already dead. Anything can happen in the tropics, and I don't think this system will simply fall apart.[/quote]

[Sanibel]

Synoptic elongation from NNW.


Shear from west.


2009 continues to hamper storms.


Forward track still has dangerous potential.

[carolina_73]

You think maybe shear to the W of 94L is being caused by its upper level anticyclone interacting with the
ULL

[Evil Jeremy]

But it's not even an organized (TD or better) system to begin with.
It won't take much to knock it out. I guess will just wait and see what happens.

quote="Evil Jeremy"]

If it does develop today then it should be torn apart tomorrow then based on that thinking. Perhaps this will never be upgraded since it looks like there is enough shear to reduce this to a pile of ashes and then those ashes get blown around by even more shear. This would explain very well why the global models don't "see" this. It won't be there to see apparently. Oh well, it was interesting while it lasted. I suspect that the next TWO would mention the unfavorable upper level winds ahead and am not sure why the last one did not.

You make it sound like this system is already dead. Anything can happen in the tropics, and I don't think this system will simply fall apart.

[/quote]

Stranger things have happened. I dont think this is said enough, but anything can truly happen in the tropics, and even the improbable is still possible. Yes the shear can knock it out, but systems have survived strong shear this year. Ana is one example.

[otowntiger]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

This has been a very wishy washy pitiful little thing so far. I wish it'd go ahead and die or develop, one of the two. I have written it off several times only to see it prove me wrong but then just as it looks like it may do something, it whimps out again.

[otowntiger]

Stranger things have happened. I dont think this is said enough, but anything can truly happen in the tropics, and even the improbable is still possible. Yes the shear can knock it out, but systems have survived strong shear this year. Ana is one example

I didn't think she actually survived.

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, is it me. At 10 am this thing looks better than Danny ever did, and it's still not even considered a td.

At least I do get from the conversation that this probably won't be a threat to us.

And, it will be past Labor Day for conus threat.

[Evil Jeremy]

Stranger things have happened. I dont think this is said enough, but anything can truly happen in the tropics, and even the improbable is still possible. Yes the shear can knock it out, but systems have survived strong shear this year. Ana is one example

I didn't think she actually survived.

She was striped of all her convection and the NHC shut her down, but she did not stop fighting and regained convection and became a classified system again, and even as a classified system she fought shear.

[Stormcenter]

Ana 2009=R.I.P.

Stranger things have happened. I dont think this is said enough, but anything can truly happen in the tropics, and even the improbable is still possible. Yes the shear can knock it out, but systems have survived strong shear this year. Ana is one example

I didn't think she actually survived.

[tpr1967]

If it gets named, could it be Danny II.Look wise that is.

[Dean4Storms]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

It could be a broad LLC and the buoy is actually now to the east of the actual center. I don't think they have nailed down the exact position of the center or how large it is if one even exists like you point out!

[KWT]

Its clearly being sheared, I'm not sure why the models are keen on strengthening it but they are clearly not latching onto the ULL as Derek has mentioned...whilst the global models seem to be showing it well which makes it even more odd why the hurricane models are still strengthening this.

[vbhoutex]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

It could be a broad LLC and the buoy is actually now to the east of the actual center. I don't think they have nailed down the exact position of the center or how large it is if one even exists like you point out!

Although I am no expert looking at the sat loops reveals an elongated E-W center to me. I definitely don't see a strong candidate for a LLCC at this time. Convection could change all of that with it firing like it is.

[KWT]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

This reminds me a lot of pre-Fay when it was in this location, it had very good convection but not really a solid LLC and eventually it weakened again, I suspect the reason it blows up then falls apart again is because of a lack of any decent strength LLC.

[Derek Ortt]

no NW winds absed upon visible satellite. We have the SW through NE

[AtlanticWind]

This is just a wave?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

[Derek Ortt]

Its clearly being sheared, I'm not sure why the models are keen on strengthening it but they are clearly not latching onto the ULL as Derek has mentioned...whilst the global models seem to be showing it well which makes it even more odd why the hurricane models are still strengthening this.

its because the hurricane models run off of Good For you know what

[KWT]

To be fair though Derek it the model has shown very high shear near this system for quite some runs so its something wrong with just the hurricane models, the GFS doesn't do anything with this system as well downstream due to the shear levels (its had constantly 20-30kts in this region from this time through till about Friday.

[Aric Dunn]

Still has multiple vorts in there and the overall broad center is still elongated NE - SW