ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

uh, no! The Euro has been as atrocious as Phil Mickelson's putting at the PGA Championship

when I TAed, if a student would have got an answer right by such incorrect methods as the EURO may end up doing, I'd have taken off nearly all points on the question

Derek has me on ignore, but most everyone else can see this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2008.pdf

Table 4.

Interesting read, thanks for sharing. We have been discussing the Euro here today related to short term (24 hr) verification, and it has had difficulties with the formative hours of Bill. It was too slow with Bill's motion today, and was almost 200 miles off in just the last 24 hours.

[Brent]

[Bocadude85]

Looks to be heading out to sea

[gatorcane]

Looks to be heading out to sea

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yep, in fact if trends continue it will recurve well east of the Bahamas and probably like 400-500 miles east of FL at least. I'm thinking no Florida threat for Bill, although it looked like maybe it could be 24 hours ago. Ana won't be a threat either. As far as I'm concerned I see no FL threats for the forseeable future. Good night.

[Brent]

Fish sticks.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS FINALLY matches the ECMWF scenario of the first trough getting the system

This does decrease the threat to land areas, except Bermuda and Atlantic Canada

[Brent]

Goodbye.

[Stormcenter]

An everyone thought the ECMWF was on crack when it was the only model that
showed the curve. You know who you are.

[Derek Ortt]

it still has to CURVE. But I will say the chances of a Carib hit are dwindling at the present time

[HouTXmetro]

With Ana out front I still don't understand how people thought this would not re-curve to begin with. Granted there is time for the situation to change, but the logic behind it keeping W/WNW was insufficient.

[lebron23]

i still don't think it will recurve.

[jinftl]

The thinking was that Ana would remain small enough/weak enough so as to not effect the movment of Bill. Not sure I would say that there was overall consensus on any one outcome on the board...most folks too a 'wait and see' attitude.

Model runs far out in time always have to be understood for what they are and what they all contain....margins of error that increase with time. I wouldn't put tonight's model runs as etched in stone any more than i would have put last night's.

With Ana out front I still don't understand how people thought this would not re-curve to begin with. Granted there is time for the situation to change, but the logic behind it keeping W/WNW was insufficient.

[lebron23]

The thinking was that Ana would remain small enough/weak enough so as to not effect the movment of Bill. Not sure I would say that there was overall consensus on any one outcome on the board...most folks too a 'wait and see' attitude.

Model runs far out in time always have to be understood for what they are and what they all contain....margins of error that increase with time. I wouldn't put tonight's model runs as etched in stone any more than i would have put last night's.

With Ana out front I still don't understand how people thought this would not re-curve to begin with. Granted there is time for the situation to change, but the logic behind it keeping W/WNW was insufficient.

that's exactly why bill's cone goes just to the south of PR.

[jinftl]

Right....even if there is a recurve in his future, it could certainly make a difference to some areas if the curve is later rather than earlier. Not seen any stats that model runs that show a recuver 96 hours out are any more accurate than model runs showing a west/wnw motion 96 hours out!

The thinking was that Ana would remain small enough/weak enough so as to not effect the movment of Bill. Not sure I would say that there was overall consensus on any one outcome on the board...most folks too a 'wait and see' attitude.

Model runs far out in time always have to be understood for what they are and what they all contain....margins of error that increase with time. I wouldn't put tonight's model runs as etched in stone any more than i would have put last night's.

With Ana out front I still don't understand how people thought this would not re-curve to begin with. Granted there is time for the situation to change, but the logic behind it keeping W/WNW was insufficient.

that's exactly why bill's cone goes just to the south of PR.

[lebron23]

when do the models have the curve starting?

[jinftl]

none show a sharp turn...rather varying degrees of a 'soft curve'....west to wnw....to nw over time. The timing of that will be key and small changes in heading can mean alot in terms of what happens...or doesn't...in the northern islands.

Almost none show a west heading after 24 hours....something to watch for...

when do the models have the curve starting?

[MWatkins]

UKMET isn't "giving up the ghost" yet...still shows a position well west of the other models.

TROPICAL STORM BILL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 35.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.4W MODERATE
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.4N 39.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.9N 45.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.7N 48.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.4N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 15.1N 54.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 58.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 17.0N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2009 17.8N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2009 18.5N 67.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 19.3N 69.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2009 20.5N 72.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Rainband]

looks to recurve at this time. great news for the islands and the US

[Brent]

when do the models have the curve starting?

It will start later today. It's supposed to gain .8 degrees in latitude between 8am and 8pm tonight.

It's at 11.3 N now(drops to 11.2 at 8am), at 8pm tonight it's supposed to be at 12.0 N per the 11pm track. We're going to know pretty quickly but I'm feeling more and more like it's going to recurve. Too much model agreement.

[KWT]

Well looks like at this moment the lone hunter in the ECM is going to be right at the moment, thats why it was the best model is 2008 as well...