ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[hurricanetrack]

No:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071915.GIF

Great loop

[ozonepete]

Great, so does anybody see a LLC?

I don't. I see a mess again. Looks like it did northeast of Puerto Rico.

[leanne_uk]

i am curious now as to what happens next as the latest sat loops look bad for fred. As ozonepete said it looks like a mess

[xironman]

LLC is too strong a term, I see general cyclonic turning around about here

[Aric Dunn]

Great, so does anybody see a LLC?

I don't. I see a mess again. Looks like it did northeast of Puerto Rico.

Well I see two separate swirls one dissipating and the other taking over .. will tighten up as it has the last 3 times over its track across the atlantic.. not sure. there is still a decent size area of vorticity and the wind field is still closed I have a dumb feeling once the trough completely lifts out the circ will be feeling instead of the influences of the ridge to its east and the trough stretching north south, the ridge sliding off the east coast and building will due to conservation of angular momentum the vortex will probably become more circular and possibly tighten up how much is a good question ( if at all ) but again from a physics stand point such a thing happens all the time in the tropics. its sort of hard to picture but the circulation is rotating in one direction while the ridge and the trough are trying to pull it the other direction thus transfer of momentum from the circ to the other features is happening but as the trough pulls out the ridge building down may help as the flow around that ridge will be in the direction of the circulation( counterclockwise) is rotating thus transferring energy back to the circulation. we such things take place also in fluid dynamics which is what the atmosphere is anyway .. but will see
Dont hold me to this !!

[Aric Dunn]

I do have one prediction.. lol once the sun goes down.. a lot of people are going to say there is no llc or anything and its dead .. but please don't start that tell visible comes back as no matter how good you are at analyzing infrared and shortwave you will not be able to tell exactly where if any a llc of such size is at unless its completely naked.. especially with the cloud debris. one more prediction it takes along time for a vorticity to disperse so at the least the vorticity WILL be around for a couple days yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Dude, seriously? I was ready to put this thing behind me....come on!

I know how you feel.. but i also know you came back to check just in case..

[Blown Away]

LLC is too strong a term, I see general cyclonic turning around about here

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071915.GIF

Watch the loop until your eyes look like this , I believe there is a vorticy further S of your point along the NW side of the convection blob that is building.

[xironman]

Watch the loop until your eyes look like this , I believe there is a vorticity further S of your point along the NW side of the convection blob that is building.

Could be, right now it is so diffuse that it is hard to tell. If that convection persists I would not be surprised if that is where the llc locates in the end.

[ozonepete]

Great, so does anybody see a LLC?

I don't. I see a mess again. Looks like it did northeast of Puerto Rico.

Well I see two separate swirls one dissipating and the other taking over .. will tighten up as it has the last 3 times over its track across the atlantic.. not sure. there is still a decent size area of vorticity and the wind field is still closed I have a dumb feeling once the trough completely lifts out the circ will be feeling instead of the influences of the ridge to its east and the trough stretching north south, the ridge sliding off the east coast and building will due to conservation of angular momentum the vortex will probably become more circular and possibly tighten up how much is a good question ( if at all ) but again from a physics stand point such a thing happens all the time in the tropics. its sort of hard to picture but the circulation is rotating in one direction while the ridge and the trough are trying to pull it the other direction thus transfer of momentum from the circ to the other features is happening but as the trough pulls out the ridge building down may help as the flow around that ridge will be in the direction of the circulation( counterclockwise) is rotating thus transferring energy back to the circulation. we such things take place also in fluid dynamics which is what the atmosphere is anyway .. but will see
Dont hold me to this !!

lol of course we will!

[ozonepete]

Watch the loop until your eyes look like this , I believe there is a vorticity further S of your point along the NW side of the convection blob that is building.

Could be, right now it is so diffuse that it is hard to tell. If that convection persists I would not be surprised if that is where the llc locates in the end.

That's what it looks like to me, too. But I'm so far past this that it's hard to look anymore.

[gatorcane]

popping again, just like last night. If the pop is permanent, then we can see some development here.

I also notice it is stationary still, that should give it more time over water should it develop -- question is which way does the cockroach start to move once it moves?

Fred is not dead.

[gatorcane]

I do have one prediction.. lol once the sun goes down.. a lot of people are going to say there is no llc or anything and its dead .. but please don't start that tell visible comes back as no matter how good you are at analyzing infrared and shortwave you will not be able to tell exactly where if any a llc of such size is at unless its completely naked.. especially with the cloud debris. one more prediction it takes along time for a vorticity to disperse so at the least the vorticity WILL be around for a couple days yet.

I think we'll see a large blow-up of convection tonight again, and I'm a bit surprised we are seeing blow-up during the peak of diurnal minimum. There is also a noticable twist still in the low-levels. I think ex-Fred has more tricks left. Shear will keep decreasing from here on out based on CIMSS shear tendency charts.

Use this link and you will see the very distinct low-level twist here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[gatorcane]

well this link was working, guess the site went down again

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes you can see the low level turning very clearly. Nice link there.

[Aric Dunn]

I do have one prediction.. lol once the sun goes down.. a lot of people are going to say there is no llc or anything and its dead .. but please don't start that tell visible comes back as no matter how good you are at analyzing infrared and shortwave you will not be able to tell exactly where if any a llc of such size is at unless its completely naked.. especially with the cloud debris. one more prediction it takes along time for a vorticity to disperse so at the least the vorticity WILL be around for a couple days yet.

I think we'll see a large blow-up of convection tonight again, and I'm a bit surprised we are seeing blow-up during the peak of diurnal minimum. There is also a noticable twist still in the low-levels. I think ex-Fred has more tricks left. Shear will keep decreasing from here on out based on CIMSS shear tendency charts.

Use this link and you will see the very distinct low-level twist here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

right well I believe that our circulation will grow here shortly.. its is less elongated then this morning and should continue to become more circular for the reason i mentioned in my long rambling post A motion west wsw should occur here very shortly.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we got an elongated SSW to NNE trough with a MLC at the southern end where the deep convective blob keeps refiring, if the convection sustains he organizes and if not it remains just as it is.....a trough.

[Aric Dunn]

low level convergence is way up from earlier.. which is good for it..

[jaxfladude]

.............and it continues........................and it continues........................and it continues........................and it continues...........