ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Nantucket]

Thanks

[Okibeach]

Partial of Wilm. Disc.


FXUS62 KILM 270122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
922 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

TROPICAL STORM DANNY WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL OPEN UP INTO
A TROF AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
5H FLOW WILL ADVECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA THU NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TURN THE TRACK OF DANNY
MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF DANNY...BUT THE POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM DRY MILD DAY TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I believe I'm seeing a new center under the convection.

[wxman57]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

I believe I'm seeing a new center under the convection.

Certainly possible. That's what I'd expect to occur. Can't tell for sure without recon. Any recon tonight?

[Aric Dunn]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

I believe I'm seeing a new center under the convection.

Certainly possible. That's what I'd expect to occur. Can't tell for sure without recon. Any recon tonight?

yes they found two vorts .. one exposed .. and one still in the same spot as earlier..

['CaneFreak]

Partial of Wilm. Disc.


FXUS62 KILM 270122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
922 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

TROPICAL STORM DANNY WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL OPEN UP INTO
A TROF AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
5H FLOW WILL ADVECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA THU NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TURN THE TRACK OF DANNY
MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF DANNY...BUT THE POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM DRY MILD DAY TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

OK...this is beginning to piss me off...does anyone see this thing weakening and opening up into a trof...NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...so why does everyone keep saying that it is opening up into a trof??? GRRRRRR.....Sorry...I have anger management problems and I need to vent my frustration sometimes...no one take offense to this please...

[Air Force Met]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

I believe I'm seeing a new center under the convection.

Certainly possible. That's what I'd expect to occur. Can't tell for sure without recon. Any recon tonight?

Yes...and there is another center near 26.5 70.5 of about 1008 mb. West winds all throughout the convection.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106337&start=300

[fox13weather]

I know it's is still days away....But, what do people think we can expect on Nantucket in this point in time?....Bill was a joke.

Somewhere between 20-30 mph and 60-70 mph, depending on its structure, intensity, and track. Really, impossible to be confident in a wind forecast when it's struggling to survive. I think it'll be quite sheared as it passes, with most strong winds well east of the center.

Storms passing east of the Cape have minimal impact. New England is storm hardy. The biggest mistake meteorologists make is overplaying the impacts of storms that stay east. (unless it is a winter storm that sits off the Cape and becomes vertically stacked in the atmosphere)

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 135NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.8N 72.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 74.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 49.0N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 53.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...BUT STILL DISORGANIZED...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES...595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 675 MILES...1090
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

AFTER THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LEFT DANNY EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT A
NEW LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS FORMING FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS DISTORTED AND
LIKELY CONSISTS OF A BROAD CENTER WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. NONETHELESS...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION THIS EVENING DID RELAY SOME
RELIABLE SFMR DATA WHICH SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR
45 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE FROM THIS FLIGHT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 1006 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/9...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE REFORMING. THE FORECAST
TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT IS
STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THEREAFTER...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
PARALLELING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. IT SHOULD STILL BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WOULD BRING DANNY
CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DANNY...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHY THEY MAKE THE CYCLONE SO STRONG. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 40 KT...AND MUCH MORE...ONCE DANNY ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS MYSTERIOUSLY SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 70-75 KT ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES.
SINCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY REALISTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIMITS THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
KEEPS DANNY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS AND FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT
DANNY COULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT IS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 26.0N 71.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 72.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 30.0N 74.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 32.8N 74.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 69.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 49.0N 58.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0000Z 53.5N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[btangy]

8/27/09 00Z NAM: Initialization of the NAM looks a bit too moist on the W semicircle and is showing poor continuity at upper levels with handling of upper level lows and shear axis just to the W Danny. Hence, the NAM can't be trusted with the details of Danny itself. In fact, it really has the upper level flow becoming highly divergent over Bill in 12 hours... something that gradually occurring but not as fast as the NAM. As a result, the NAM is probably showing too fast of an increase in organization in the short term.

As for the upper level low near the Gulf, NAM isn't quite as deep with the low. According to HPC it was a strong outlier compared to other models so it's gravitating toward the model consensus in the latest run. On the contrary, it is a bit faster with the shortwave energy dropping out of the N Plains and remains on the fast, deeper side of the 15Z SREF ensemble spread. As the NAM ejects the upper level low near the GOM ahead of the shortwave, it spawns a surface wave separate from Danny instead of amplifying Danny itself which earlier runs showed. Just looks very strange and I don't trust the details.

[Brent]

[MGC]

ULL over Louisiana appears to be cut off. The trough coming down is hard to pick out on WV and it appears to be much weaker than last weeks trough that directed Bill NE. When the ULL kicks out is a good question. If it is still over Louisiana tomorrow then I would speculate that Danny's track might be shifted a bit west. Looks like Danny might be under a better upper level enviroment tomorrow so convection could become better organized near the circulation center. Does look like Danny is a mess tonight though.......MGC

['CaneFreak]

ULL over Louisiana appears to be cut off. The trough coming down is hard to pick out on WV and it appears to be much weaker than last weeks trough that directed Bill NE. When the ULL kicks out is a good question. If it is still over Louisiana tomorrow then I would speculate that Danny's track might be shifted a bit west. Looks like Danny might be under a better upper level enviroment tomorrow so convection could become better organized near the circulation center. Does look like Danny is a mess tonight though.......MGC

Ok...so maybe I am not on crack...thanks...

[brunota2003]

It looks to me like it is very, very, very, very slowly drifting just a hair east of south.

[wxman57]

Storms passing east of the Cape have minimal impact. New England is storm hardy. The biggest mistake meteorologists make is overplaying the impacts of storms that stay east. (unless it is a winter storm that sits off the Cape and becomes vertically stacked in the atmosphere)

Particularly sheared storms transitioning to extratropical. Winds on the right side may be 30-40 mph higher than on the left side of the track.

[Macrocane]

Am I the only one that thinks Danny has improved it's appearence? The convection is stronger than earlier today and closer to the center (or at least one of the centers). I guess that if it has more than one LLC then there will be a dominant and the other will dissipiate and Danny will start to intensify.

['CaneFreak]

8/26/09 00Z NAM: Initialization of the NAM looks a bit too moist on the W semicircle and is showing poor continuity at upper levels with handling of upper level lows and shear axis just to the W Danny. Hence, the NAM can't be trusted with the details of Danny itself. In fact, it really has the upper level flow becoming highly divergent over Bill in 12 hours... something that gradually occurring but not as fast as the NAM. As a result, the NAM is probably showing too fast of an increase in organization in the short term.

As for the upper level low near the Gulf, NAM isn't quite as deep with the low. According to HPC it was a strong outlier compared to other models so it's gravitating toward the model consensus in the latest run. On the contrary, it is a bit faster with the shortwave energy dropping out of the N Plains and remains on the fast, deeper side of the 15Z SREF ensemble spread. As the NAM ejects the upper level low near the GOM ahead of the shortwave, it spawns a surface wave separate from Danny instead of amplifying Danny itself which earlier runs showed. Just looks very strange and I don't trust the details.

The new title of this thread should be "models on crack cocaine"

[massweathernet]

Code: Select all

http://twitter.com/klemanowicz/statuses/3571017273

New forecast track on the way from FOX25.. Oh jeez.

[shortwave]

nice ir2
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
llc draggin the mid like an exhausted parent at disney.

[vbhoutex]

nice ir2
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
llc draggin the mid like an exhausted parent at disney.

Good analysis!!!ROFL!!!