ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

My only worry is the fact that whilst Ana is much weaker its not gaining any latitude at all. The weakness and change in the upper high should bve starting to at least slightly lift Ana up, even if its only a weak reflection but thus far, utterly nothing.

Anyway with models in such good agreement now the biggest risk zone now Bermuda and Newfoundland IMO...can't rule out the NE US either because the models may be overly progressive.

[Gustywind]

My only worry is the fact that whilst Ana is much weaker its not gaining any latitude at all. The weakness and change in the upper high should bve starting to at least slightly lift Ana up, even if its only a weak reflection but thus far, utterly nothing.

Anyway with models in such good agreement now the biggest risk zone now Bermuda and Newfoundland IMO...can't rule out the NE US either because the models may be overly progressive.

Interresting thing to focus KWT, as Ana is always racing west given the latest TWD
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161137
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA RACING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 470
MILES...755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 54.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Blown Away]

I've been sitting here wondering the same thing! I think today will be the day to build more confidence in the recurve prediction!

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
I've been sitting here wondering the same thing! I think today will be the day to build more confidence in the recurve prediction!

Oh yeah, that's pretty worrying for us in the islands, our Pro Met (Meteo-France) this morning says that Bill could be a serious candidate crossing Guadeloupe or just near the Leewards as a Hurricane.
Hope fairly a strong recurve of Bill...

[KWT]

The thing to remember mind you is Bill will be much stronger and bigger so its going to feel any weakness far stronger then Ana ever will likely do, esp if its a major hurricane by that time.

Given the models though its hard to go against the idea of a recurve, todays that got to be the most likely option.

[keneth]

Coma shape looking.IMO it looks like a 50kt storm now.

It looks like T3.5 by just appraisal

[KWT]

All depends on exactly where the center is, if its right over the center then I'd go for 50-55kts but it may be a touch to the south of the convection thats wrapping round.

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 16, 2009 7:29 am ET
ATLANTIC

Tropical Storm Bill became the 2nd named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, forming in the Eastern Atlantic east of Tropical Storm Ana. Bill is currently located about 1640 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has top sustained winds near 45 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Bill is forecast to move westward through the open tropical Atlantic over the next few days, steadily gaining strength and becoming a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday as it also heads toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Bill is forecast to be the much stronger tropical system so all in the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and then Southeast United States will want to monitor and check back frequently on the latest on Bill.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[wx247]

Looks as if on the floater that Bill is passing the forecast point to the north. Definitely a jump more WNW in the last while.

[Thunder44]

ADT gives it a T# of 3.3:

Code: Select all

            UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  16 AUG 2009    Time :   114500 UTC
      Lat :   11:27:30 N     Lon :   37:47:38 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt
     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                3.3     3.2     3.2

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp :  -1.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -44.9C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (0.14^ TO DG)

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt03L.html

[KWT]

Yeah thats not all that shocking, though they have it still rather far south at 11.3, which doesn't make sense given the way its wrapping up, even if its on the southern side of the convection its not likely to be below 11.7N IMO.

[shah8]

I think 11.3 is about right. The storm is slingshotting some of that convection.

I think the bigger worry to be cautious about is that the recurve is still a somewhat fragile idea. It should miss the islands, but the global models do hint at a possibility that it could go back west later in the forcast.

[tolakram]

That dry air that I think is getting entrained has really put the kibosh on convection.

[ronjon]

Boy gotta hand it to the Euro if Bill recurves north in the western atlantic - this model sniffed out this solution 4 to 5 days ago and has been consistent the whole way. I can see why HPC puts so much faith in the long range predictions using the ECM. Really shouldn't doubt this model in the long term as it consistently outperforms the GFS.

[cyclonic chronic]

wow. dont think ive seen this get so deep it goes off the page!!

[KWT]

Yeah big jump to the WNW in the last few hours based on the new position of 12.2N...pretty much seals the deal IMO.

Also fair play to the ECM, its nailed it!

Structure is improving but convection seems to be having a hard time somewhat.

[rrm]

arent some of the models showing a bend back to the west

[jrpsuper123]

AL, 03, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 119N, 377W, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 60, 90,
AL, 03, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 119N, 377W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 70, 55, 55, 55,

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track=50kts

AL, 03, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 119N, 377W, 50, 997, TS, 50

Code: Select all

      BILL, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2009, TS, S, 2009081306, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL032009
AL, 03, 2009081206,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  185W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081212,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  194W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081218,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  203W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081300,   , BEST,   0, 114N,  211W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081306,   , BEST,   0, 115N,  219W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  20,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081312,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  225W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081318,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  232W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081400,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  240W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081406,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  251W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081412,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  272W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081418,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  292W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081500,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  307W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081506,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  320W,  30, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081512,   , BEST,   0, 115N,  333W,  30, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  45,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081518,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  345W,  35, 1004, TS,  34, NEQ,   25,   25,    0,   25, 1011,  200,  25,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,       BILL, M,
AL, 03, 2009081600,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  355W,  35, 1004, TS,  34, NEQ,   25,   25,    0,   25, 1011,  200,  25,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,       BILL, M, 12, NEQ,  25,  25,   0,  25
AL, 03, 2009081606,   , BEST,   0, 115N,  365W,  40, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,   60,   25,    0,   25, 1011,  200,  25,  50,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,       BILL, M,
AL, 03, 2009081612,   , BEST,   0, 119N,  377W,  50,  997, TS,  34, NEQ,  120,  120,   60,   90,
AL, 03, 2009081612,   , BEST,   0, 119N,  377W,  50,  997, TS,  50, NEQ,   70,   55,   55,   55,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[tolakram]

Don't forget about the model discussion thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106157&start=640