ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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gatorcane
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Re:

#1481 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:20 am

gatorcane wrote:models are diverging at this point. Seems that the CMC and MM5 models recurve it out to sea. But the GFDL/ECMWF/NOGAPS models move it towards the SE Bahamas as a somewhat weaker entity and maybe into Florida. The difference lies partly in how strong they make 94L but how they handle the potential for a High pressure system to move off the Eastern CONUS into the Western Atlantic in the long-range. The latter models think a Bermuda High will builds while the former think that it will not. The long-term future of this invest and whether it impacts the CONUS is still uncertain. I would have to lean towards a recurve but if I did, that would be going with the percentages as most systems do recurve anyway.


Well the 12Z GFS is now in the GFDL/ECMWF/NOGAPS camp bringing this into the Bahamas, albeit not as a hurricane though but some kind of low pressure.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Re:

#1482 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:20 am

x-y-no wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Is it me, or is the GFS running slowly this afternoon? It has been about 45 minutes since it should of started I think, and it is only up to 42 hours.


I've noticed this a lot this year - in the past it would dribble out two or three frames at a time - now it seems to come in big chunks. So one winds up waiting a long time between updates.


Yep, it spat out hours 48-120 all at once lol.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1483 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:20 am

finally out to 120hrs... barely a hump on the isobars.. north of Dominican Republic..



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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1484 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:23 am

whats all this talk of shear? Dr Masters indicates along with SHIPs only 5-10 kts the next 5 days. The southerly shear seen on the west side of 94L is due to the clockwise motion of the upper high currently centered over the deepest convection. If this anticyclone moves in tandem with the LLC, then shear will not be an issue.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1485 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:24 am

Admittedly that crummy structure would be a hard sell and this one is still ulgy.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1486 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:24 am

vacanechaser wrote:finally out to 120hrs... barely a hump on the isobars.. north of Dominican Republic..



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its over the turks and caicos heading wnw to west which is a huge shift from 00z
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1487 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:25 am

on the upper air, looks like building heights up in the great lakes region.... makes sense as a trough is expected to pick up jumena in the west... so, no energy digging in to pick this up.. now, does it come in as a system, or as a wave as the 120hr shows..

edit: not to mention the 594 ridge near bermuda


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#1488 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:25 am

:uarrow: yep its more with the ECMWF moving it more West.

Pretty significant change in its thinking if you ask me. Previously it just sent it off out to sea around 60W
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#1489 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:26 am

Hmmmmm....I believe the shear issue will pop up later in the forecast and not in the short term.
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Re:

#1490 Postby artist » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:28 am

Stormcenter wrote:Hmmmmm....I believe the shear issue will pop up later in the forecast and not in the short term.

can you tell me what you reasoning is so I can try to understand?
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#1491 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:28 am

TD at 5, calling it now. I already have my crow in the oven cooking just in case though lol.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1492 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:28 am

ronjon wrote:whats all this talk of shear? Dr Masters indicates along with SHIPs only 5-10 kts the next 5 days. The southerly shear seen on the west side of 94L is due to the clockwise motion of the upper high currently centered over the deepest convection. If this anticyclone moves in tandem with the LLC, then shear will not be an issue.


Its westerly shear ronjon being clearly caused by the powerful jet streak going round the ULL to its north. Whilst there is a Anti-cyclone over the convection the center is now decent west of the convection and the lower levels is outrunning the upper high and looknig at the shear maps now under about 15-20kts of shear.
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Re:

#1493 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:28 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: yep its more with the ECMWF moving it more West.

Pretty significant change in its thinking if you ask me. Previously it just sent it off out to sea around 60W


nogaps in with the euro as well.. but has a substantial system in the central bahamas..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#1494 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:30 am

Looks like the GFS comes in line with the Euro. Euro looking good this season
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#1495 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:32 am

I think the center will firm up in the NE part of the overall circ as the convection persists. No real convection is going to happen on the SW side with the shear over it
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#1496 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:32 am

The key thing to note is no significant system out there during this run (again)which makes you wonder what will eventually kill off 94L.....Mr. Shear maybe? It reminds me of Ana. It will develop then eventually get hacked by the shear.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#1497 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:33 am

KWT wrote:
ronjon wrote:whats all this talk of shear? Dr Masters indicates along with SHIPs only 5-10 kts the next 5 days. The southerly shear seen on the west side of 94L is due to the clockwise motion of the upper high currently centered over the deepest convection. If this anticyclone moves in tandem with the LLC, then shear will not be an issue.


Its westerly shear ronjon being clearly caused by the powerful jet streak going round the ULL to its north. Whilst there is a Anti-cyclone over the convection the center is now decent west of the convection and the lower levels is outrunning the upper high and looknig at the shear maps now under about 15-20kts of shear.


Yeah, but the question is why is the convective blob trailing the low-level cusp so much ... I think there may be some mid-level shear responsible for that.
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Re:

#1498 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:33 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Is it me, or is 94L slowing down and making more of a NW jog in the last few frames?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html



Not sure I see a NW motion.. might just be the convection expanding
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#1499 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:35 am

TAFB has shifted south, notice the wave/trough impacting FL. Low is now in the Caribbean heading WNW near Puerto Rico, but not as a cyclone yet (possible)

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Re:

#1500 Postby artist » Mon Aug 31, 2009 11:37 am

Stormcenter wrote:The key thing to note is no significant system out there during this run (again)which makes you wonder what will eventually kill off 94L.....Mr. Shear maybe? It reminds me of Ana. It will develop then eventually get hacked by the shear.

stormcenter is that just a guess or do you have some reasoning behind it. I am just trying to learn here. Thanks
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