ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, looks this morning that a consensus is starting to gain favor of a Panhandle landfall or very near close before any loop takes place. I can see a 40-60mph wind with this but I would doubt anything stronger. I'm also thinking with the front approaching and the changing wind directions with height that this could have a higher threat of Tornadoes/Waterspouts.

I agree Dean. I was alluding to this yesterday because of the faster movement if Ida than the models were forecasting. Finally, last night the models were accurately showing Ida's motion. Should be interesting around here.

[robbielyn]

I dont think there is a comparison synoptically speaking but looking at the looping brought to mind elena in 85 I was in the panhandle at the time and had to evac twice as it went se and then back up towards us again. Then 2 months later, hurricane kate wow that was a fun hurricane. Got me hooked on tracking.

[Ivanhater]

06z Nogaps actually makes landfall in the New Orleans area

[deltadog03]

Why does this look different with the HWRF run?? I got it from the PSU page (tropical)

[tgenius]

So the developments overnight lead me to believe that South FL is going to dodge a bullet with Ida...

[Ivanhater]

Good God Chris, where did that come from! lol

[deltadog03]

It says the 6z run of the HWRF. That is from the main PSU tropical webpage...

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[robbielyn]

Tampa as always will dodge a bullet too. I'm thinking big bend being the eastern most part crossing into georgia northern fl and ga watch out for tornadoes!!

[deltadog03]

Ah, I think I figured it out. The FSU page shows 10M windspeed and the PSU tropical page shows them with the max 950mb....Sorry, my bad!

[jinftl]

Literally any where from the Panhandle to the Keys could be in Ida's path....what is the trend of the models overall? Seeing more support for a sharp right hook at some point and less meandering in the north-central gulf.

None of the latest models show a system moving north or nw by 30N.....rather, they show a northeast to east to even southeast motion commencing somewhere between 25N and 30N. Timing will be key with this turn east.....if it happen sooner, the keys north are at higher risk. If it happens later, the panhandle is at higher risk.

Latest model runs (12z)




Compared to prior model runs (6z):

[jlauderdal]

12 UTC Best Track

In line with SSD Dvorak,45kts.

AL, 11, 2009110712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 841W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Looks like that center is east of 84W by a few degrees?

you mean a few 1/10ths of a degree, big difference.. a few degrees would have some people really excited

[MGC]

I don't see the shear the NHC is talking about. There is a slight flow from the south at the upper levels but Ida is going with the flow so the shear across the TS is minimal. The outflow of the storm looks good in all quadrants. I expect Ida to continue to intensify today and tomorrow and has a good shot at becoming a hurricane again.....MGC

[jinftl]

Disagree....esp given that this could be a large blustery rainmaker that has most of the weather on the east side. Tropical storms/weaker systems can have the worst weather well-removed from the center. Given the models showing a east to southeast turn late in the period, at this point, how can any part of florida be sounding the all clear?

Unlike yesterday, the entire state of Florida is now in the NHC "cone"....not sure how a system forecast to be to our west-nw and moving east-se is a development meriting an 'all clear'?



NWS Miami is keeping open any and all possibilities:

THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH T.S. IDA TAKES. THE CURRENT NHC TAKES IDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. ON THIS TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
GULF WEST OF SOUTH FL. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...OUR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. OF COURSE...IF IDA ENDS UP
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THIS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

INCREASING HELICITY TAKES PLACE BY MONDAY...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE STABLE. HOWEVER...BY MON NIGHT/TUE...INSTABILITY
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT FCST OF
IDA...THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE DISTANCE
FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD BE A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...ON THIS CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AS SAID ABOVE CONCERNING RAIN...THIS WOULD ALL
CHANGE SHOULD THE IDA TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

GFS/ECWMF ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING IDA MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED-THU.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...CREATING A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...CREATING ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOCALLY MAY BE MID WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH CAN
CHANGE THOUGH SO STAYED WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE >20 KT...EVEN INCREASING TO 25-30
KT SUN-MON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SO VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

So the developments overnight lead me to believe that South FL is going to dodge a bullet with Ida...

[jdray]

Tampa as always will dodge a bullet too. I'm thinking big bend being the eastern most part crossing into georgia northern fl and ga watch out for tornadoes!!

Yup, all my neighbors will say "it's gonna miss us" and totally forget about the tornadic threat.

[ocala]

GFS windshear forecast ..not good

IF** that map is correct then the GFS not only is telling you where it thinks she is going, but saying look out as well!

True, but the SST's in the Central Gulf aren't that warm.

[ericinmia]

What is supposed to make Ida make her eventual NW-WNW movement?

[deltadog03]

Agreed, I am not talking about a raging cat 5 or anything, but they are more than warm enough for a cat 1 or 2 to survive in. I think this has a decent shot at being a 1 in the gom. Regardless, your going to have a strong pressure gradient at the coast, so winds will be higher mainly cuz of that.

[deltadog03]

The ridge at 500mb

[ericinmia]

She sure looks good.... on the loop, it's like watching a boiling pot of water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[robbielyn]

Tampa as always will dodge a bullet too. I'm thinking big bend being the eastern most part crossing into georgia northern fl and ga watch out for tornadoes!!

Yup, all my neighbors will say "it's gonna miss us" and totally forget about the tornadic threat.

Tampa Bay NWS is making it sound like another day in paradise almost. I believe we will have some rain and some wind but nothing too impressive. I don't even think tornadoes will be much of a factor from hernando(spring hill) south. I think tornadoes will be a ne fl ga event. Why? Cause it usually is. Our shield stays up year round lol.