ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271154
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 24 20090827
114430 2734N 07139W 6957 03206 0088 +098 +062 151021 022 005 000 00
114500 2732N 07140W 6956 03207 0085 +102 +057 151020 020 006 000 03
114530 2730N 07141W 6957 03207 0089 +098 +066 151020 021 005 000 03
114600 2728N 07142W 6957 03207 0075 +111 +048 147018 018 007 000 03
114630 2727N 07144W 6957 03208 0074 +113 +043 150016 017 006 000 03
114700 2725N 07145W 6958 03207 0074 +113 +041 159015 016 005 000 03
114730 2723N 07146W 6958 03205 0073 +112 +042 167014 014 005 000 00
114800 2721N 07147W 6957 03206 0075 +111 +043 164013 013 006 000 00
114830 2719N 07148W 6958 03204 0075 +110 +043 165013 013 999 999 03
114900 2718N 07149W 6959 03202 0073 +111 +041 161010 011 999 999 03
114930 2716N 07150W 6958 03203 0074 +110 +040 164009 010 999 999 03
115000 2714N 07152W 6957 03203 0068 +113 +042 162008 008 999 999 03
115030 2714N 07154W 6958 03203 0067 +114 +047 168006 007 999 999 03
115100 2713N 07156W 6959 03201 0068 +113 +047 154005 005 999 999 03
115130 2712N 07159W 6958 03203 0069 +113 +042 174004 005 999 999 03
115200 2711N 07201W 6959 03201 0066 +116 +040 186005 005 999 999 03
115230 2711N 07203W 6960 03201 0064 +117 +039 179006 006 999 999 03
115300 2711N 07206W 6960 03201 0068 +114 +039 178005 006 999 999 03
115330 2711N 07208W 6959 03200 0067 +114 +036 166004 004 999 999 03
115400 2711N 07210W 6957 03202 0066 +115 +035 190004 004 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

Danny, your an interesting storm dude.

[wxman57]

With Danny's broad, elongated center yesterday, it could have 2-3 small vortices rotating around now. I'm not at work yet, and I'm not logged in to my workstation where I can get better imagery/loops. At the rate Danny is "strengthening", maybe it'll become a hurricane without a well-defined center later today?

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271204
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 25 20090827
115430 2711N 07213W 6959 03200 0065 +116 +034 191005 005 999 999 03
115500 2711N 07215W 6958 03199 0065 +115 +033 189004 005 999 999 03
115530 2711N 07217W 6960 03198 0063 +116 +032 158001 002 999 999 03
115600 2711N 07220W 6958 03201 0064 +116 +029 198002 002 999 999 03
115630 2710N 07222W 6959 03200 0053 +126 +019 323002 003 999 999 03
115700 2708N 07223W 6960 03197 0053 +126 +017 318004 005 999 999 03
115730 2706N 07224W 6959 03198 0053 +125 +017 314004 005 999 999 03
115800 2704N 07224W 6959 03198 0054 +126 +014 315006 006 999 999 03
115830 2702N 07225W 6959 03200 0053 +127 +013 319006 006 999 999 03
115900 2700N 07226W 6958 03201 0053 +127 +012 315006 006 999 999 03
115930 2658N 07226W 6959 03200 0052 +127 +014 313007 007 999 999 03
120000 2656N 07227W 6959 03199 0050 +128 +014 322007 008 999 999 03
120030 2654N 07228W 6959 03199 0051 +129 +016 334006 007 999 999 03
120100 2652N 07228W 6958 03201 0053 +127 +017 344005 005 999 999 03
120130 2650N 07229W 6959 03201 0056 +126 +018 347005 006 999 999 03
120200 2648N 07230W 6959 03202 0057 +126 +018 356006 006 999 999 03
120230 2646N 07230W 6958 03203 0058 +125 +020 356004 005 999 999 03
120300 2644N 07231W 6959 03203 0059 +124 +026 349003 003 999 999 03
120330 2642N 07232W 6960 03202 0058 +125 +027 349002 003 999 999 03
120400 2639N 07232W 6960 03202 0059 +124 +024 333003 003 999 999 03

[srainhoutx]

Still buying the E of Outer Banks idea folks?

[tolakram]

Every morning a new sheared direction.

But the models that had that unbelievable sharp right turn ... well a center reformation will do that.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 271214
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 26 20090827
120430 2637N 07233W 6958 03203 0059 +124 +023 303002 002 999 999 03
120500 2635N 07234W 6959 03203 0059 +123 +028 296002 003 999 999 03
120530 2633N 07234W 6959 03202 0062 +120 +033 297003 003 999 999 03
120600 2631N 07235W 6959 03202 0061 +122 +035 305003 003 999 999 03
120630 2629N 07236W 6959 03203 0062 +121 +037 282002 002 999 999 03
120700 2627N 07236W 6960 03201 0061 +120 +035 305001 002 999 999 03
120730 2625N 07237W 6959 03201 0060 +121 +035 011001 001 999 999 03
120800 2623N 07238W 6960 03202 0063 +119 +038 120002 002 999 999 03
120830 2621N 07238W 6960 03202 0065 +117 +044 161001 002 999 999 03
120900 2619N 07239W 6960 03201 0067 +116 +044 213001 001 999 999 03
120930 2617N 07240W 6959 03203 0068 +116 +043 162002 003 999 999 03
121000 2615N 07241W 6959 03203 0068 +116 +044 164002 002 999 999 03
121030 2613N 07241W 6959 03204 0073 +112 +051 154002 002 999 999 03
121100 2611N 07242W 6959 03207 0074 +112 +048 179002 002 999 999 03
121130 2609N 07242W 6960 03204 0075 +112 +048 184001 002 999 999 03
121200 2607N 07243W 6960 03205 0073 +113 +048 228002 002 999 999 03
121230 2605N 07244W 6959 03205 0075 +111 +053 240003 003 999 999 03
121300 2602N 07244W 6960 03203 0076 +111 +048 253003 004 999 999 03
121330 2600N 07245W 6961 03204 0076 +111 +043 260004 004 999 999 03
121400 2558N 07246W 6961 03203 0078 +109 +046 273004 006 999 999 03

000
URNT15 KWBC 271224
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 27 20090827
121430 2556N 07246W 6959 03205 0078 +109 +044 257008 009 999 999 03
121500 2554N 07247W 6959 03206 0078 +110 +042 258010 011 999 999 03
121530 2552N 07247W 6960 03207 0080 +110 +040 263012 013 999 999 03
121600 2550N 07248W 6961 03206 0080 +111 +035 266012 012 999 999 03
121630 2548N 07249W 6959 03205 0080 +110 +037 268010 011 999 999 03
121700 2546N 07249W 6961 03204 0080 +110 +035 265011 011 999 999 03
121730 2544N 07250W 6962 03203 0079 +111 +032 264010 011 999 999 03
121800 2542N 07250W 6960 03205 0076 +114 +028 263011 011 999 999 03
121830 2541N 07248W 6959 03206 0076 +114 +023 259011 012 999 999 03
121900 2540N 07246W 6960 03207 0077 +115 +022 256012 013 999 999 03
121930 2541N 07244W 6960 03206 0077 +115 +023 256013 013 999 999 03
122000 2541N 07241W 6961 03206 0079 +113 +032 251012 012 004 000 00
122030 2541N 07239W 6961 03206 0078 +114 +035 244011 011 999 999 03
122100 2541N 07236W 6960 03208 0079 +114 +043 238010 010 999 999 03
122130 2541N 07234W 6961 03208 0080 +112 +047 238010 010 006 000 03
122200 2541N 07232W 6960 03209 0081 +112 +049 237009 010 999 999 03
122230 2541N 07229W 6960 03209 0082 +110 +053 233009 009 999 999 03
122300 2541N 07227W 6961 03208 0083 +109 +054 230009 009 003 000 03
122330 2541N 07224W 6960 03209 0084 +109 +053 221009 009 999 999 03
122400 2541N 07222W 6961 03210 0082 +112 +045 213011 012 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271234
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 28 20090827
122430 2541N 07220W 6961 03208 0082 +112 +041 214012 012 999 999 03
122500 2541N 07217W 6961 03210 0080 +115 +036 216013 014 999 999 03
122530 2541N 07215W 6960 03211 0080 +116 +037 221014 015 999 999 03
122600 2541N 07212W 6961 03210 0082 +113 +049 225014 015 999 999 03
122630 2541N 07210W 6960 03210 0081 +114 +027 220016 016 999 999 03
122700 2541N 07208W 6962 03209 0081 +113 +043 224015 016 003 000 03
122730 2541N 07205W 6960 03210 0080 +112 +052 223014 015 999 999 03
122800 2541N 07203W 6962 03208 0079 +111 +069 220016 017 003 000 03
122830 2541N 07200W 6957 03212 0082 +109 +066 219015 017 006 000 03
122900 2541N 07158W 6960 03211 0084 +110 +049 219017 017 007 000 03
122930 2541N 07155W 6958 03213 0085 +109 +051 212015 017 999 999 03
123000 2542N 07153W 6960 03210 0084 +109 +055 210016 017 999 999 03
123030 2544N 07151W 6958 03213 0083 +109 +059 210017 017 999 999 03
123100 2545N 07150W 6959 03211 0084 +107 +069 205019 019 999 999 03
123130 2548N 07150W 6958 03211 0081 +111 +055 201019 019 005 000 03
123200 2550N 07150W 6959 03212 0082 +111 +059 208017 018 005 000 00
123230 2552N 07150W 6960 03210 0087 +105 +074 218018 020 008 000 03
123300 2554N 07150W 6958 03211 0079 +112 +051 212018 018 999 999 03
123330 2557N 07150W 6956 03214 0082 +109 +057 212019 020 023 004 03
123400 2559N 07151W 6959 03209 0083 +109 +058 209018 018 007 000 03

[sandyb]

Still buying the E of Outer Banks idea folks?

yea what do yall think now the hurricane center does not even know where it is or it if is...how can anyone here know? what about land fall in NC?

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

An Air Force research paper once stated, "Weak tropical cyclones have multiple centers..." [1980's reference]

As the Pro Mets have stated, shear is forecast to increase (over an already sheared LLC), so, let that speak for itself...

Frank

[AdamFirst]

This whole thing is a colossal mess. But it's still something to watch...the only thing to watch.

[otowntiger]

With Danny's broad, elongated center yesterday, it could have 2-3 small vortices rotating around now. I'm not at work yet, and I'm not logged in to my workstation where I can get better imagery/loops. At the rate Danny is "strengthening", maybe it'll become a hurricane without a well-defined center later today?

You forgot to mention that he's NOT coming to Florida!

[sandyb]

are they riding in there right now? can someone explain what they are saying? is this what the hurricane center makes their predictions on as to what the plane date comes back as?

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271244
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 29 20090827
123430 2601N 07151W 6958 03210 0076 +115 +044 211015 016 006 000 00
123500 2603N 07151W 6960 03210 0078 +114 +044 211016 017 004 000 03
123530 2605N 07151W 6959 03210 0079 +112 +046 210016 016 003 000 03
123600 2608N 07151W 6958 03210 0076 +114 +047 211016 016 004 000 03
123630 2610N 07151W 6960 03209 0075 +116 +046 210016 016 999 999 03
123700 2612N 07151W 6959 03208 0073 +117 +043 215016 016 999 999 03
123730 2614N 07151W 6958 03208 0071 +116 +046 216016 016 004 000 03
123800 2617N 07151W 6959 03205 0068 +119 +041 215016 016 999 999 03
123830 2619N 07151W 6960 03205 0068 +118 +043 214018 018 004 000 03
123900 2621N 07151W 6959 03205 0068 +118 +043 223019 020 003 000 00
123930 2623N 07151W 6959 03205 0069 +117 +048 217017 018 010 001 03
124000 2625N 07152W 6960 03204 0071 +116 +043 216017 018 005 000 03
124030 2628N 07152W 6960 03204 0072 +114 +046 217017 017 999 999 03
124100 2630N 07152W 6959 03207 0071 +116 +043 219013 014 999 999 03
124130 2632N 07153W 6958 03208 0069 +117 +045 215010 010 999 999 03
124200 2634N 07153W 6959 03207 0071 +116 +046 213010 010 999 999 03
124230 2636N 07153W 6960 03203 0070 +116 +044 208010 010 999 999 03
124300 2639N 07153W 6960 03204 0067 +120 +036 208010 011 999 999 03
124330 2641N 07153W 6960 03203 0063 +122 +035 201011 011 999 999 03
124400 2643N 07153W 6960 03204 0064 +122 +033 200012 012 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

This whole thing is a colossal mess. But it's still something to watch...the only thing to watch.

We have a new invest out by africa. That'll ease the pain for a bit

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 271254
NOAA3 WX05A DANNY2 HDOB 30 20090827
124430 2645N 07153W 6960 03203 0070 +115 +044 193012 012 999 999 03
124500 2647N 07153W 6959 03203 0070 +113 +054 199011 012 999 999 03
124530 2650N 07153W 6957 03204 0071 +112 +052 202012 013 999 999 03
124600 2652N 07153W 6959 03203 0072 +112 +045 199012 012 999 999 03
124630 2654N 07154W 6959 03202 0072 +111 +042 196011 012 999 999 03
124700 2656N 07154W 6959 03203 0073 +111 +045 195012 012 999 999 03
124730 2658N 07154W 6959 03203 0074 +111 +042 194012 012 999 999 03
124800 2701N 07154W 6960 03203 0075 +111 +040 193012 012 999 999 03
124830 2703N 07154W 6959 03203 0075 +110 +038 192011 011 999 999 03
124900 2705N 07155W 6959 03203 0075 +111 +035 186012 012 999 999 03
124930 2707N 07155W 6959 03204 0075 +111 +037 185012 012 999 999 03
125000 2710N 07155W 6959 03202 0070 +114 +039 180012 012 999 999 03
125030 2712N 07155W 6959 03203 0071 +111 +047 174012 013 999 999 03
125100 2714N 07157W 6959 03202 0072 +112 +042 167011 012 999 999 03
125130 2716N 07158W 6960 03202 0072 +112 +043 159011 011 999 999 03
125200 2718N 07158W 6960 03202 0072 +113 +046 160010 011 999 999 03
125230 2720N 07200W 6960 03202 0073 +112 +046 160011 011 999 999 03
125300 2722N 07201W 6960 03203 0074 +111 +045 162011 011 999 999 03
125330 2724N 07202W 6959 03203 0075 +110 +045 165011 011 003 000 03
125400 2726N 07204W 6959 03203 0073 +112 +036 163011 011 999 999 03

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

yea what do yall think now the hurricane center does not even know where it is or it if is...how can anyone here know? what about land fall in NC?

Well at storm2k there are quite a few professional meteorologists, some retirees I'm sure, even folks that used to or currently do work at the NWS occasionally pop in here. There are a SLEW of student and hopeful meteorologists, as well as a huge number of weather weenies and cloud dorks. I would say you throw all that together and you get something worth listening to.

As for this storm, Its a mess. The ULL isn't reacting like it was forecast, the upper air pattern is completely different, its the weather, what are you gonna do. Best thing here is that there IS a nice trough down through florida still, the H is still not building back in, so it's definitely going to follow more or less the NHC's track. They have a very good track record.

Most of the stuff I see is still east and north of center so it is not going to intensify greatly, maybe a 1, probably not, all the bad weather is displaced well east of the center, so even if the center of circulation follows teh NHC cone along its western edge - the main effects are still a hundred miles offshore. I'm not very keen on an NC hit at this point.