ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[cycloneye]

94L looks three times better than Danny.

[sandyb]

yea what do yall think now the hurricane center does not even know where it is or it if is...how can anyone here know? what about land fall in NC?

Well at storm2k there are quite a few professional meteorologists, some retirees I'm sure, even folks that used to or currently do work at the NWS occasionally pop in here. There are a SLEW of student and hopeful meteorologists, as well as a huge number of weather weenies and cloud dorks. I would say you throw all that together and you get something worth listening to.

As for this storm, Its a mess. The ULL isn't reacting like it was forecast, the upper air pattern is completely different, its the weather, what are you gonna do. Best thing here is that there IS a nice trough down through florida still, the H is still not building back in, so it's definitely going to follow more or less the NHC's track. They have a very good track record.

Most of the stuff I see is still east and north of center so it is not going to intensify greatly, maybe a 1, probably not, all the bad weather is displaced well east of the center, so even if the center of circulation follows teh NHC cone along its western edge - the main effects are still a hundred miles offshore. I'm not very keen on an NC hit at this point.

thank you

[HURAKAN]

Air Force

URNT15 KNHC 271313
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 02 20090827
130400 1742N 06448W 0149 00000 0146 +306 +292 360000 000 999 999 23
130430 1742N 06448W 0149 00000 0145 +305 +289 360000 000 999 999 23
130500 1742N 06448W 0147 00000 0144 +311 +285 360000 000 999 999 23
130530 1742N 06448W 0146 00000 0142 +309 +281 360000 000 999 999 23
130600 1742N 06448W 0145 00000 0140 +304 +277 360000 000 999 999 23
130630 1742N 06448W 0142 00000 0138 +307 +273 360000 000 999 999 23
130700 1742N 06449W 0139 00000 0136 +298 +268 360000 000 999 999 23
130730 1742N 06449W 0137 00000 0133 +294 +264 360000 000 999 999 23
130800 1742N 06449W 0132 00000 0130 +301 +259 360000 000 999 999 23
130830 1742N 06449W 0134 00000 0126 +309 +254 360000 000 999 999 23
130900 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0127 +312 +249 360000 000 999 999 23
130930 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +303 +245 360000 000 999 999 23
131000 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0129 +301 +242 360000 000 999 999 23
131030 1742N 06449W 0133 00000 0130 +300 +241 360000 000 999 999 23
131100 1742N 06449W 0132 00000 0129 +300 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
131130 1742N 06449W 0130 00000 0128 +291 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
131200 1742N 06449W 0127 00000 0126 +284 +240 103005 013 999 999 23
131230 1742N 06448W 0050 00057 0132 +273 +237 109014 017 999 999 03
131300 1742N 06447W 9867 00252 0148 +255 +231 114013 014 999 999 03
131330 1744N 06446W 9564 00495 0114 +235 +222 108014 015 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[storms NC]

You know I was thinking that we would never have another Ernesto 2006. But By God if Danny is not just like him. They never could get a handle on Ernesto. And he was in bad shap but he was wierd just like danny is. He was to go this way but went his way. All the way up fl and gain strength over land.

[HURAKAN]

I see you!

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 271334
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 04 20090827
132400 1815N 06450W 5700 04847 0112 -005 -005 071015 016 999 999 03
132430 1816N 06451W 5637 04956 0115 -008 -008 080015 015 999 999 03
132500 1817N 06453W 5571 05050 0110 -010 -010 089015 015 999 999 03
132530 1819N 06454W 5501 05142 0104 -015 -015 092013 014 999 999 03
132600 1820N 06455W 5431 05235 0286 -024 +999 092014 014 999 999 05
132630 1821N 06457W 5371 04898 0054 -030 +999 093013 014 999 999 05
132700 1823N 06458W 5299 05440 0299 -032 +999 087013 013 999 999 05
132730 1825N 06458W 5229 05553 0313 -034 +999 079011 011 999 999 05
132800 1826N 06459W 5172 05642 0318 -035 +999 079010 010 999 999 05
132830 1828N 06500W 5123 05712 0322 -040 +999 090009 009 999 999 05
132900 1829N 06501W 5071 05797 0327 -045 +999 094011 012 999 999 05
132930 1831N 06502W 5029 05865 0333 -047 +999 095013 013 999 999 05
133000 1833N 06503W 4980 05941 0338 -050 -050 092014 014 999 999 05
133030 1834N 06504W 4930 06022 0345 -053 -053 088013 013 999 999 03
133100 1836N 06504W 4890 06084 0349 -055 -055 091012 012 999 999 03
133130 1838N 06505W 4846 06155 0354 -061 -061 092013 014 999 999 03
133200 1840N 06506W 4807 06219 0359 -066 -066 092014 015 999 999 03
133230 1841N 06507W 4766 06287 0362 -072 -072 091015 015 999 999 05
133300 1843N 06508W 4724 06354 0367 -075 -075 086015 016 999 999 03
133330 1845N 06509W 4683 06427 0371 -080 -080 082015 015 999 999 05

I got to go.

[HURAKAN]

[storms NC]

Danny is missing his mark from NHC. way to the south of the mark. NHC point is 28.3N 73W it is at 27.3N 73W. He must be going west and not relocateing. like some have said on here. Sorry but this is a very hard guy to figure out.

[Dave]

I'm working with comcast cable setting up a change over to it from DSL and can help out here but may be gone a few minutes at a time until it's all installed.

000
URNT15 KNHC 271344
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 05 20090827
133400 1846N 06510W 4640 06500 0375 -085 -085 082015 015 999 999 05
133430 1848N 06511W 4601 06554 0372 -086 -086 080014 014 999 999 03
133500 1850N 06512W 4563 06615 0377 -086 -086 075014 014 999 999 03
133530 1852N 06513W 4529 06676 0381 -090 -090 074014 014 999 999 03
133600 1853N 06514W 4500 06726 0383 -095 -095 074014 015 999 999 03
133630 1855N 06514W 4474 06763 0383 -097 -097 073015 015 999 999 03
133700 1857N 06515W 4458 06798 0384 -100 -100 072015 015 999 999 03
133730 1858N 06516W 4446 06814 0386 -100 -100 074015 016 999 999 03
133800 1900N 06517W 4430 06839 0387 -100 -100 076015 016 999 999 03
133830 1902N 06518W 4417 06867 0388 -100 -100 080015 016 999 999 03
133900 1904N 06519W 4349 06989 0399 -107 -107 086016 016 999 999 03
133930 1906N 06520W 4317 07042 0404 -115 -115 087017 017 999 999 03
134000 1907N 06521W 4290 07094 0409 -119 -119 086017 017 999 999 03
134030 1909N 06522W 4259 07151 0413 -122 -122 081016 017 999 999 03
134100 1911N 06523W 4230 07205 0417 -125 -125 078016 016 999 999 03
134130 1913N 06524W 4205 07248 0421 -130 -130 077016 016 999 999 03
134200 1914N 06525W 4163 07325 0425 -136 -136 074016 016 999 999 03
134230 1916N 06526W 4100 07441 0432 -144 -144 071016 016 999 999 03
134300 1918N 06526W 4047 07542 0439 -153 -153 074017 017 999 999 05
134330 1919N 06527W 3993 07642 0446 -161 +999 077017 017 999 999 05
$$

[Sanibel]

Obvious westward movement of naked spiral. I assume it is about to do that hard right turn.

[dixiebreeze]

Seems like the NHC was doing a whole lot of cya in its 8 a.m. discussion this a.m. -- and I don't blame them!

[Tropics Guy]

Danny south of projected path now, seems the LLC (naked swirl) still heading wnw for now............

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 271353
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 06 20090827
134400 1921N 06528W 3943 07733 0452 -167 +999 081015 016 999 999 05
134430 1923N 06529W 3893 07833 0459 -176 +999 080015 015 999 999 05
134500 1925N 06530W 3846 07929 0463 -183 +999 082016 016 999 999 05
134530 1927N 06531W 3804 08003 0468 -190 +999 089017 017 999 999 05
134600 1928N 06532W 3761 08088 0473 -196 +999 091015 015 999 999 05
134630 1930N 06533W 3708 08212 0495 -203 +999 086014 014 999 999 05
134700 1932N 06534W 3666 08298 0505 -212 +999 087014 014 999 999 05
134730 1934N 06535W 3627 08379 0510 -218 +999 090014 014 999 999 05
134800 1936N 06536W 3601 08432 0510 -223 +999 091014 014 999 999 05
134830 1937N 06537W 3594 08436 0508 -225 +999 094014 014 999 999 05
134900 1939N 06538W 3595 08434 0506 -225 +999 092015 015 999 999 05
134930 1942N 06539W 3597 08430 0505 -225 +999 095015 015 999 999 05
135000 1944N 06540W 3597 08432 0504 -222 -222 096015 016 999 999 05
135030 1946N 06542W 3596 08432 0505 -225 -225 094016 017 999 999 03
135100 1948N 06543W 3597 08430 0504 -225 -239 092017 017 999 999 03
135130 1951N 06544W 3597 08430 0505 -225 -267 090017 018 999 999 03
135200 1953N 06546W 3598 08434 0506 -225 -293 090017 018 999 999 03
135230 1955N 06547W 3595 08437 0508 -225 -334 087016 017 999 999 03
135300 1958N 06548W 3598 08434 0507 -225 -253 086017 017 999 999 03
135330 2000N 06550W 3598 08436 0509 -225 -244 087016 016 999 999 03
$$
;

[ncweatherwizard]

Every morning a new sheared direction.

But the models that had that unbelievable sharp right turn ... well a center reformation will do that.

It's really difficult to see in this image, but if you look at an unenhanced IR loop just from just before sunrise, you'll see a low-level "arc" shaped cloud feature moving away from the center beneath the high clouds. This indicates cool downdrafts rushing outward when they reach the surface. As long as that happens (and further combined with shear), Danny will have a very hard time maintaining convection over the center.

['CaneFreak]

You know....the last several frames of visible reveal a westward movement for me with little to no northward movement...which makes sense because the low level flow is from east to west...this is going to be interesting...using the 5:00 A.M. coordinates from the NHC...this thing has made NO progression north...as a matter of fact...this thing has headed 270 degrees!!! 27.4N 72.1W were the coordinates at 5am...its now at 27.4 and almost 73.0W...WOW!!!

[dixiebreeze]

27/1145 UTC 27.5N 72.9W T2.5/2.5 DANNY -- Atlantic

[canes04]

still heading west! I still think this will ride up the east coast from FLA to NC.
This is a tough one for the NHC to forcast.

[storms NC]

Danny south of projected path now, seems the LLC (naked swirl) still heading wnw for now............

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

He has gone west NHC at 5AM

5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 27
Location: 27.4°N 72.1°W

Now 27.4N 73.W so that is west.

['CaneFreak]

Also....looking at the latest water vapor imagery, the ULL over the Gulf is not moving NE as earlier indicated...and it is also still a closed low...it has cut off...as I mentioned yesterday (No applause needed)...