ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

could someone please pass me whatever it is the GFS is smoking? It must be some really good stuff

SHIPS analyzes a whole 6KT of shear over this. Please... that must be some good stuff GFS is on

[Gustywind]

12z HWRF is close for confort for northern Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Right Luis, don't like that for you my friends! : Even if Guadeloupe could get some outers bands from this feature, humm to close for all the Northern for sure!

['CaneFreak]

could someone please pass me whatever it is the GFS is smoking? It must be some really good stuff

SHIPS analyzes a whole 6KT of shear over this. Please... that must be some good stuff GFS is on

If you find the stuff it is smoking...let me know...I could use some too

[wxman57]

RAMMB site shows 20+ kts shear (850mb-200mb) over 94L now (top panel):

['CaneFreak]

whats all this talk of shear? Dr Masters indicates along with SHIPs only 5-10 kts the next 5 days. The southerly shear seen on the west side of 94L is due to the clockwise motion of the upper high currently centered over the deepest convection. If this anticyclone moves in tandem with the LLC, then shear will not be an issue.

Jeff Masters and SHIPS are beyond wrong in this case. Was just at HRD map discussion... system has more issues than I thought it would yesterday

So, what all was discussed...please enlighten me...I am an upcoming tropical meteorologist...thanks...

[Blown Away]

for those that want to see a well developed system, and some D and D, follow Jimena

Jimena is a beauty and it's not looking good for the Baja. 94L is wrapping convection along the W side of the circulation.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS tracks it to east of Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't look like it tracks much based on that run.

12z NOGAPS tracks it to east of Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

The TPC moves 94L in a general WNW to NW motion for the next 48 hours and then turns 94L west through 72 hours and stays N of PR.
24 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

48 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

72 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Blown Away]

12z NOGAPS tracks it to east of Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

94L looks weak on that run and the ridge looks to be building in at the end of that run.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops into a hurricane and after moving west for a while it recurves before it reaches the U.S coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Bocadude85]

12z ECMWF develops into a hurricane and after moving west for a while it recurves before it reaches the U.S coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Hmm thats interesting cycloneye

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see if 94L can survive this shear.

[Derek Ortt]

same track as the CMC

[Bocadude85]

same track as the CMC

Whats your thoughts on this?

[storms NC]

94L is not that bad looking. It seem that it is trying really hard to spin up. But the ULL to the north of it is keeping it from doing so. I don't think it has to do much with the shear that much as the ULL to the north. It may not do so. But if it could just burst and 94L could be a bad storm in a few days.MO

[deltadog03]

I don't know what to think of the euro this run...Its the first run it even really develops this....

[ladilan]

Interesting little story in the Miami Herald....The miami Herald is not known to get get all crazy over storm...

Hurricane center closely watching tropical wave
BY CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com
A large, well-organized tropical wave that appears likely to become the season's fifth tropical storm, Erika, continued to move toward the Windward Islands on Monday.

Forecasters put the odds of the wave strengthening into a tropical depression in the next few days at better than 50 percent.

``Right now, it looks really impressive on satellite images,'' said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ``We've had some flare ups of showers and thunderstorms today.''

At 2 p.m., the center was tracking the storm moving west-northwest at 15 mph about 500 miles east of the chain of Caribbean islands that make up the Windwards. The path immediately ahead was only ``marginally favorable'' for development for the next day or so -- in part because of a low pressure system off the Bahamas that is producing some wind shear.

Computer models vary widely on the system's projected path, Feltgen said, and it was too far away to predict whether it would pose a threat to Florida or the East Coast.

``We're going to be watching this thing closely,'' he said.

[vbhoutex]

Will be interesting to see if 94L can survive this shear.

I am starting to wonder if 94L is going to develop past where it is now. It still has no well defined LLCC and even with strong convection firing for a good while has not developed one. Still elongated with at least 2 vortexes swirling around from what I see. The shear, if it continues as expected, has a good chance to deal a very strong blow to any chances of development any time soon imo. Indeed we may have a "zone of death" or at least of major disruption.

[cycloneye]

I don't know what to think of the euro this run...Its the first run it even really develops this....

You are thinking about the track?