ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[AdamFirst]

12 hours ago they didn't expect Ida to get over 55 MPH throughout the entirety of the forecast track.

NHC is always conservative with forecasts - probably not to induce panic. They adjust accordingly.

[ericinmia]

I just don't get it. This is not a NHC bash! They have seen this before:
1. An expanding deep uniform anvil canopy
2. Outflow feathers on the SW side in the face of the possible shear...
3. TCHP in the stratosphere in virgin waters9not traveresed by hurricane previously this year)
4. Two outflow jets
5.And a partridge in a pear tree

If the current trend continues, this thing is going Cane and not just minimal!!

Agreed.... and the waters it is in (ships, land, etc.) I would favor them 'over-casting' and not 'under-casting'.

At least once we get an Eye feature popping through we can track her easier...

[cycloneye]

At Yucatan Channel.

000
URNT15 KNHC 071517
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 13 20091107
150900 2156N 08614W 3759 08046 0422 -195 -269 172008 008 029 001 00
150930 2156N 08614W 3759 08046 0421 -196 -240 178008 008 031 000 00
151000 2151N 08612W 3758 08041 0421 -196 -229 182008 008 030 001 00
151030 2149N 08611W 3759 08038 0421 -195 -230 192009 009 031 000 00
151100 2147N 08609W 3759 08040 0423 -195 -249 182009 010 032 000 00
151130 2144N 08608W 3759 08043 0423 -195 -242 176014 015 031 001 00
151200 2142N 08607W 3759 08042 0423 -195 -248 173016 017 033 000 00
151230 2140N 08606W 3759 08044 0423 -195 -231 175016 016 031 002 00
151300 2137N 08605W 3759 08042 0423 -195 -195 182017 017 028 002 00
151330 2135N 08603W 3759 08041 0423 -195 -236 184016 017 028 002 00
151400 2133N 08602W 3759 08044 0422 -193 -259 176016 016 027 000 00
151430 2130N 08601W 3758 08047 0424 -191 -260 174018 018 028 002 00
151500 2128N 08600W 3759 08038 0423 -190 -256 167016 018 028 006 00
151530 2126N 08559W 3758 08045 0424 -190 -223 150013 015 035 009 00
151600 2124N 08557W 3750 08057 0424 -177 -205 156010 012 038 021 00
151630 2121N 08556W 3770 08021 0421 -178 -189 160004 008 049 021 03
151700 2119N 08555W 3756 08045 0423 -189 -239 176002 003 038 008 00
151730 2116N 08554W 3759 08041 0422 -187 -255 200003 005 029 001 00
151800 2114N 08553W 3759 08044 0423 -185 -237 194007 009 031 004 00
151830 2112N 08551W 3759 08042 0422 -185 -246 197009 009 033 004 00

[Evil Jeremy]

12 hours ago they didn't expect Ida to get over 55 MPH throughout the entirety of the forecast track.

NHC is always conservative with forecasts - probably not to induce panic. They adjust accordingly.

Whats more important, not causing panic, or making sure that those in danger are properly prepared?

I would favor them 'over-casting' and not 'under-casting'.

Fully agree.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

The crew will tell us how strong is Ida.See recon thread for the details of the mission.

[Derek Ortt]

there is only one outflow channel, not 2. I only expect there to be one, which is why I don;t bring this above cat 1

[ericinmia]

Hello Ida...

[ronjon]

That was from 5 am. what are we on a 6 hour right now? I got my info from ruskin in the 7 day forecast for spring hill, fl north of tampa and it didn't say that. Ask Cyclone he moved my thread but it said the forecast is more clear this morning. It will decouple and merge with the low and become extratropical. No high winds above 21mph for my area. What is the exact url you used? Maybe mine was too local. I went to noaa.gov and typed in my zip.

Robbielyn, take the NWS 4-5 day forecast with a grain of salt now. NWS is always conservative that far out - when we get within the 48-72 hrs the forecast will likely change dramatically. Judging from what I see now, we'll likely experience tropical storm force conditions for perhaps 2 days whether its tropical or extratropical. Expect squally weather, heavy rain, higher tides. I'm not expecting hurricane strength this far north but moderate tropical storm conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[drezee]

They are dumping all of the old data now: I was able to grab one
000
URNT15 KNHC 071519
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 05 20091107
134900 2824N 08911W 3757 08001 0380 -225 -293 265026 028 020 000 00
134930 2821N 08912W 3758 08000 0378 -225 -254 264024 025 022 000 00
135000 2818N 08912W 3759 07993 0377 -225 -266 264025 027 022 000 00
135030 2816N 08912W 3758 07997 0378 -225 -278 264023 023 014 001 03
135100 2813N 08911W 3760 08000 0380 -225 -252 262023 023 017 001 03
135130 2811N 08910W 3758 08002 0379 -225 -293 264023 023 035 000 00
135200 2808N 08909W 3759 08003 0379 -225 -267 264023 024 087 000 00
135230 2806N 08908W 3759 08005 0381 -225 -247 260023 024 055 000 00
135300 2803N 08906W 3761 07996 0381 -225 -294 255024 025 022 000 00
135330 2801N 08905W 3758 08001 0381 -225 -270 256022 023 020 001 00
135400 2758N 08904W 3758 08001 0380 -225 -276 257021 021 022 000 00
135430 2756N 08903W 3759 08005 0383 -223 -272 251021 022 026 000 00
135500 2753N 08902W 3760 07998 0383 -220 -229 248022 022 025 000 00
135530 2751N 08900W 3759 08002 0384 -220 -278 248021 022 025 000 00
135600 2748N 08859W 3758 08010 0384 -220 -278 251020 021 027 000 00
135630 2746N 08858W 3761 08004 0384 -220 -249 255020 020 026 001 00
135700 2744N 08857W 3759 07999 0384 -220 -225 258018 019 026 000 01
135730 2741N 08856W 3759 08002 0383 -220 -220 257017 017 026 001 01
135800 2739N 08854W 3759 08005 0385 -220 -243 254017 018 024 002 00
135830 2736N 08853W 3761 07998 0384 -220 -282 248018 018 025 001 00
$$

[BZSTORM]

can i make please request for Hurakan to do his mapping when he gets back online please, I don't understand the coordinates and numbers but can understand his graphic maps, thanks in advance.

[Ivanhater]

Rapid Scan..Looking at this and the loop of the microwave, I believe the NW turn has begun.

[WindRunner]

Number 6...still old

URNT15 KNHC 071523
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 06 20091107
135900 2734N 08852W 3758 08012 0386 -220 -282 241019 019 025 001 00
135930 2731N 08851W 3760 08005 0386 -216 -274 237020 021 024 003 00
140000 2729N 08850W 3759 08010 0385 -217 -279 243021 022 026 002 00
140030 2726N 08849W 3758 08008 0387 -215 -288 244020 021 024 003 00
140100 2724N 08847W 3759 08009 0387 -219 -276 244021 022 025 002 00
140130 2721N 08846W 3761 08003 0387 -216 -283 256023 024 025 002 00
140200 2719N 08845W 3757 08013 0387 -220 -246 256021 022 025 002 03
140230 2717N 08844W 3759 08012 0388 -220 -220 255020 020 025 001 01
140300 2714N 08843W 3760 08007 0389 -220 +999 255022 024 027 000 01
140330 2712N 08841W 3758 08012 0390 -215 +999 255023 025 027 000 01
140400 2709N 08840W 3761 08007 0389 -215 +999 256023 025 025 001 01
140430 2707N 08839W 3758 08017 0391 -215 -230 255022 022 025 000 01
140500 2704N 08838W 3759 08015 0391 -216 -293 250023 024 025 001 00
140530 2702N 08837W 3759 08010 0391 -217 -292 250022 023 026 001 00
140600 2659N 08835W 3758 08015 0392 -220 -282 251021 022 026 001 00
140630 2657N 08834W 3761 08012 0392 -220 -257 250022 022 026 001 00
140700 2654N 08833W 3758 08018 0392 -220 +999 252022 022 025 002 01
140730 2652N 08832W 3759 08017 0393 -219 +999 255022 022 025 001 01
140800 2649N 08831W 3759 08012 0392 -215 -222 255023 023 027 000 00
140830 2647N 08830W 3759 08009 0392 -215 -245 252020 021 026 001 00
$$
;

[WindRunner]

And Number 8...guess I didn't see 7?

URNT15 KNHC 071525
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 08 20091107
141900 2555N 08805W 3757 08025 0402 -213 -274 238022 023 027 000 00
141930 2553N 08804W 3760 08021 0403 -212 -270 235025 027 028 000 00
142000 2550N 08803W 3759 08023 0402 -213 -239 233025 026 027 001 00
142030 2548N 08802W 3758 08028 0403 -214 +999 226028 029 028 000 01
142100 2546N 08801W 3759 08021 0403 -211 -220 219026 027 030 000 01
142130 2543N 08800W 3760 08018 0403 -210 -278 205024 026 028 000 00
142200 2541N 08758W 3758 08031 0404 -213 -283 205026 027 028 000 00
142230 2539N 08757W 3759 08021 0403 -210 -285 202028 028 028 001 00
142300 2536N 08756W 3757 08030 0405 -214 -287 200026 026 027 002 00
142330 2534N 08755W 3759 08027 0404 -215 -264 204025 026 027 001 00
142400 2532N 08754W 3761 08017 0402 -214 -282 207023 024 027 001 00
142430 2529N 08753W 3759 08028 0404 -213 -255 212024 025 027 001 00
142500 2527N 08752W 3759 08025 0404 -210 -230 223025 026 028 000 00
142530 2525N 08751W 3759 08021 0405 -213 -228 225024 025 029 000 00
142600 2522N 08750W 3759 08028 0405 -215 -265 230026 026 028 000 00
142630 2520N 08749W 3759 08024 0405 -215 -266 231025 025 029 000 00
142700 2517N 08747W 3760 08021 0405 -211 -256 232027 028 028 000 00
142730 2515N 08746W 3759 08031 0406 -210 -279 232027 028 027 001 00
142800 2513N 08745W 3758 08026 0406 -210 -289 233027 028 027 001 00
142830 2510N 08744W 3761 08024 0407 -210 -228 233026 027 027 001 00
$$
;

[WindRunner]

Dropsonde from 5 mins ago...

UZNT13 KNHC 071524
XXAA 57154 99228 70867 08126 99013 27242 08020 00116 26437 08022
92799 20012 09025 85526 16437 09526 70156 07638 10017 50586 06907
09510 40758 15356 24515 88999 77999
31313 09608 81457
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 03
62626 SPL 2286N08672W 1507 MBL WND 09023 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10513
012376 WL150 08021 079 REL 2285N08668W 145743 SPG 2286N08672W 150
745 =
XXBB 57158 99228 70867 08126 00013 27242 11922 19813 22850 16437
33730 09414 44651 04838 55639 04058 66621 02656 77613 02259 88603
01658 99597 01428 11585 01050 22575 00632 33494 07508 44481 07328
55422 14322 66390 15357 77376 19159
21212 00013 08020 11958 09527 22878 09522 33850 09526 44730 09525
55689 11017 66639 10012 77611 12013 88576 09021 99517 11010 11492
09012 22470 20505 33431 25011 44376 24026
31313 09608 81457
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 03
62626 SPL 2286N08672W 1507 MBL WND 09023 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10513
012376 WL150 08021 079 REL 2285N08668W 145743 SPG 2286N08672W 150
745 =
;

[cycloneye]

Observation Time: Saturday, 14:50Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 23.5N 87.0W
Location: 338 miles (543 km) to the WSW (257°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,620 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,570 geopotential meters

[MGC]

NHC keep nudging the track to the north, a trend I don't care for. I am now in the three day cone! Plus, Ida looks to be intensifying at a good clip. I expect Ida to become a hurricane again. Looks like a repeat of Kate in 1985 almost......MGC

[WindRunner]

Back to live data for now...they're still at cruising altitude.


RNT15 KNHC 071527
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 14 20091107
151900 2109N 08550W 3759 08037 0420 -186 -258 189007 009 029 004 00
151930 2107N 08549W 3761 08040 0420 -190 -251 178006 006 030 002 00
152000 2105N 08548W 3758 08040 0420 -189 -233 140005 006 027 001 00
152030 2102N 08546W 3760 08043 0420 -187 -187 138004 004 029 000 01
152100 2100N 08545W 3760 08036 0421 -188 -221 152003 005 030 000 00
152130 2057N 08544W 3760 08039 0421 -189 -248 203003 004 032 005 00
152200 2055N 08543W 3759 08041 0421 -190 -272 210004 005 035 007 00
152230 2053N 08541W 3759 08044 0422 -191 -263 186003 004 035 002 00
152300 2050N 08540W 3759 08037 0422 -190 -248 229002 003 031 002 00
152330 2048N 08539W 3759 08040 0420 -190 -223 283003 005 030 001 00
152400 2045N 08538W 3758 08038 0420 -190 -200 317005 008 030 003 00
152430 2043N 08537W 3759 08040 0421 -187 -235 351003 009 029 002 00
152500 2040N 08535W 3760 08040 0419 -182 -204 014002 004 028 004 00
152530 2038N 08534W 3758 08035 0417 -186 -220 350009 011 028 007 00
152600 2036N 08533W 3760 08036 0418 -185 -208 005006 008 029 005 00
152630 2033N 08532W 3758 08039 0417 -187 -225 020008 008 029 004 00
152700 2031N 08530W 3759 08035 0419 -185 -255 004006 008 029 001 00
152730 2028N 08529W 3758 08037 0419 -186 -251 055008 010 029 001 00
152800 2026N 08528W 3759 08035 0417 -185 -244 069012 014 027 001 00
152830 2023N 08527W 3760 08035 0417 -188 -236 067015 017 028 002 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Hello Ida...

Why does this view show the center clearly east of 84W and the official point is west of 84W?

[drezee]

I see two outflow jets: one to the West and one to the NE