ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[expat2carib]

The eighth was yesterday (EDT time)

Ohhh Sh.t Then i lost all my money, my house, my wife and more

I placed all I own at my bookie. Ana the eight of august. This site is evil LOL

[cycloneye]

Strait West

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1745 UTC 14.2N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

309
WHXX01 KWBC 100036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC MON AUG 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090810 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 0000 090810 1200 090811 0000 090811 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 23.2W 15.4N 26.2W 16.2N 29.1W 16.7N 31.8W
BAMD 14.4N 23.2W 15.4N 24.9W 16.6N 26.5W 17.8N 28.0W
BAMM 14.4N 23.2W 15.5N 25.7W 16.6N 28.0W 17.5N 30.2W
LBAR 14.4N 23.2W 15.6N 25.2W 17.1N 27.0W 18.8N 28.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 0000 090813 0000 090814 0000 090815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 34.1W 17.1N 38.7W 18.7N 43.3W 22.1N 48.2W
BAMD 19.1N 29.5W 21.8N 32.1W 23.4N 32.6W 22.1N 32.7W
BAMM 18.4N 32.2W 20.4N 36.7W 22.7N 41.3W 25.8N 44.4W
LBAR 20.6N 29.4W 25.2N 31.4W 27.7N 34.2W 27.8N 35.3W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 36KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 23.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 21.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 18.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

where is the evidence of a completely closed surface circulation? Just looked at the QS and I do not see a closed circulation. Microwave also does not suggest much surface organization at this time.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds124.png

not quite there yet... it is close. Needs a few SE winds to the NE of the center. That we are kind of missing

[CrazyC83]

Center seems to be around 13.8N 23.3W on that graphic.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Center seems to be around 13.8N 23.3W on that graphic.

I completely agreee, I do not understand why the models and the Dvorak numbers place the system north of 14.0

[Blown Away]

Looking at those models it seems there is no doubt this will be a fish storm with a slight possibility of Bermuda. The problem I have is almost all those models have 99L moving WNW to NW rate now and it is clearly moving almost due west.

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS is the only model that has a westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.The question is if this model may turn to be the right one trackwise,or the other fish bunch prevails.

[Aric Dunn]

where is the evidence of a completely closed surface circulation? Just looked at the QS and I do not see a closed circulation. Microwave also does not suggest much surface organization at this time.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds124.png

not quite there yet... it is close. Needs a few SE winds to the NE of the center. That we are kind of missing

yeah derek.. not sure of a well defined closed surface circ yet either.. still some evidence of a leading convergence boundary which would limit the low closing off on the west ands SW side .. but morning visible will tell more as it will be in goes view with a floater hopefully.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow should be a great day.

[gatorcane]

well it doesn't surpise me it is code orange at all. I would have left it at that code. GFS certainly is not bullish on developing it into anything more than a border TD/TS then eventually poofs it down the road with no impact to any land.

Another 24 hours of good organization though and you bet NHC will move it code red. At this point its a bit premature with only marginal SSTs and some lingering SAL.

[lester]

[Blown Away]

If I'm reading correctly, the 18z HWRF has 99L as a TS rate now. Maybe these NW tracked models are developing 99L to quickly. I guess a shallower 99L goes farther W.

[storm92405]

Does anyone know if the CV Islands have a Weather Radar system? That would be helpful.

[ExBailbonds]

If it continues to look this good, I would expect an upgrade to 'code red' on the 8pm....2am at the latest....tropical weather outlooks put out by the nhc...and an upgrade to a depression shortly thereafter

I agree. This could be Ana tomorrow. OK, so I was 2 days early with my May prediction of August 8th.

Pretty impressive there Wxman57.

[MGC]

99L continues to hold its own. I would not be surprised if 99L is upgraded to TD sometime Monday.....MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Best of the globals, Euro, says fish

[jinftl]

Several models forecast we will be talking about Ana tomorrow night/Tuesday (35kt = 40mph)

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look good

[Annie Oakley]

Continues to look good

And so starts the unsurpassed beauty of Cyclogenesis so well depicted by Huracan...