EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[HURAKAN]

WOW

[CrazyC83]

I'd have gone with 135 kt personally, with a pressure of 928mb.

If the T-numbers come back at T7.0 or higher, a special advisory later is possible.

[RL3AO]

Incredible storm.

[CrazyC83]

For all we know, it might be a Cat 5 if Recon were available.

[CrazyC83]

These are numbers similar to Typhoon Melor.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:48:05 N Lon : 104:36:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.7mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 7.2 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a Cat 5.

[ozonepete]

For all we know, it might be a Cat 5 if Recon were available.

I'm with you, CrazyC83 and Hurakan. At this point it's really hard to tell for sure, but I would say it's a five. It just looks almost perfect. In the RGB image you can see stadium effect and what looks like mesovortices in the eye.

[CrazyC83]

For all we know, it might be a Cat 5 if Recon were available.

I'm with you, CrazyC83 and Hurakan. At this point it's really hard to tell for sure, but I would say it's a five. It just looks almost perfect.

I'd have gone with 135 kt at the advisory since I have just enough suspicion to prevent going over that psychological barrier. The next SAB update is at about 2345Z, so if we were to see a special advisory, the most likely time is around 0000Z (5 pm PDT), unless a special analysis is done.

[ozonepete]

For all we know, it might be a Cat 5 if Recon were available.

I'm with you, CrazyC83 and Hurakan. At this point it's really hard to tell for sure, but I would say it's a five. It just looks almost perfect.

I'd have gone with 135 kt at the advisory since I have just enough suspicion to prevent going over that psychological barrier. The next SAB update is at about 2345Z, so if we were to see a special advisory, the most likely time is around 0000Z (5 pm PDT), unless a special analysis is done.

The smartest approach.

[I-wall]

This looks like a cat 5 to me. Reminds me of Katrina with its very large and symmetrical eye with very cold cloud tops.

I just cant see how this ISNT a cat 5.

[Squarethecircle]

Quite intriguing to have two such incredibly powerful storms in what is otherwise a relatively normal or even somewhat below average year.

From what little I can tell, the satellite presentation seems about as impressive as anything that's formed thus far in 2009.

[srainhoutx]

[Macrocane]

If this is not upgraded on the next advisory to a cat 5 then we will have to wait for re-analysis because it surely looks perfect (Jimena may be upgraded too).

[btangy]

It's very likely that this is a category 5 currently. It just has that look of sculpted symmetry that one sees in the most intense hurricanes. The raw T numbers are closer to reality, so 140-150 knots would be my guess of the current intensity challenging Melor for the strongest tropical cyclone of the year thus far. Of course, we'll never know for sure without recon.

[CrazyC83]

ADT now supports Cat 5.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2009 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:44:02 N Lon : 104:42:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 923.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.0 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

If this is not upgraded on the next advisory to a cat 5 then we will have to wait for re-analysis because it surely looks perfect (Jimena may be upgraded too).

Barring a special advisory (very possible), the next advisory is a bit over 5 hours away.

If they analyze it at T7.5 at the next estimate, then a special advisory is a given for sure.

[HURAKAN]

Another great view

[Squarethecircle]

If this is not upgraded on the next advisory to a cat 5 then we will have to wait for re-analysis because it surely looks perfect (Jimena may be upgraded too).

Barring a special advisory (very possible), the next advisory is a bit over 5 hours away.

If they analyze it at T7.5 at the next estimate, then a special advisory is a given for sure.

Given the conditions it shouldn't weaken much (or even at all) over that time span.

Interestingly enough, despite the fact that it is a bit late in the season for the EPAC, two hurricanes have previously reached category 5 status even after Rick (in all probability) will: Kenna and the 1959 Mexico storm.

[HURAKAN]

24 hours ago:



Now:



Great loop

[Macrocane]

It seems like if he wanted to fool us and waited after the advisory to suddenly become more symmetric.