ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:27Z
Date: November 7, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
 
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
15:19:00Z 21.150N 85.833W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 189° at 7 knots
(From the S at ~ 8.0 mph) -18.6°C
(~ -1.5°F) -25.8°C
(~ -14.4°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 22.6 knots (~ 25.9 mph)
 322.2%
15:19:30Z 21.117N 85.817W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 178° at 6 knots
(From the S at ~ 6.9 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -25.1°C
(~ -13.2°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
 500.0%
15:20:00Z 21.083N 85.800W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 140° at 5 knots
(From the SE at ~ 5.8 mph) -18.9°C
(~ -2.0°F) -23.3°C
(~ -9.9°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 22.5 knots (~ 25.9 mph)
 450.0%
15:20:30Z 21.033N 85.767W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,043 meters
(~ 26,388 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 138° at 4 knots
(From the SE at ~ 4.6 mph) -18.7°C*
(~ -1.7°F*) -18.7°C*
(~ -1.7°F*) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
 725.0%
15:21:00Z 21.000N 85.750W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,036 meters
(~ 26,365 feet) - 421 meters
(~ 1,381 feet) From 152° at 3 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 3.4 mph) -18.8°C
(~ -1.8°F) -22.1°C
(~ -7.8°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
 600.0%
15:21:30Z 20.950N 85.733W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,039 meters
(~ 26,375 feet) - 421 meters
(~ 1,381 feet) From 203° at 3 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 3.4 mph) -18.9°C
(~ -2.0°F) -24.8°C
(~ -12.6°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
 800.0%
15:22:00Z 20.917N 85.717W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,041 meters
(~ 26,381 feet) - 421 meters
(~ 1,381 feet) From 210° at 4 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 4.6 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -27.2°C
(~ -17.0°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
 700.0%
15:22:30Z 20.883N 85.683W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,044 meters
(~ 26,391 feet) - 422 meters
(~ 1,385 feet) From 186° at 3 knots
(From the S at ~ 3.4 mph) -19.1°C
(~ -2.4°F) -26.3°C
(~ -15.3°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.2 knots (~ 30.2 mph)
 875.0%
15:23:00Z 20.833N 85.667W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 422 meters
(~ 1,385 feet) From 229° at 2 knots
(From the SW at ~ 2.3 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -24.8°C
(~ -12.6°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 20.7 knots (~ 23.8 mph)
 1033.3%
15:23:30Z 20.800N 85.650W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 283° at 3 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -22.3°C
(~ -8.1°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
 600.0%
15:24:00Z 20.750N 85.633W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,038 meters
(~ 26,371 feet) - 420 meters
(~ 1,378 feet) From 317° at 5 knots
(From the NW at ~ 5.8 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 18.8 knots (~ 21.6 mph)
 375.0%
15:24:30Z 20.717N 85.617W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 421 meters
(~ 1,381 feet) From 351° at 3 knots
(From the N at ~ 3.4 mph) -18.7°C
(~ -1.7°F) -23.5°C
(~ -10.3°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 9.7 knots (~ 11.1 mph)
 322.2%
15:25:00Z 20.667N 85.583W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 419 meters
(~ 1,375 feet) From 14° at 2 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 2.3 mph) -18.2°C
(~ -0.8°F) -20.4°C
(~ -4.7°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 14.0 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
 700.0%
15:25:30Z 20.633N 85.567W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 350° at 9 knots
(From the N at ~ 10.3 mph) -18.6°C
(~ -1.5°F) -22.0°C
(~ -7.6°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 22.9 knots (~ 26.3 mph)
 254.5%
15:26:00Z 20.600N 85.550W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,036 meters
(~ 26,365 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 5° at 6 knots
(From the N at ~ 6.9 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -20.8°C
(~ -5.4°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 21.8 knots (~ 25.0 mph)
 362.5%
15:26:30Z 20.550N 85.533W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,039 meters
(~ 26,375 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 20° at 8 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph) -18.7°C
(~ -1.7°F) -22.5°C
(~ -8.5°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
 362.5%
15:27:00Z 20.517N 85.500W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 419 meters
(~ 1,375 feet) From 4° at 6 knots
(From the N at ~ 6.9 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -25.5°C
(~ -13.9°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 21.8 knots (~ 25.0 mph)
 362.5%
15:27:30Z 20.467N 85.483W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 419 meters
(~ 1,375 feet) From 55° at 8 knots
(From the NE at ~ 9.2 mph) -18.6°C
(~ -1.5°F) -25.1°C
(~ -13.2°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.2 knots (~ 26.7 mph)
 290.0%
15:28:00Z 20.433N 85.467W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 69° at 12 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 13.8 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -24.4°C
(~ -11.9°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.1 knots (~ 26.6 mph)
 192.9%
15:28:30Z 20.383N 85.450W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 67° at 15 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph) -18.8°C
(~ -1.8°F) -23.6°C
(~ -10.5°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 24.7 knots (~ 28.4 mph)
 164.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
At 15:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 65 miles (104 km) to the E (90°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
At 15:28:30Z (last observation), the observation was 104 miles (167 km) to the ESE (121°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.


[tolakram]

It should be moving into greater and greater shear, but I'm not sure the shear technique has a handle on the development.

[lonelymike]

Be nice to hear what wxman57 has to say this AM. He always cuts through all the nonsense posted on this board.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC keep nudging the track to the north, a trend I don't care for. I am now in the three day cone! Plus, Ida looks to be intensifying at a good clip. I expect Ida to become a hurricane again. Looks like a repeat of Kate in 1985 almost......MGC

I would not put to much trust on the overall cone right now. There are many uncertainties right now with Ida. Keep a watch on her, but to quote the best guide to the galaxy out there, "Don't Panic".

[Evil Jeremy]

Hello Ida...

Why does this view show the center clearly east of 84W and the official point is west of 84W?

Perhaps this scan was not available when the NHC wrote the advisory.

[jinftl]

The NHC always issues probabilities of a storm reaching various strengths with each advisory.....the NHC issues ranges of possibilities, which we of course run with as absolutes.

As of the 10pm advisory on friday (yesterday), the forecast for Ida's strength on Sunday was given the probabilities:
dissipated = 6%
tropical depression = 28%
tropical storm = 60%
hurricane = 6%

As of the 4am advisory today, the forecast for Ida's strength on Sunday was given the probabilities:
dissipated = 3%
tropical depression = 15%
tropical storm = 67%
hurricane = 15%

As of the 10am advisory today, the forecast for Ida's strength on Sunday was given the probabilities:
dissipated = 1%
tropical depression = 4%
tropical storm = 64%
hurricane = 32%

Seeing these numbers is a reminder not to fixate on any one number for wind speed....and the same is true of track and everyone's favorite 'margin of error'...i.e., the cone. Nothing is set in stone with Ida. The probabilities...and the trends...of what is most likely is what to watch.

12 hours ago they didn't expect Ida to get over 55 MPH throughout the entirety of the forecast track.

NHC is always conservative with forecasts - probably not to induce panic. They adjust accordingly.

Whats more important, not causing panic, or making sure that those in danger are properly prepared?

I would favor them 'over-casting' and not 'under-casting'.

Fully agree.

[Blown Away]

Be nice to hear what wxman57 has to say this AM. He always cuts through all the nonsense posted on this board.

Hey, I resemble that remark and always remember nonsense may not be informative but it can be very entertaining.

[WindRunner]

More old data coming in. Since Luis posted 13 above, this should be the last of the backlog.

URNT15 KNHC 071530
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 12 20091107
145900 2245N 08638W 3761 08034 0415 -194 -300 245026 027 026 001 00
145930 2242N 08637W 3758 08034 0416 -195 -293 249025 026 027 001 00
150000 2240N 08636W 3760 08035 0417 -195 -261 253023 023 028 000 00
150030 2237N 08635W 3758 08039 0416 -198 -237 255023 023 027 000 00
150100 2235N 08634W 3759 08038 0419 -200 -276 253024 025 028 000 00
150130 2232N 08633W 3759 08037 0419 -200 -268 258023 024 028 001 00
150200 2230N 08632W 3758 08039 0419 -200 -264 257025 025 028 001 00
150230 2227N 08630W 3762 08031 0417 -200 -235 255022 024 029 001 00
150300 2225N 08629W 3757 08040 0418 -198 +999 252018 019 028 000 01
150330 2222N 08628W 3761 08036 0418 -197 -213 253017 018 028 000 00
150400 2220N 08627W 3758 08039 0418 -199 -258 255016 017 029 001 00
150430 2218N 08626W 3759 08037 0419 -197 -242 250014 015 029 001 00
150500 2215N 08624W 3759 08038 0419 -195 -257 240011 012 030 000 00
150530 2213N 08623W 3758 08038 0419 -195 -271 232011 012 030 000 00
150600 2210N 08622W 3759 08041 0420 -195 -269 219011 011 029 001 00
150630 2208N 08621W 3758 08044 0421 -194 -254 211011 011 030 001 00
150700 2206N 08619W 3759 08038 0421 -195 -266 208010 011 030 000 00
150730 2203N 08618W 3759 08041 0421 -192 -265 202009 010 029 001 00
150800 2201N 08617W 3758 08041 0423 -191 -274 178009 010 031 000 00
150830 2158N 08616W 3759 08038 0421 -195 -267 165008 009 031 000 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Don't like the recent NHC disco. May not weaken as much as previously thought. Derek's forecast is for a landfall in the Greater Pensacola area at 70 knots I believe.

If this landfalls as a Hurricane in Pensacola this would be the farthest west a Hurricane has ever made landfall in the USA in the month of November.

[ericinmia]

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Master's update this morning:


Tropical Storm Ida is slowly strengthening, as it heads north-northwest towards an encounter with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Sunday night. SSTs are a warm 29°C, and the total ocean heat content is over 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for intensification. The rains have ended over Nicaragua and Honduras, and Ida dumped up to eleven inches of rain along the coast in Nicaragua, causing flooding that damaged thousands of homes, but caused no deaths or injuries as of yet.

The forecast for Ida
The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.
I'll have an update later today, or on Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

[WindRunner]

Should begin their descent soon I would think.

URNT15 KNHC 071537
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 15 20091107
152900 2021N 08525W 3758 08037 0418 -186 -218 072008 010 031 003 00
152930 2019N 08524W 3759 08037 0418 -190 -228 067007 008 031 002 03
153000 2016N 08523W 3758 08039 0417 -189 -215 053012 013 031 002 00
153030 2014N 08522W 3758 08040 0418 -187 +999 063008 009 031 001 01
153100 2011N 08520W 3759 08037 0417 -187 -187 059007 009 031 001 01
153130 2009N 08519W 3760 08033 0415 -185 -228 050010 011 031 002 00
153200 2006N 08518W 3761 08034 0416 -185 -221 076010 011 032 001 00
153230 2004N 08517W 3761 08029 0414 -183 -229 078010 012 032 002 00
153300 2002N 08515W 3758 08037 0415 -184 -216 070008 009 031 001 00
153330 2000N 08514W 3761 08027 0412 -185 +999 038005 007 030 003 01
153400 1958N 08513W 3758 08033 0417 -186 -226 015004 005 024 004 03
153430 1957N 08511W 3759 08034 0414 -185 -220 040005 006 031 004 03
153500 1956N 08508W 3759 08034 0413 -183 -224 029006 006 031 002 00
153530 1956N 08506W 3759 08028 0414 -180 -232 016005 005 032 002 00
153600 1955N 08503W 3761 08034 0415 -180 -208 343003 004 034 002 00
153630 1955N 08501W 3759 08034 0415 -181 -198 346003 004 035 003 00
153700 1954N 08459W 3762 08029 0415 -177 -243 316004 006 036 002 00
153730 1954N 08456W 3759 08035 0415 -177 -279 331005 006 037 001 03
153800 1954N 08454W 3759 08034 0416 -174 -297 301005 006 038 000 00
153830 1953N 08452W 3762 08031 0416 -173 -282 299005 005 037 001 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

About what we expected when we went to sleep last night.

Re-firing and working back up to hurricane. The west Caribbean SST's finally got to feed a system this year.

Nice black IR-accented main burst and a few band bursts which probably means extra energy waiting to be fed in.

Should see hurricane later today. Could see an unexpected intensity burst. Hazy upper shows strengthening.

Has hit the steering that will take it more NW and slowed.

[cycloneye]

Ob 15 decoded

Code: Select all

Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:37Z
Date: November 7, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 15
 
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
15:29:00Z 20.350N 85.417W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 72° at 8 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph) -18.6°C
(~ -1.5°F) -21.8°C
(~ -7.2°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 24.8 knots (~ 28.5 mph)
 310.0%
15:29:30Z 20.317N 85.400W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 67° at 7 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 8.0 mph) -19.0°C
(~ -2.2°F) -22.8°C
(~ -9.0°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 31 knots*
(~ 35.6 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 27.1 knots* (~ 31.2 mph*)
 387.5%*
15:30:00Z 20.267N 85.383W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,039 meters
(~ 26,375 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 53° at 12 knots
(From the NE at ~ 13.8 mph) -18.9°C
(~ -2.0°F) -21.5°C
(~ -6.7°F) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 28.6 knots (~ 32.9 mph)
 238.5%
15:30:30Z 20.233N 85.367W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 63° at 8 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph) -18.7°C*
(~ -1.7°F*) -* 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 27.6 knots (~ 31.7 mph)
 344.4%
15:31:00Z 20.183N 85.333W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 59° at 7 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 8.0 mph) -18.7°C*
(~ -1.7°F*) -18.7°C*
(~ -1.7°F*) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 24.1 knots (~ 27.7 mph)
 344.4%
15:31:30Z 20.150N 85.317W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,033 meters
(~ 26,355 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 50° at 10 knots
(From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -22.8°C
(~ -9.0°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 28.2 knots (~ 32.4 mph)
 281.8%
15:32:00Z 20.100N 85.300W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 76° at 10 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 11.5 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -22.1°C
(~ -7.8°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 29.1 knots (~ 33.5 mph)
 290.9%
15:32:30Z 20.067N 85.283W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,029 meters
(~ 26,342 feet) - 414 meters
(~ 1,358 feet) From 78° at 10 knots
(From between the ENE and E at ~ 11.5 mph) -18.3°C
(~ -0.9°F) -22.9°C
(~ -9.2°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.7 knots (~ 30.7 mph)
 266.7%
15:33:00Z 20.033N 85.250W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,037 meters
(~ 26,368 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 70° at 8 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph) -18.4°C
(~ -1.1°F) -21.6°C
(~ -6.9°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 27.6 knots (~ 31.7 mph)
 344.4%
15:33:30Z 20.000N 85.233W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,027 meters
(~ 26,335 feet) - 412 meters
(~ 1,352 feet) From 38° at 5 knots
(From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph) -18.5°C*
(~ -1.3°F*) -* 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 21.4 knots (~ 24.6 mph)
 428.6%
15:34:00Z 19.967N 85.217W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,033 meters
(~ 26,355 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 15° at 4 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 4.6 mph) -18.6°C
(~ -1.5°F) -22.6°C
(~ -8.7°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 24 knots*
(~ 27.6 mph*) 4 mm/hr*
(~ 0.16 in/hr*) 19.2 knots* (~ 22.1 mph*)
 480.0%*
15:34:30Z 19.950N 85.183W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 414 meters
(~ 1,358 feet) From 40° at 5 knots
(From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph) -18.5°C
(~ -1.3°F) -22.0°C
(~ -7.6°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 31 knots*
(~ 35.6 mph*) 4 mm/hr*
(~ 0.16 in/hr*) 25.8 knots* (~ 29.7 mph*)
 516.7%*
15:35:00Z 19.933N 85.133W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 413 meters
(~ 1,355 feet) From 29° at 6 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 6.9 mph) -18.3°C
(~ -0.9°F) -22.4°C
(~ -8.3°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
 516.7%
15:35:30Z 19.933N 85.100W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,028 meters
(~ 26,339 feet) - 414 meters
(~ 1,358 feet) From 16° at 5 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 5.8 mph) -18.0°C
(~ -0.4°F) -23.2°C
(~ -9.8°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 32.0 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
 640.0%
15:36:00Z 19.917N 85.050W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 343° at 3 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph) -18.0°C
(~ -0.4°F) -20.8°C
(~ -5.4°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 25.5 knots (~ 29.3 mph)
 850.0%
15:36:30Z 19.917N 85.017W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 346° at 3 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph) -18.1°C
(~ -0.6°F) -19.8°C
(~ -3.6°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 26.2 knots (~ 30.2 mph)
 875.0%
15:37:00Z 19.900N 84.983W 376.2 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,029 meters
(~ 26,342 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 316° at 4 knots
(From the NW at ~ 4.6 mph) -17.7°C
(~ 0.1°F) -24.3°C
(~ -11.7°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
 600.0%
15:37:30Z 19.900N 84.933W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 331° at 5 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.7°C
(~ 0.1°F) -27.9°C
(~ -18.2°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 37 knots*
(~ 42.5 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 30.8 knots* (~ 35.5 mph*)
 616.7%*
15:38:00Z 19.900N 84.900W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,034 meters
(~ 26,358 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 301° at 5 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.4°C
(~ 0.7°F) -29.7°C
(~ -21.5°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.7 knots (~ 36.4 mph)
 633.3%
15:38:30Z 19.883N 84.867W 376.2 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,031 meters
(~ 26,348 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 299° at 5 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.3°C
(~ 0.9°F) -28.2°C
(~ -18.8°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 37.0 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 740.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
At 15:29:00Z (first observation), the observation was 107 miles (172 km) to the ESE (121°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
At 15:38:30Z (last observation), the observation was 155 miles (249 km) to the SE (124°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.


[robbielyn]

Robbielyn, take the NWS 4-5 day forecast with a grain of salt now. NWS is always conservative that far out - when we get within the 48-72 hrs the forecast will likely change dramatically. Judging from what I see now, we'll likely experience tropical storm force conditions for perhaps 2 days whether its tropical or extratropical. Expect squally weather, heavy rain, higher tides. I'm not expecting hurricane strength this far north but moderate tropical storm conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.[/quote]

I really think this storm is going to be a panhandle event. It's makes all kinds of sense and its moving alot faster than anticipated so that trough may not be there to push it east. I realize it will have a larger windfield after going et but if this hits mobile the storm will remain far west of the peninsula and we may get ts gusts but not sustained and not that much rain. Just enough to be irritating. I'm sorry. I want some excitement and I don't live in the panhandle and cant drive there this week to enjoy it so to me this is really just another et with pressure gradient winds and tornadoes way north of us. Maybe would have had a chance if it went more nne and got closer to us and rode the west coast but that wont happen. Oh well I will stop my complaining as we at least have a last minute storm to track which is so much fun ps we need nexrad in here.

[brunota2003]

I definitely see this thing hitting upper Cat 1, maybe lower Cat 2 prior to the shear taking care of business. I believe Recon may very well find the winds are 60 or 65 knots right now.

[Ivanhater]

Notice the ridge over the Florida Peninsula according to the 12z GFS 54 hours

[IvanSurvivor]

Don't like the recent NHC disco. May not weaken as much as previously thought. Derek's forecast is for a landfall in the Greater Pensacola area at 70 knots I believe.

If this landfalls as a Hurricane in Pensacola this would be the farthest west a Hurricane has ever made landfall in the USA in the month of November.

Even if Ida doesn't actually make a "landfall" on the north central gulf coast...that map is very, very close. We should get some nasty weather, but the bigger issue for us at least on the coast is water rise. With Katrina, Gustav and Ike, the water rise here was significant even though landfall was a long way from here. Per this map, Ida would be close enough to make a mess.

She's gonna ring our doorbell and then ditch!

[Ivanhater]

Ouch...

[Sanibel]

Shear is really movin' up in the north Gulf. Even if Ida intensifies it should rapidly weaken in the Gulf. Shear forecasts were true this time.