ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS 66 hours

[jasons2k]

Morning uypdate from local met Jeff Lindner:

Moisture return is underway this morning ahead of an upper trough to cross the region Sun/Mon

Bay of Campehce system has failed to obtain any better organization and latest model consensus suggestion this area of weather will remain an open trough and pass further S and E of the TX coast than what was suggested yesterday at this time. This keeps the best quality moisture off the TX coast and the threat for excessive rainfall out ove rthe Gulf waters. As the trough approaches the region Sunday expect returning moisture to be lifted and squeezed out in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Best dynamics come to bear over the region toward the late afternoon and early evening hours and this time period will host the highest rain chances and a threat of a strong storm of two. System should clear the region early Monday with a fairly nice week in store ahead of the next system currently penciled in for next weekend.

Tides will be running 2.5-3.5 feet above normal this weekend, but this is a reduction from yesterday where coastal flooding would have been likely. Passage of the stronger winds offshore and smaller fetch suggest a smaller amount of water level pile up. Still may have a few problems at the high tides mainly on the Gulf beaches and low lying areas within the inland bays.

Ida:

Ida has regained tropical storm intensity over the western Caribbean Sea this morning and looks fairly impressive on both IR and VIS satellite images. Deep CDO has developed over the low level center and while outflow appears restricted within the southern semi-circle the shear does not appear strong enough to prevent intensification.

Track:
Models are in general agreement with a steady NNW to NW track for the next 48 hours with Ida enteirngt eh SE Gulf of Mexico. There after a strong trough over TX should help capture Ida and swing her toward the northern Gulf coast. The latest guidance is in general agreement with this track while a few members indicate a looping motion toward the E and SE in the E Gulf prior to Ida reaching the US mainland. NHC forecast as shown below bring the system near landfall as a transitioning tropical system into a cold core frontal low and does continue to indcate the loop toward the E and SE. It should be noted that only a slight faster forward motion could bring the system inland over the Gulf coast. Regardless if Ida makes landfall, the impacts will be far reaching.

Iintensity:
Wind shear appears to be overforecast in the Caribbean and given the very nice structure this morning Ida may become a hurricane in the NW Caribbean. Hence a 1000am Hurricane Watches are issued for portions of the Yucatan. Ida should weaken as she moves into the Gulf of Mexico given increaisng shear ahead of the upper trough and cooler water temps. While expected to weaken the strong pressure gradient between the large high pressure system over the E US and the lower pressure with Ida will result in a large area of strong winds across a wide portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm force and gale winds could extend outward over 200 miles from the center or larger as Ida approaches the US Gulf coast resulting in adverse conditions over a large area. Large scale sustained winds will be capable of producing a larger than normal storm tide/surge from an otherwise minimal tropical system. This will need close watch especially if Ida approaches the concave coast of SE LA and SW MS where trapping of storm surge can result in some significant values.

[brunota2003]

Remember, with sheared storms or storms undergoing EX transition, the worst weather is normally on the NE side of the storm.

[Ivanhater]

The winds 200mb are moving with Ida not against it...remember they were blowing west to east, now they are more south to north..interesting

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 071546
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 16 20091107
153900 1953N 08449W 3757 08040 0417 -172 -265 276004 004 038 001 00
153930 1952N 08447W 3758 08040 0415 -175 -287 258003 003 038 001 00
154000 1952N 08445W 3758 08038 0416 -173 -272 268002 003 037 000 00
154030 1951N 08442W 3761 08032 0416 -171 -238 292005 006 038 000 00
154100 1951N 08440W 3757 08043 0416 -172 -248 298004 007 036 000 00
154130 1950N 08438W 3760 08043 0419 -170 -274 294009 010 037 001 00
154200 1950N 08436W 3761 08035 0419 -170 -259 286010 011 036 002 00
154230 1950N 08433W 3753 08050 0418 -175 -219 008006 008 037 001 00
154300 1949N 08431W 3758 08042 0418 -175 -241 026007 008 038 000 00
154330 1949N 08429W 3759 08035 0416 -175 -244 041011 013 039 001 00
154400 1948N 08427W 3757 08043 0416 -179 -218 046014 015 038 001 00
154430 1948N 08424W 3781 07995 0411 -175 +999 066012 012 037 002 01
154500 1947N 08422W 3872 07821 0403 -165 -213 094012 014 039 001 00
154530 1947N 08419W 3975 07624 0393 -149 -179 095015 015 040 004 01
154600 1946N 08416W 4096 07389 0375 -135 -142 114013 015 041 003 01
154630 1946N 08414W 4241 07128 0357 -119 -139 147020 022 045 008 00
154700 1945N 08411W 4404 06835 0336 -103 -113 140024 024 044 007 00
154730 1945N 08409W 4580 06544 0327 -087 +999 142028 032 044 008 01
154800 1944N 08406W 4705 06333 0317 -076 -093 135034 036 045 009 00
154830 1944N 08404W 4867 06076 0304 -063 -080 132035 035 045 006 00

[cycloneye]

Ob 16 decoded=Starting to decend

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:46Z
Date: November 7, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16
 
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
15:39:00Z 19.883N 84.817W 375.7 mb
(~ 11.09 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 417 meters
(~ 1,368 feet) From 276° at 4 knots
(From the W at ~ 4.6 mph) -17.2°C
(~ 1.0°F) -26.5°C
(~ -15.7°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 38.0 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 950.0%
15:39:30Z 19.867N 84.783W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,040 meters
(~ 26,378 feet) - 415 meters
(~ 1,362 feet) From 258° at 3 knots
(From between the WSW and W at ~ 3.4 mph) -17.5°C
(~ 0.5°F) -28.7°C
(~ -19.7°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 38.0 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 1266.7%
15:40:00Z 19.867N 84.750W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,038 meters
(~ 26,371 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 268° at 2 knots
(From the W at ~ 2.3 mph) -17.3°C
(~ 0.9°F) -27.2°C
(~ -17.0°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.7 knots (~ 28.4 mph)
 1233.3%
15:40:30Z 19.850N 84.700W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,032 meters
(~ 26,352 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 292° at 5 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.1°C
(~ 1.2°F) -23.8°C
(~ -10.8°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.7 knots (~ 36.4 mph)
 633.3%
15:41:00Z 19.850N 84.667W 375.7 mb
(~ 11.09 inHg) 8,043 meters
(~ 26,388 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 298° at 4 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 4.6 mph) -17.2°C
(~ 1.0°F) -24.8°C
(~ -12.6°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 20.6 knots (~ 23.7 mph)
 514.3%
15:41:30Z 19.833N 84.633W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,043 meters
(~ 26,388 feet) - 419 meters
(~ 1,375 feet) From 294° at 9 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 10.3 mph) -17.0°C
(~ 1.4°F) -27.4°C
(~ -17.3°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 33.3 knots (~ 38.3 mph)
 370.0%
15:42:00Z 19.833N 84.600W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 419 meters
(~ 1,375 feet) From 286° at 10 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 11.5 mph) -17.0°C
(~ 1.4°F) -25.9°C
(~ -14.6°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 32.7 knots (~ 37.6 mph)
 327.3%
15:42:30Z 19.833N 84.550W 375.3 mb
(~ 11.08 inHg) 8,050 meters
(~ 26,411 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 8° at 6 knots
(From the N at ~ 6.9 mph) -17.5°C
(~ 0.5°F) -21.9°C
(~ -7.4°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 27.8 knots (~ 31.9 mph)
 462.5%
15:43:00Z 19.817N 84.517W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,042 meters
(~ 26,385 feet) - 418 meters
(~ 1,371 feet) From 26° at 7 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 8.0 mph) -17.5°C
(~ 0.5°F) -24.1°C
(~ -11.4°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.2 knots (~ 38.2 mph)
 475.0%
15:43:30Z 19.817N 84.483W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,035 meters
(~ 26,362 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 41° at 11 knots
(From the NE at ~ 12.6 mph) -17.5°C
(~ 0.5°F) -24.4°C
(~ -11.9°F) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 33.0 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
 300.0%
15:44:00Z 19.800N 84.450W 375.7 mb
(~ 11.09 inHg) 8,043 meters
(~ 26,388 feet) - 416 meters
(~ 1,365 feet) From 46° at 14 knots
(From the NE at ~ 16.1 mph) -17.9°C
(~ -0.2°F) -21.8°C
(~ -7.2°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 35.5 knots (~ 40.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 253.3%
15:44:30Z 19.800N 84.400W 378.1 mb
(~ 11.17 inHg) 7,995 meters
(~ 26,230 feet) - 411 meters
(~ 1,348 feet) From 66° at 12 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 13.8 mph) -17.5°C*
(~ 0.5°F*) -* 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 37.0 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 308.3%
15:45:00Z 19.783N 84.367W 387.2 mb
(~ 11.43 inHg) 7,821 meters
(~ 25,659 feet) - 403 meters
(~ 1,322 feet) From 94° at 12 knots
(From the E at ~ 13.8 mph) -16.5°C
(~ 2.3°F) -21.3°C
(~ -6.3°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 33.4 knots (~ 38.4 mph)
 278.6%
15:45:30Z 19.783N 84.317W 397.5 mb
(~ 11.74 inHg) 7,624 meters
(~ 25,013 feet) - 393 meters
(~ 1,289 feet) From 95° at 15 knots
(From the E at ~ 17.2 mph) -14.9°C*
(~ 5.2°F*) -17.9°C*
(~ -0.2°F*) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 266.7%
15:46:00Z 19.767N 84.267W 409.6 mb
(~ 12.10 inHg) 7,389 meters
(~ 24,242 feet) - 375 meters
(~ 1,230 feet) From 114° at 13 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 14.9 mph) -13.5°C*
(~ 7.7°F*) -14.2°C*
(~ 6.4°F*) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 35.5 knots (~ 40.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 273.3%
15:46:30Z 19.767N 84.233W 424.1 mb
(~ 12.52 inHg) 7,128 meters
(~ 23,386 feet) - 357 meters
(~ 1,171 feet) From 147° at 20 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 23.0 mph) -11.9°C
(~ 10.6°F) -13.9°C
(~ 7.0°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 40.9 knots (~ 47.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 204.5%
15:47:00Z 19.750N 84.183W 440.4 mb
(~ 13.01 inHg) 6,835 meters
(~ 22,425 feet) - 336 meters
(~ 1,102 feet) From 140° at 24 knots
(From the SE at ~ 27.6 mph) -10.3°C
(~ 13.5°F) -11.3°C
(~ 11.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 44.0 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 183.3%
15:47:30Z 19.750N 84.150W 458.0 mb
(~ 13.52 inHg) 6,544 meters
(~ 21,470 feet) - 327 meters
(~ 1,073 feet) From 142° at 28 knots
(From the SE at ~ 32.2 mph) -8.7°C*
(~ 16.3°F*) -* 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 38.5 knots (~ 44.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 137.5%
15:48:00Z 19.733N 84.100W 470.5 mb
(~ 13.89 inHg) 6,333 meters
(~ 20,778 feet) - 317 meters
(~ 1,040 feet) From 135° at 34 knots
(From the SE at ~ 39.1 mph) -7.6°C
(~ 18.3°F) -9.3°C
(~ 15.3°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 42.5 knots (~ 48.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 125.0%
15:48:30Z 19.733N 84.067W 486.7 mb
(~ 14.37 inHg) 6,076 meters
(~ 19,934 feet) - 304 meters
(~ 997 feet) From 132° at 35 knots
(From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph) -6.3°C
(~ 20.7°F) -8.0°C
(~ 17.6°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 128.6%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
At 15:39:00Z (first observation), the observation was 157 miles (253 km) to the SE (124°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
At 15:48:30Z (last observation), the observation was 188 miles (302 km) to the S (187°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.


[littlevince]

[blp]

[Sanibel]

Caribbean systems moving along the SW periphery of a ridge usually intensify (think Katrina) but this one is too late in the year. The ridge is fetching in cooler Atlantic air and pushing Ida in towards the cold front and shear. There's real head-chopping shear visible on satellite 6-700 miles to Ida's north.

[cycloneye]

Plane decending to operational altitud.Lets see how strong Ida is.Go to the recon thread for the information of the data.

[drezee]

Plane decending to operational altitud.Lets see how strong Ida is.

the could have punched the center, but decided to turn left and do the NE quad first...

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 071556
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 17 20091107
154900 1943N 08402W 5056 05773 0284 -046 -054 138038 041 045 012 00
154930 1943N 08400W 5253 05470 0263 -034 -035 131041 042 047 012 00
155000 1942N 08357W 5444 05183 0243 -021 -021 120043 043 046 011 00
155030 1942N 08355W 5661 04868 0072 -008 -013 114038 040 046 012 03
155100 1942N 08353W 5901 04522 0083 +000 -003 112036 037 047 011 03
155130 1941N 08351W 6140 04219 0138 -000 -000 111032 034 044 008 00
155200 1941N 08350W 6396 03883 0138 +015 +015 102027 029 044 037 03
155230 1941N 08348W 6656 03559 0131 +035 +035 093022 024 045 008 00
155300 1940N 08346W 6912 03247 0127 +054 +049 093027 033 999 999 03
155330 1940N 08344W 7142 02968 0110 +079 +062 095035 036 039 008 00
155400 1939N 08342W 7371 02704 0106 +096 +074 101038 040 039 008 00
155430 1939N 08340W 7623 02422 0104 +112 +084 106038 039 042 006 00
155500 1939N 08338W 7880 02145 0114 +122 +087 101040 042 040 009 00
155530 1938N 08337W 8140 01867 0120 +126 +086 105040 041 042 011 03
155600 1938N 08335W 8398 01597 0116 +135 +086 099035 036 043 011 03
155630 1938N 08335W 8398 01597 0105 +147 +088 095035 038 041 010 00
155700 1937N 08332W 8425 01563 0105 +144 +092 085038 040 042 010 00
155730 1937N 08331W 8432 01557 0103 +148 +096 091038 039 041 010 00
155800 1937N 08330W 8428 01563 0105 +144 +098 093039 039 041 013 00
155830 1937N 08328W 8432 01556 0109 +137 +101 091040 042 044 016 00
$$

[littlevince]

[cycloneye]

Ob 17 Decoded

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:56Z
Date: November 7, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
 
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
15:49:00Z 19.717N 84.033W 505.6 mb
(~ 14.93 inHg) 5,773 meters
(~ 18,940 feet) - 284 meters
(~ 932 feet) From 138° at 38 knots
(From the SE at ~ 43.7 mph) -4.6°C
(~ 23.7°F) -5.4°C
(~ 22.3°F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 12 mm/hr
(~ 0.47 in/hr) 41.7 knots (~ 48.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 109.8%
15:49:30Z 19.717N 84.000W 525.3 mb
(~ 15.51 inHg) 5,470 meters
(~ 17,946 feet) - 263 meters
(~ 863 feet) From 131° at 41 knots
(From the SE at ~ 47.1 mph) -3.4°C
(~ 25.9°F) -3.5°C
(~ 25.7°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph) 12 mm/hr
(~ 0.47 in/hr) 45.9 knots (~ 52.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 111.9%
15:50:00Z 19.700N 83.950W 544.4 mb
(~ 16.08 inHg) 5,183 meters
(~ 17,005 feet) - 243 meters
(~ 797 feet) From 120° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) -2.1°C
(~ 28.2°F) -2.1°C
(~ 28.2°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 11 mm/hr
(~ 0.43 in/hr) 46.0 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.0%
15:50:30Z 19.700N 83.917W 566.1 mb
(~ 16.72 inHg) 4,868 meters
(~ 15,971 feet) 1007.2 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg) - From 114° at 38 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 43.7 mph) -0.8°C
(~ 30.6°F) -1.3°C
(~ 29.7°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 46 knots*
(~ 52.9 mph*) 12 mm/hr*
(~ 0.47 in/hr*) 43.7 knots* (~ 50.3 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 115.0%*
15:51:00Z 19.700N 83.883W 590.1 mb
(~ 17.43 inHg) 4,522 meters
(~ 14,836 feet) 1008.3 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 112° at 36 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 41.4 mph) 0.0°C
(~ 32.0°F) -0.3°C
(~ 31.5°F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 47 knots*
(~ 54.0 mph*) 11 mm/hr*
(~ 0.43 in/hr*) 45.7 knots* (~ 52.6 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 127.0%*
15:51:30Z 19.683N 83.850W 614.0 mb
(~ 18.13 inHg) 4,219 meters
(~ 13,842 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 111° at 32 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 36.8 mph) -0.0°C
(~ 32.0°F) -0.0°C
(~ 32.0°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 41.4 knots (~ 47.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 129.4%
15:52:00Z 19.683N 83.833W 639.6 mb
(~ 18.89 inHg) 3,883 meters
(~ 12,740 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 102° at 27 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 31.0 mph) 1.5°C
(~ 34.7°F) 1.5°C
(~ 34.7°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 44 knots*
(~ 50.6 mph*) 37 mm/hr*
(~ 1.46 in/hr*) 41.0 knots* (~ 47.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 151.7%*
15:52:30Z 19.683N 83.800W 665.6 mb
(~ 19.66 inHg) 3,559 meters
(~ 11,677 feet) 1013.1 mb
(~ 29.92 inHg) - From 93° at 22 knots
(From the E at ~ 25.3 mph) 3.5°C
(~ 38.3°F) 3.5°C
(~ 38.3°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 41.2 knots (~ 47.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 187.5%
15:53:00Z 19.667N 83.767W 691.2 mb
(~ 20.41 inHg) 3,247 meters
(~ 10,653 feet) 1012.7 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 93° at 27 knots
(From the E at ~ 31.0 mph) 5.4°C
(~ 41.7°F) 4.9°C
(~ 40.8°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) - - - -
15:53:30Z 19.667N 83.733W 714.2 mb
(~ 21.09 inHg) 2,968 meters
(~ 9,738 feet) 1011.0 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 95° at 35 knots
(From the E at ~ 40.2 mph) 7.9°C
(~ 46.2°F) 6.2°C
(~ 43.2°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 37.9 knots (~ 43.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 108.3%
15:54:00Z 19.650N 83.700W 737.1 mb
(~ 21.77 inHg) 2,704 meters
(~ 8,871 feet) 1010.6 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 101° at 38 knots
(From between the E and ESE at ~ 43.7 mph) 9.6°C
(~ 49.3°F) 7.4°C
(~ 45.3°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 37.0 knots (~ 42.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 97.5%
15:54:30Z 19.650N 83.667W 762.3 mb
(~ 22.51 inHg) 2,422 meters
(~ 7,946 feet) 1010.4 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 106° at 38 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 43.7 mph) 11.2°C
(~ 52.2°F) 8.4°C
(~ 47.1°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.7%
15:55:00Z 19.650N 83.633W 788.0 mb
(~ 23.27 inHg) 2,145 meters
(~ 7,037 feet) 1011.4 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 101° at 40 knots
(From between the E and ESE at ~ 46.0 mph) 12.2°C
(~ 54.0°F) 8.7°C
(~ 47.7°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 38.1 knots (~ 43.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.2%
15:55:30Z 19.633N 83.617W 814.0 mb
(~ 24.04 inHg) 1,867 meters
(~ 6,125 feet) 1012.0 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 105° at 40 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph) 12.6°C
(~ 54.7°F) 8.6°C
(~ 47.5°F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 42 knots*
(~ 48.3 mph*) 11 mm/hr*
(~ 0.43 in/hr*) 41.0 knots* (~ 47.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 102.4%*
15:56:00Z 19.633N 83.583W 839.8 mb
(~ 24.80 inHg) 1,597 meters
(~ 5,240 feet) 1011.6 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 99° at 35 knots
(From the E at ~ 40.2 mph) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F) 8.6°C
(~ 47.5°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 43 knots*
(~ 49.4 mph*) 11 mm/hr*
(~ 0.43 in/hr*) 41.8 knots* (~ 48.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 119.4%*
15:56:30Z 19.633N 83.583W 839.8 mb
(~ 24.80 inHg) 1,597 meters
(~ 5,240 feet) 1010.5 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 95° at 35 knots
(From the E at ~ 40.2 mph) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 8.8°C
(~ 47.8°F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 37.8 knots (~ 43.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.9%
15:57:00Z 19.617N 83.533W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,563 meters
(~ 5,128 feet) 1010.5 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 85° at 38 knots
(From the E at ~ 43.7 mph) 14.4°C
(~ 57.9°F) 9.2°C
(~ 48.6°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 39.9 knots (~ 45.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 105.0%
15:57:30Z 19.617N 83.517W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,557 meters
(~ 5,108 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 91° at 38 knots
(From the E at ~ 43.7 mph) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 9.6°C
(~ 49.3°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 39.9 knots (~ 45.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 105.1%
15:58:00Z 19.617N 83.500W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,563 meters
(~ 5,128 feet) 1010.5 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 93° at 39 knots
(From the E at ~ 44.8 mph) 14.4°C
(~ 57.9°F) 9.8°C
(~ 49.6°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 105.1%
15:58:30Z 19.617N 83.467W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,556 meters
(~ 5,105 feet) 1010.9 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 91° at 40 knots
(From the E at ~ 46.0 mph) 13.7°C
(~ 56.7°F) 10.1°C
(~ 50.2°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr) 41.9 knots (~ 48.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 104.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
At 15:49:00Z (first observation), the observation was 189 miles (304 km) to the S (187°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
At 15:58:30Z (last observation), the observation was 137 miles (221 km) to the W (279°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).


[Blown Away]

Caribbean systems moving along the SW periphery of a ridge usually intensify (think Katrina) but this one is too late in the year. The ridge is fetching in cooler Atlantic air and pushing Ida in towards the cold front and shear. There's real head-chopping shear visible on satellite 6-700 miles to Ida's north.

IF Ida were ever to have a CONUS landfall as a strong TS or hurricane it would have to move towards southern Florida. The north track into the East/Central GOM will bring Ida into cool waters and high shear.

[Sanibel]

Captain Kirk. I've detected a small bursting cyclone on a small planet named Earth in a nearby galaxy:

[blp]

I think the key for a NGOM landfall will be for it to maintain its speed above 5mph. If it slows down or stalls just for a while it could make a big difference and stay out over the GOM. It seems to be slowing down a bit. Let's see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Ob 18

000
URNT15 KNHC 071606
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 18 20091107
155900 1936N 08327W 8428 01558 0109 +135 +102 092039 040 045 014 00
155930 1936N 08325W 8432 01558 0111 +135 +103 089039 043 048 015 00
160000 1936N 08324W 8429 01559 0111 +134 +104 097042 043 050 022 00
160030 1936N 08323W 8428 01561 0108 +140 +105 101041 042 045 015 00
160100 1935N 08321W 8432 01558 0103 +148 +105 102040 040 043 009 00
160130 1935N 08320W 8429 01561 0103 +148 +106 103043 044 042 009 00
160200 1935N 08319W 8429 01561 0101 +152 +106 103044 045 042 008 00
160230 1934N 08317W 8432 01560 0098 +156 +107 103044 045 041 007 00
160300 1934N 08316W 8425 01569 0098 +158 +109 102043 043 041 008 00
160330 1934N 08315W 8431 01560 0098 +158 +111 101045 046 038 008 00
160400 1934N 08313W 8430 01560 0099 +156 +112 102045 045 039 008 00
160430 1933N 08312W 8429 01562 0101 +150 +114 102046 046 040 009 00
160500 1933N 08311W 8429 01564 0103 +150 +114 105047 048 043 007 00
160530 1933N 08309W 8436 01558 0107 +147 +115 105049 050 042 008 03
160600 1932N 08309W 8425 01569 0109 +143 +115 106046 046 042 008 00
160630 1931N 08308W 8432 01560 0108 +141 +115 115044 045 041 007 00
160700 1930N 08307W 8430 01561 0103 +148 +114 117043 043 041 007 00
160730 1929N 08305W 8425 01565 0103 +148 +114 117042 043 038 007 00
160800 1928N 08304W 8429 01562 0098 +156 +113 119042 042 040 005 00
160830 1927N 08303W 8429 01561 0100 +153 +113 118042 042 040 005 00

[cycloneye]

Ob 18 Decoded

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 16:06Z
Date: November 7, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
 
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
15:59:00Z 19.600N 83.450W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,558 meters
(~ 5,112 feet) 1010.9 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 92° at 39 knots
(From the E at ~ 44.8 mph) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F) 10.2°C
(~ 50.4°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 14 mm/hr
(~ 0.55 in/hr) 43.9 knots (~ 50.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 112.5%
15:59:30Z 19.600N 83.417W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,558 meters
(~ 5,112 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 89° at 39 knots
(From the E at ~ 44.8 mph) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F) 10.3°C
(~ 50.5°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 15 mm/hr
(~ 0.59 in/hr) 43.5 knots (~ 50.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 111.6%
16:00:00Z 19.600N 83.400W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,559 meters
(~ 5,115 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 97° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) 13.4°C
(~ 56.1°F) 10.4°C
(~ 50.7°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 22 mm/hr
(~ 0.87 in/hr) 48.8 knots (~ 56.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 116.3%
16:00:30Z 19.600N 83.383W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1010.8 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 101° at 41 knots
(From between the E and ESE at ~ 47.1 mph) 14.0°C
(~ 57.2°F) 10.5°C
(~ 50.9°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 15 mm/hr
(~ 0.59 in/hr) 43.9 knots (~ 50.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.1%
16:01:00Z 19.583N 83.350W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,558 meters
(~ 5,112 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 102° at 40 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 10.5°C
(~ 50.9°F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 43.0 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.5%
16:01:30Z 19.583N 83.333W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 103° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.5%
16:02:00Z 19.583N 83.317W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 103° at 44 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 50.6 mph) 15.2°C
(~ 59.4°F) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 41.1 knots (~ 47.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 93.3%
16:02:30Z 19.567N 83.283W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 103° at 44 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 50.6 mph) 15.6°C
(~ 60.1°F) 10.7°C
(~ 51.3°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 40.1 knots (~ 46.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 91.1%
16:03:00Z 19.567N 83.267W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,569 meters
(~ 5,148 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 102° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 15.8°C
(~ 60.4°F) 10.9°C
(~ 51.6°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.3%
16:03:30Z 19.567N 83.250W 843.1 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 101° at 45 knots
(From between the E and ESE at ~ 51.7 mph) 15.8°C
(~ 60.4°F) 11.1°C
(~ 52.0°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 37.2 knots (~ 42.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 82.6%
16:04:00Z 19.567N 83.217W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 102° at 45 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 51.7 mph) 15.6°C
(~ 60.1°F) 11.2°C
(~ 52.2°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 86.7%
16:04:30Z 19.550N 83.200W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,562 meters
(~ 5,125 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 102° at 46 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 52.9 mph) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 87.0%
16:05:00Z 19.550N 83.183W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,564 meters
(~ 5,131 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 105° at 47 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 54.0 mph) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 42.1 knots (~ 48.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 89.6%
16:05:30Z 19.550N 83.150W 843.6 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,558 meters
(~ 5,112 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 105° at 49 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 56.3 mph) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 42 knots*
(~ 48.3 mph*) 8 mm/hr*
(~ 0.31 in/hr*) 41.2 knots* (~ 47.3 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 84.0%*
16:06:00Z 19.533N 83.150W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,569 meters
(~ 5,148 feet) 1010.9 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 106° at 46 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 52.9 mph) 14.3°C
(~ 57.7°F) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 42.0 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 91.3%
16:06:30Z 19.517N 83.133W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1010.8 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 115° at 44 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 50.6 mph) 14.1°C
(~ 57.4°F) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 40.1 knots (~ 46.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 91.1%
16:07:00Z 19.500N 83.117W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 117° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.3%
16:07:30Z 19.483N 83.083W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,565 meters
(~ 5,135 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 117° at 42 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 48.3 mph) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 37.1 knots (~ 42.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.4%
16:08:00Z 19.467N 83.067W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,562 meters
(~ 5,125 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 119° at 42 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 48.3 mph) 15.6°C
(~ 60.1°F) 11.3°C
(~ 52.3°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.2%
16:08:30Z 19.450N 83.050W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 118° at 42 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 48.3 mph) 15.3°C
(~ 59.5°F) 11.3°C
(~ 52.3°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
At 15:59:00Z (first observation), the observation was 136 miles (219 km) to the W (279°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
At 16:08:30Z (last observation), the observation was 109 miles (176 km) to the W (275°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).


[Blown Away]

I think the key for a NGOM landfall will be for it to maintain its speed above 5mph. If it slows down or stalls just for a while it could make a big difference and stay out over the GOM. It seems to be slowing down a bit. Let's see what happens.

Not sure if it is slowing, may be the CDO expanding? Any stall or significant slowing over the next few days removes the N Gulf Coast threat IMO.