ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[wxman57]

We could just have a heavily-sheared TS moving rapidly into the FL Panhandle on Tuesday.

[hurricanetrack]

Thanks Luis. Too old to read that stuff anymore... just turned 39 you know. Thanks for taking the wheel and giving it a shot- it is appreciated.

[littlevince]

[KWT]

Recon already finding 50-55kts at FL in the outer parts of the Ne quadrant, going to be interesting to see how strong it is in the developing eyewall.

[cycloneye]

Plane ready to reach center.See the decoded data at recon thread.Last data was a 55kt at flight level.

[Sanibel]

This forecast was a relief for me personally because our house isn't covered by hurricane insurance right now. We had a dispute because they failed to discount us for our storm shutters, roof reinforcement, and hipped roof, so we let it lapse until we straightened it out. If you want to get nervous have your house uninsured while one of the worst Atlantic RI systems is bursting south of you with a forecast to track north.

[brunota2003]

Thanks Luis. Too old to read that stuff anymore... just turned 39 you know. Thanks for taking the wheel and giving it a shot- it is appreciated.

I agree with it being long...good try, but this comp I'm on doesn't scroll properly, so

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071626
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 20 20091107
161900 1901N 08317W 8437 01534 0084 +140 +111 103054 057 047 017 00
161930 1900N 08319W 8436 01536 0092 +139 +113 108047 050 044 023 00
162000 1859N 08320W 8441 01534 0084 +154 +114 128048 049 043 009 00
162030 1858N 08321W 8433 01542 0079 +160 +116 130046 047 040 006 00
162100 1856N 08322W 8426 01548 0076 +162 +117 134047 048 041 005 00
162130 1855N 08324W 8431 01543 0075 +159 +120 134048 049 042 004 00
162200 1854N 08325W 8429 01540 0071 +158 +123 132049 050 042 004 00
162230 1853N 08326W 8433 01535 0073 +153 +125 131048 049 042 007 00
162300 1852N 08327W 8428 01537 0073 +145 +125 135047 048 043 009 00
162330 1851N 08328W 8430 01534 0068 +154 +125 137053 057 044 013 00
162400 1850N 08330W 8420 01538 0061 +156 +123 136054 056 046 013 00
162430 1848N 08331W 8419 01532 0063 +144 +122 122057 059 048 020 00
162500 1847N 08332W 8445 01509 0070 +138 +122 134056 057 049 013 00
162530 1846N 08333W 8420 01533 0054 +153 +121 132055 057 051 009 00
162600 1845N 08335W 8439 01508 0059 +140 +119 133056 058 052 012 00
162630 1844N 08336W 8414 01533 0051 +147 +119 138059 063 052 014 00
162700 1843N 08337W 8443 01504 0043 +160 +119 140056 058 052 008 00
162730 1842N 08338W 8416 01526 0037 +161 +121 140060 061 050 005 00
162800 1841N 08339W 8433 01504 0029 +167 +124 146063 065 054 005 00
162830 1840N 08340W 8425 01505 0024 +168 +127 147063 066 053 006 00

66kts at flight level

[cycloneye]

66 kts at flight level

[Blown Away]

This forecast was a relief for me personally because our house isn't covered by hurricane insurance right now. We had a dispute because they failed to discount us for our storm shutters, roof reinforcement, and hipped roof, so we let it lapse until we straightened it out. If you want to get nervous have your house uninsured while one of the worst Altantic RI systems is bursting south of you with a forecast to track north.

Been there and done that, keep fighting for what is right!!!!

[RattleMan]

Ob 20

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:19:00z   19°01'N   83°17'W   843.7 hPa   1534m   1008.4 hPa   14°C   11.1°C   103° @ 54kt     57kt   47kt   17mm   OK
16:19:30z   19°00'N   83°19'W   843.6 hPa   1536m   1009.2 hPa   13.9°C   11.3°C   108° @ 47kt     50kt   44kt   23mm   OK
16:20:00z   18°59'N   83°20'W   844.1 hPa   1534m   1008.4 hPa   15.4°C   11.4°C   128° @ 48kt     49kt   43kt   9mm   OK
16:20:30z   18°58'N   83°21'W   843.3 hPa   1542m   1007.9 hPa   16°C   11.6°C   130° @ 46kt     47kt   40kt   6mm   OK
16:21:00z   18°56'N   83°22'W   842.6 hPa   1548m   1007.6 hPa   16.2°C   11.7°C   134° @ 47kt     48kt   41kt   5mm   OK
16:21:30z   18°55'N   83°24'W   843.1 hPa   1543m   1007.5 hPa   15.9°C   12°C   134° @ 48kt     49kt   42kt   4mm   OK
16:22:00z   18°54'N   83°25'W   842.9 hPa   1540m   1007.1 hPa   15.8°C   12.3°C   132° @ 49kt     50kt   42kt   4mm   OK
16:22:30z   18°53'N   83°26'W   843.3 hPa   1535m   1007.3 hPa   15.3°C   12.5°C   131° @ 48kt     49kt   42kt   7mm   OK
16:23:00z   18°52'N   83°27'W   842.8 hPa   1537m   1007.3 hPa   14.5°C   12.5°C   135° @ 47kt     48kt   43kt   9mm   OK
16:23:30z   18°51'N   83°28'W   843.0 hPa   1534m   1006.8 hPa   15.4°C   12.5°C   137° @ 53kt     57kt   44kt   13mm   OK
16:24:00z   18°50'N   83°30'W   842.0 hPa   1538m   1006.1 hPa   15.6°C   12.3°C   136° @ 54kt     56kt   46kt   13mm   OK
16:24:30z   18°48'N   83°31'W   841.9 hPa   1532m   1006.3 hPa   14.4°C   12.2°C   122° @ 57kt     59kt   48kt   20mm   OK
16:25:00z   18°47'N   83°32'W   844.5 hPa   1509m   1007.0 hPa   13.8°C   12.2°C   134° @ 56kt     57kt   49kt   13mm   OK
16:25:30z   18°46'N   83°33'W   842.0 hPa   1533m   1005.4 hPa   15.3°C   12.1°C   132° @ 55kt     57kt   51kt   9mm   OK
16:26:00z   18°45'N   83°35'W   843.9 hPa   1508m   1005.9 hPa   14°C   11.9°C   133° @ 56kt     58kt   52kt   12mm   OK
16:26:30z   18°44'N   83°36'W   841.4 hPa   1533m   1005.1 hPa   14.7°C   11.9°C   138° @ 59kt     63kt   52kt   14mm   OK
16:27:00z   18°43'N   83°37'W   844.3 hPa   1504m   1004.3 hPa   16°C   11.9°C   140° @ 56kt     58kt   52kt   8mm   OK
16:27:30z   18°42'N   83°38'W   841.6 hPa   1526m   1003.7 hPa   16.1°C   12.1°C   140° @ 60kt     61kt   50kt   5mm   OK
16:28:00z   18°41'N   83°39'W   843.3 hPa   1504m   1002.9 hPa   16.7°C   12.4°C   146° @ 63kt     65kt   54kt   5mm   OK
16:28:30z   18°40'N   83°40'W   842.5 hPa   1505m   1002.4 hPa   16.8°C   12.7°C   147° @ 63kt     66kt   53kt   6mm   OK

Max:   19°01'N   83°40'W   844.5 hPa   1548m   1009.2 hPa   16.8°C   12.7°C   63kt   66kt   54kt   23mm   
Min:   18°40'N   83°17'W   841.4 hPa   1504m   1002.4 hPa   13.8°C   11.1°C   46kt   47kt   40kt   4mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   843 hPa   1529m   1006.3 hPa   15.3°C   12°C   53kt   55kt   47kt   10mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


[brunota2003]

Smurf picked up 54 knots, highest so far.

[BZSTORM]

thanks littlevince for the graphic map, this I can understand

[WindRunner]

Dropsonde in one of the "bands"...

UZNT13 KNHC 071629
XXAA 57168 99190 70833 04593 99007 25407 09541 00064 24808 09040
92748 21205 10043 85476 14824 11546 88999 77999
31313 09608 81619
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 05
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1899N08334W 1621 MBL WND 10044 AEV 20800 DLM W
ND 10545 006843 WL150 09543 082 REL 1899N08332W 161943 SPG 1901N0
8333W 162111 =
XXBB 57168 99190 70833 04593 00007 25407 11937 22813 22850 14824
33843 14026
21212 00007 09541 11000 09040 22992 09546 33979 10546 44936 10041
55924 10043 66919 09548 77908 10544 88892 09550 99843 12046
31313 09608 81619
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 05
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1899N08334W 1621 MBL WND 10044 AEV 20800 DLM W
ND 10545 006843 WL150 09543 082 REL 1899N08332W 161943 SPG 1901N0
8333W 162111 =
;

That's a 41kt sfc wind, for those who want to know.

[Evil Jeremy]

I smell special advisory later this afternoon...

[littlevince]

[Sanibel]

From the Dvorak I wouldn't exclude a few intensification jerks right to hurricane over the next few hours.


Ida did RI before and can do it again. The Dvorak is much more hurricane than TS.

[Javlin]

This forecast was a relief for me personally because our house isn't covered by hurricane insurance right now. We had a dispute because they failed to discount us for our storm shutters, roof reinforcement, and hipped roof, so we let it lapse until we straightened it out. If you want to get nervous have your house uninsured while one of the worst Atlantic RI systems is bursting south of you with a forecast to track north.

I do not think this will really be that much to be concerned about just a small wind event.If I have too take a system this is the the kind I would want not an organized CatII and up.

edit:did not see the part in blue at first Sanibel;apologies.Kevin

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking the looks of this one bit, with her forward speed increasing, shear moving more parallel with her direction and her looking like she might get stronger in the NW Carib. than forecasted she could be a very top end TS wind speed once she reaches the panhandle if she does make it that far north before the turn eastward.

Don't like the looks of that 12z GFS Ivan!!

[Blown Away]

Maybe that ridge is starting to push Ida a little more towards the NW?