ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

By the way good call on detailing the LLC forming on the N side Aric. I did not think that it would look this good this soon. The ULL tot he SW is filling in and the one to the NW is retreating westward. Looks like ULL is actully a little faster than the system, which did not look like it was going to pan out that way this morning.

[Derek Ortt]

plots not worth much with the center likely to reform to the north

[expat2carib]

Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I'm poisoned by information. Here is my question.

[Derek Ortt]

there are no numbers of a depression

you get T 1.0 tropical storms in the Gulf. It is a closed circ and appropriate winds that make a system a cyclone, not T numbers

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009090100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 543W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 010042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 0000 090901 1200 090902 0000 090902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 54.3W 16.4N 56.4W 17.4N 57.9W 18.1N 59.5W
BAMD 15.4N 54.3W 16.4N 56.2W 17.1N 57.9W 17.5N 59.3W
BAMM 15.4N 54.3W 16.2N 56.1W 16.9N 57.5W 17.3N 58.8W
LBAR 15.4N 54.3W 16.5N 56.2W 17.1N 58.1W 17.4N 60.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090903 0000 090904 0000 090905 0000 090906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 60.8W 20.2N 63.8W 21.6N 67.3W 22.5N 71.4W
BAMD 17.9N 60.5W 18.5N 63.0W 19.0N 65.4W 18.8N 67.8W
BAMM 17.7N 59.7W 18.1N 61.8W 18.6N 64.1W 18.7N 67.1W
LBAR 17.8N 62.0W 18.4N 66.0W 19.6N 68.9W 19.6N 70.8W
SHIP 55KTS 72KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 72KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Aric Dunn]

there are no numbers of a depression

you get T 1.0 tropical storms in the Gulf. It is a closed circ and appropriate winds that make a system a cyclone, not T numbers

well thats true.. but they typically seem to upgrade when they are 2.0 in the absence of recon data.

[deltadog03]

Well, this might be about take off time for this little booger. The upper-anticyclone is clearly starting to move with "94L" to the west. I think they will wait to see if this bursts not only sustains itself, but wait until we get VIS shots. Upgrade maybe tomorrow at 11am.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, this might be about take off time for this little booger. The upper-anticyclone is clearly starting to move with "94L" to the west. I think they will wait to see if this bursts not only sustains itself, but wait until we get VIS shots. Upgrade maybe tomorrow at 11am.

yeah quite possible.. 2am outlook should be interesting .. or just a cut and paste being that its 2am ..

[BensonTCwatcher]

yeah that seems more likely wait till tomorrow's visibles come in. I don't think are there surface Obs close enough to do otherwise.

[expat2carib]

Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I'm poisoned by information. Here is my question.

Any feedback would be appreciated

[Derek Ortt]

well... SHIPS/GFS show strong shear at 120 hours. Guess we now know a large upper anti-cyclone with a triple outflow channel will form

[Nimbus]

The elongated circulation has been a problem since 94L was born. It looks as though the persistent convection has started to focus the LLC better. Even though the convection has been displaced a little east of the circulation much of the day look at the difference in structure from 24 hours ago!

[deltadog03]

LOL Derek!!! WOW GFS is terrible!!! I am more of a winter buff, but as bad as it is now....Can't wait to see how terrible it will be this winter.

[Sanibel]

Black IR means go for throttle up.

[Blown Away]

Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I'm poisoned by information. Here is my question.

Any feedback would be appreciated

Seems most of the models are just N of your area. Doesn't seem 94L is going to rapidly strengthen before reaching your longitude. There may be decent chance you will see TS force winds, if it were me I would be on a porch w/ a cooler somewhere watching them go bye.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Have we even seen black IR this close in (Bill?) this year?

[Dean4Storms]

Some very intense storms, looks like we are getting there very gradually!

[cycloneye]

This is the best 94L has been since it emerged Africa.

[Aric Dunn]

This is the best 94L has been since it emerged Africa.

yeah for sure..