ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[expat2carib]

Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I'm poisoned by information. Here is my question.

Any feedback would be appreciated

Seems most of the models are just N of your area. Doesn't seem 94L is going to rapidly strengthen before reaching your longitude. There may be decent chance you will see TS force winds, if it were me I would be on a porch w/ a cooler somewhere watching them go bye.

Thanks! Appreciated ! I have some extra beers in the cooler. Just in case

[cycloneye]

The presentation in sattelite tonight makes inevitable that recon goes tommorow afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

The presentation in sattelite tonight makes inevitable that recon goes tommorow afternoon.

yeah its going .. cant see any reason why they would not go now.. since it will be approaching the islands by morning..

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see them canceling unless it totally loses all convection, especially after the deep convection we see tonight!

[gatorcane]

UKMET moves it through Puerto Rico then Haiti:



In 120 hours though, heights really starting to build across the Western Atlantic:

[GeneratorPower]

Man, that is a nice blowup of convection.

[Driftin]

how come the 94L is gone from the map on top? Does that mean that they are going to upgrade this thing?

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get too excited yet. The 00Z position is still about 100 mils SW of that convective burst. You won't be able to tell much at all using IR imagery tonight. You have to use a combination of visible imagery and actual surface obs to determine what's really happening. Surface obs from the two buoys in the area don't indicate much happening yet (like LLC reforming northeast). Certainly not a TD now. Maybe tomorrow. The convective burst is impressive, anyway.

[Bocadude85]

Just got back in, is this moving to the NW now?

[otowntiger]

But where's 94L? That's the big question. Is he gonna go poof? That set up may be interesting and problematic for the SE coast, but with no storm what's the point?

[deltadog03]

NAM, yes its the NAM, but GREAT ouflow!!!




GFS pretty close to that as well.

[Macrocane]

Since this thing was designated as Invest 94-L I had a feeling that it was going to be the first September storm, that feeling was not based in any scientific factors but maybe it will come true. Certainly it looks pretty good but still elongated and I agree that we'll have to wait for the visible imagery or maybe until the recon.

[deltadog03]

[AtlanticWind]

I wouldn't get too excited yet. The 00Z position is still about 100 mils SW of that convective burst. You won't be able to tell much at all using IR imagery tonight. You have to use a combination of visible imagery and actual surface obs to determine what's really happening. Surface obs from the two buoys in the area don't indicate much happening yet (like LLC reforming northeast). Certainly not a TD now. Maybe tomorrow. The convective burst is impressive, anyway.

Too late, Im excited

[cycloneye]

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

[Evil Jeremy]

But where's 94L? That's the big question. Is he gonna go poof? That set up may be interesting and problematic for the SE coast, but with no storm what's the point?

Many of your posts with 94L have been talking about if it does not happen. According to the NHC and many others, it is more than likely to form. As for poofing, just check out the WV images this evening. Even if this is not going to form, the point is to prepare just in case. We cant wait for this to form to prepare, people should prepare in advance, before it even forms if necessary. Think about it, it is just a few days away from the Islands.

[gatorcane]

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

I have a feeling he will say strong means more of a recurve possibility (Bermuda threat???), weak means more west.......

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html


Outflow looks pretty good .

[gatorcane]

NAM, yes its the NAM, but GREAT ouflow!!!




GFS pretty close to that as well.

The NAM shows a pretty sharp trough in that pic NW of 94L. If it deepens, probably would recurve one would think.

[george_r_1961]

Derek,in past systems you talked about sometimes strong systems go more west and weak ones go north.What do you say about 94L?

I have a feeling he will say strong means more of a recurve possibility (Bermuda threat???), weak means more west.......

Weaker systems. not represented well at higher levels, usually get steered by the low level flow. Stronger systems usually are steered by higher level flow.